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The 2015 season saw several highly regarded hurlers make their debuts, but it also saw relative unknowns have major impacts for fantasy teams. When it was announced that Noah Syndergaard, Lance McCullers, and Carlos Rodon were making their big league debuts, everyone knew that near elite fantasy production was going to come as a result. But very few people expected people like Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, and Chris Heston to have the kind of big impacts that they did.
Starting pitchers are a place where the wary fantasy owners can really get an edge over other teams in their leagues. With there being so many starting pitchers available, it becomes a lot easier to find several sleepers that other fantasy owners may not be able to find. While everyone will expect big things out of Steven Matz, Tyler Glasnow, and Lucas Giolito, players like Colin Rea and John Lamb may go undrafted and could provide potentially well above-average fantasy production for 2016 fantasy teams.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.
Top 20 Prospects for 2016: Starting Pitcher
Here are the top 20 pitchers for fantasy baseball in 2016:
1. Steven Matz (NYM, MLB)
Stats: 35.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 8.58 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9
ETA: Opening Day roster
The only sure thing on this list, Steven Matz will enter the season as the Mets’ fourth starter barring any injury. The term ‘fourth starter’ sounds alarming until you consider who is ahead of him and that would be three potential Cy Young contenders. Matz proved last season that he is more than ready to face Major League hitters as he dominated all the way through the postseason. You can expect big things out of Matz next season and fantasy owners should consider taking him late in their fantasy drafts this season. He is too talented to pass up at this point.
2. Tyler Glasnow (PIT, AAA)
Stats: 41.0 IP, 2.20 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 10.54 K/9, 4.83 BB/9, 0.22 HR/9
ETA: Mid-April
The Pirates are so loaded in terms of pitching depth. According to the Fangraphs’ Pirates depth chart, Tyler Glasnow is currently the sixth starter behind the likes of Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, and Ryan Vogelsong. The Pirates will try to salvage Ryan Vogelsong after what has been a very unsuccessful past three years, but for a competing team in a tough division, don’t expect them to stick with him for too long if he doesn’t pan out. They will give Glasnow some time in Triple-A to start the season, but expect to see him in the rotation before too long. Glasnow is a future ace and a rookie of the year candidate in 2016 and is worth stashing even if he is not given a roster spot straight out of the gate. Fantasy owners should stash him in the later rounds of the draft as he will definitely spend a majority of 2016 in the majors and he possesses ace-like potential.
3. Lucas Giolito (WAS, AA)
Stats: 47.1 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 8.56 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9
ETA: Mid-May
Lucas Giolito could turn out to be a better pitcher than Tyler Glasnow, but his situation is less than favorable for fantasy owners to start off 2016. The Nationals have a lot of young pitching depth with arms like Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez locked in for 2016 rotation spots and Tanner Roark, Joe Ross, and AJ Cole all competing for the fourth and fifth spots. Giolito has not really dazzled in Spring Training (4.05 ERA in 6.2 innings), which only reaffirms the Nationals belief that he needs some more time to develop before he is big league ready. With the Nationals competing with the pitching-loaded Mets, the Nats will have short leashes on the fourth and fifth starters. Many people are expecting Giolito to make a Noah Syndergaard-esque promotion in 2016, where the Nationals wait until he really dominates Triple-A and then call him up. Few pitchers are worth stashing, but he has such immense upside that he is absolutely worth stashing right out of the draft.
4. Blake Snell (TB, AAA)
Stats: 44.1 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 11.57 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9
ETA: Late May
Blake Snell struggled greatly in Spring Training (5.79 ERA in 4.2 innings) before being sent to minor league camp and it ensured that he will not enter the season with the big league club. Even still, Snell has a great chance to eventually crack the Rays rotation if he can dominate early like he did last season. Snell exploded onto the scene last year, a season which saw him begin in High-A and finish in Triple-A (not to mention the fact that he dominated at every level). He may have struggled with control early in his career, but has put much of that debate to rest after he posted a 2.64 BB/9 in his 44.1 IP in Triple-A. He may not be worth stashing just yet, but if it looks like the Rays will promote him, immediately add him to your roster as he has the potential to be a future top of the rotation arm.
5. Jose Berrios (MIN, AAA)
Stats: 75.2 IP, 2.62 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 9.87 K/9, 1.67 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9
ETA: Late April
Jose Berrios will not begin the season in the Twins rotation, but much like seemingly every name on this list, it would be surprising to not see him in the starting five before the summer. Berrios has top of the rotation talent and proved at Triple-A last season that he doesn’t need much more conditioning. The Twins rotation is beginning to look like Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Kyle Gibson, and Ricky Nolasco, but Nolasco has had a dismal Spring and could be booted out in favor of Berrios if he does not show improvement in April. The Twins are in a position where if they push all the right buttons, they could potentially be in contention, so it would be entirely surprising to see Berrios promoted to help make them a more legit contender. Berrios has the upside to be worth stashing in the last round of the draft as it likely will not be long until he is promoted.
6. Jon Gray (COL, MLB)
Stats: 40.2 IP, 5.53 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 8.85 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9
ETA: Opening Day
There is a legitimate chance that Jon Gray will start Opening Day for the Rockies. Rockies’ fans are clamoring over the idea that he could finally be the ace that has yet to be found at Coors Field. Gray’s 5.53 ERA was very concerning, but there were some major positives to be taken away from his season: he thoroughly dominated on the road (2.70 ERA, 2.63 FIP); he proved that he can strikeout Major League hitters (8.85 K/9); and he had a very high ground ball to fly ball ratio at home (1.90) which shows that he can improve in Coors Field. Fantasy owners may not want to take a risk on him as a full time rotation spot owner, but he is ownable and at the very least he would be a great guy to stream when he is pitching on the road. With his stuff and proven talent, he could be the first ever ace of the Colorado Rockies in a couple of years.
7. John Lamb (CIN, MLB)
Stats: 49.2 IP, 5.80 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 10.51 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9
ETA: Late April
Injuries have pushed John Lamb out of a rotation spot for now, but he will likely rejoin the rotation once he is back to full health. Lamb’s 5.80 ERA in the majors last season was discouraging, but most of his peripherals showed a pitcher who was very unlucky. He possessed an xFIP of 3.73, a FIP of 4.16, and a SIERA of 3.56. When he returns to the rotation, Lamb becomes worthy of owning in 10+ team leagues. Don’t expect an ace, but a dependable middle of the rotation arm with strikeout upside can be counted on. Make no mistake, Lamb will reward fantasy owners who decide to own him this season.
8. Colin Rea (SD, MLB)
Stats: 31.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 7.39 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9
ETA: Opening Day
Colin Rea is similar to John Lamb in that his ERA was not as kind to him as his peripherals would have you believe. Rea posted a promising 3.93 xFIP, FIP of 3.45, and SIERA of 4.13 which all show potential for a pitcher with an ERA better than 4.26. What is even more promising is that Rea is guaranteed a starting rotation spot out of Spring Training and is not much of an injury risk. Though he does not have the strikeout potential of Lamb, Rea too could be a dependable middle of the rotation starter who will reward fantasy owners who take a flier on him.
9. Robert Stephenson (CIN, AAA)
Stats: 55.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 8.25 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9
ETA: Early August
Robert Stephenson will not be in the starting rotation right out of the gate, but the Reds still have a lot of young pitching that leaves a lot of room for Stephenson to force his way into the rotation. Stephenson has elite strikeout stuff with a fastball ranging in the upper 90s and touching the 100s at times with a complementary wipeout curve that has proven to be one of the best curveballs in the minors. Stephenson is not worth stashing, but if he is called up, teams in need of pitching help are advised to take a flyer on the young right-hander as he has the potential to rack up gaudy strikeout totals.
10. Brian Johnson (BOS, MLB)
Stats: (AAA stats) 96.0 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 8.44 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9
ETA: Mid-June
Brian Johnson could potentially have competed for a rotation spot in Spring Training, but offseason moves pushed him far enough away from the rotation that it no longer looks likely that he will be starting for the Red Sox this season. The acquisition of David Price put Johnson in a position where it no longer appears that he will find a starting rotation spot to open the year. Struggles by Joe Kelly though (not an entirely unlikely possibility) could see Johnson reenter the rotation competition. If Johnson impresses early in the minors, he could pass Roenis Elias, Steven Wright, and Henry Owens and become the favorite to take over a spot by midseason. Johnson has a lot of potential to produce if given the chance, but right now he needs to be given more of a guarantee than he currently has for fantasy owners to consider stashing him.
11. Jose De Leon (LAD, AA)
Stats: 76.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 12.33 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, 12.9 HR/9
ETA: Late August
Probably one of the biggest high risk/high reward players on this list, Jose De Leon has all the potential to become a front of the line starting pitcher, but there is currently no clear path to playing time. The Dodgers have a lot of pitching depth and he would have to battle with fellow pitching prospect Julio Urias in order to receive a promotion in the event of an injury. But Urias is currently 19-years-old and is considered to be one of the best left-handed pitching prospects to come along since Clayton Kershaw and De Leon is already 23-years-old with a high ceiling, but not nearly as high as Urias’. If it comes down to it, expect De Leon to get the nod before Urias. De Leon would immediately become a must own in fantasy leagues, but the high risk that he won’t see playing time until September makes him not worth stashing for 2016 fantasy owners.
12. Jorge Lopez (MIL, MLB)
Stats: (from AA) 143.1 IP, 2.26 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 8.60 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9
ETA: Early August
After four disappointing seasons, Jorge Lopez finally put everything together in 2015 and showed the Brewers why he should be considered one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Lopez struggled with command early in his career and was unable to turn his quality stuff into strikeouts, but last season he maintained a solid 3.27 BB/9 and brought his strikeout rate up from 7.78 K/9 the year before to 8.60 K/9. The Brewers’ rotation looks to be rounded out for now, but don’t be surprised to see some of those names come up in trade discussion around the deadline and one or two rotation spots open up. I would guess at this point that the more Major League ready Zach Davies would be the first to be promoted, but Lopez has a much higher upside and do would more for fantasy owners in fewer innings than Davies would for fantasy owners in more innings.
13. Aaron Blair (ATL, AAA)
Stats: 77.0 IP, 3.16 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 6.55 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9
ETA: Early/Mid-April
When the Atlanta Braves acquired Aaron Blair from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Shelby Miller trade, it really opened up the door for Blair to see some potential starting time in 2016. The Braves starting rotation is probably one of the worst in baseball and there really are no arms outside of Julio Teheran that could prevent a potentially Major League ready Blair out of the rotation. Because he lacks strikeout stuff, Blair will not be an elite fantasy option for most teams, but he could be counted on as a dependable, innings-eating middle of the rotation type arm. Fantasy owners in need of pitching could do worse than add this reliable arm off the waiver wire when he is promoted to the big league staff.
14. Zach Davies (MIL, MLB)
Stats: 34.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 6.35 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9
ETA: Early August
As discussed earlier with Jorge Lopez, Zach Davies would likely be the first Brewers pitching prospect to be promoted, but expect him to only provide moderate fantasy value. Davies could be counted on to produce at a level comparable to backend of the rotation guy, but he won’t strike many out. For fantasy owners in need of a low risk/low reward innings eater at midseason, Davies is your guy, but you should check to see if other options like Jorge Lopez are available before targeting Davies.
15. Josh Hader (MIL, AA)
Stats: 38.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 11.64 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9
ETA: Early August/September
Josh Hader will have to battle with Jorge Lopez to be the high upside arm promoted in the event of two starting pitcher trades at the deadline this season, and Hader could theoretically win the job. Though he has not seen any time in the majors (whereas Lopez made two starts there last year), Hader has immense upside and flashes top of the rotation starter potential. If Hader puts together a better year than Lopez, he could be the guy promoted instead. But if Hader and Lopez are close in their production, expect Lopez to get the edge and Hader to not see any time until September.
16. AJ Cole (WAS, MLB)
Stats: 105.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 6.47 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9
ETA: Early August
AJ Cole’s one advantage over Lucas Giolito was that, for a time, he appeared to be higher in the depth chart than the highly touted prospect. That no longer appears to be the case and Cole now appears to be a spot start option only. If either Tanner Roark or Joss Ross show even moderate struggles this season, it will be Giolito’s name called to fill the gap and not Cole. Cole showed last season when he posted a 2.92 FIP (in a very small sample size of 9.1 innings) that he has a lot of upside and could be a solid pitcher in the majors, but he will have to get a chance at more playing time first and that appears to be a far way off at the moment.
17. Archie Bradley (ARI, MLB)
Stats: 29.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 9.82 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 1.53 HR/9
ETA: Mid-June
Archie Bradley would be higher up this list if it looked like he would be given an immediate rotation spot out of the gate, but what entered the offseason as a weak rotation now looks to be quite strong. With the newly acquired Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller joining Patrick Corbin, Rubby de la Rosa, Robbie Ray, and Chase Anderson, the Diamondbacks rotation looks more than filled out. He still has potential to produce if he is called up, but right now there is too much of a risk that it will take a while for him to be promoted that he is not stash worthy.
18. Jameson Taillon (PIT, NA)
Stats: NA
ETA: Mid-June
Jameson Taillon has not registered an inning at any Minor League level since 2013, and yet I still believe that he has a legitimate chance to be promoted this season. The Pirates are going to be in a heated battle over the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals and they may decide by midseason that they would rather have all of their best arms in the rotation. Right now their rotation is Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, and Ryan Vogelsong. Outside of the front two, that does not sound like the kind of rotation that can readily compete with the bats of the Cubs. But add Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon to the rotation, and you’ve got a rotation that could compete with anybody in the playoffs. If Taillon does get the call, fantasy owners would be wise to add him immediately as he has front of the rotation upside.
19. Cody Reed (CIN, AA)
Stats: 49.2 IP, 2.17 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 10.87 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 0.18 HR/9
ETA: Mid-July
When the Reds dealt Johnny Cueto, everyone knew of Brandon Finnegan (widely regarded as the best prospect of the bunch) and John Lamb (formerly one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in baseball before surgeries derailed his promising career), but few knew of Cody Reed. Reed has since made sure that everyone knows exactly who he is. Reed was in the midst of a promising season at Double-A before being traded to Cincinnati and putting together a masterful season. Now considered the seventh best left-handed pitcher by MLB.com, Reed could have an impact as early as this season. With the Reds entering this season with a young rotation, anything could happen along the way and certainly many of the players will have innings limits that will cut their season short. Reed is a potential front of the rotation arm who would immediately be worth owning as soon as he is promoted.
20. Alex Reyes (STL, AA)
Stats: 34.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 13.50 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 0.26 HR/9
ETA: Mid-August
The 50 game suspension for Alex Reyes really hurt his fantasy value for this season and it probably pushes his possible promotion date back a bit. But why do I think Reyes still has value for this season? Because I think late in the year, the Cardinals will be a position where they absolutely require a spark and Reyes will be the guy to provide that spark. Reyes has the potential to be an elite starting pitcher in the majors. My guess is that he is promoted in August and used as a relief pitcher until September when they use him in the rotation to try to give youngsters like Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez some rest before the postseason. Reyes would have some value even if he is only making spot starts for the Cardinals and fantasy owners in the postseason stretch would be encouraged to add Reyes for some elite strikeout production if they are in need of pitching help.
