Week 7 has arrived, and with that comes another week of prop betting. We are reaching a point in the season where sportsbooks are beginning to adjust to early-season trends.
Not to worry, though, there is still plenty of value available out there. We just have to make our own adjustments and ensure we’re looking in the right spots for value.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Let’s dive into some of my favorite player props for Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Week 7 Passing Prop Bets
Sam Darnold UNDER 231.5 Passing Yards (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .56 Units to Win .5 Units
Darnold has been fantastic in his first season with the Seattle Seahawks. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes against three interceptions and seems to be building upon last year’s career season with the Minnesota Vikings.
While that’s been great to see, this is a matchup where Darnold and the Seahawks' passing game could struggle. Houston ranks third in FTN Fantasy’s defensive passing DVOA and allows the fifth-fewest passing yards per game.
With this game having the third-lowest projected total on the Week 7 slate, this could be a low-scoring grind where we see Seattle rely on its running game and stout defense to pick up a win. That could mean Darnold and the offense struggle to move the ball through the air.
Baker Mayfield OVER 33.5Passing Attempts (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .58 Units to Win .5 Units
Mayfield’s incredible year continues, and the MVP narrative surrounding his 2025 season continues to gain steam. He is now listed as high as +300 to win the MVP award at some sportsbooks.
Baker Mayfield to Kameron Johnson for 6!
SFvsTB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/wekh9o5I5q
— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2025
We’ll have to see if that comes to fruition. For this week, though, Mayfield is set for another potentially huge game. He faces a Detroit Lions secondary that was just torched by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for 257 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Detroit’s secondary currently ranks sixth in PFF’s pass coverage grade, but that unit is dealing with several injuries and is trending in the wrong direction. Detroit’s run defense has been stout, and the team ranks fifth in defensive rushing DVOA and allows just 95.5 rushing yards per game.
We could see the Tampa Bay ground game struggle in this contest. As a result, the team will likely rely on Mayfield and its passing attack to pick up a victory in this game. This could be another spot where Mayfield throws the ball upwards of 40 times, and I believe he’ll easily surpass the above total.
Week 7 Rushing Prop Bets
Quinshon Judkins OVER 18.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Judkins is coming off a down game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the exciting rookie is lined up for a massive game in Week 7.
The Dolphins' run defense has been atrocious all year and is a major liability for Miami in this game. The Dolphins rank 25th in PFF’s rushing defense grade and allow a league-high 168.5 rushing yards per game.
Cleveland will have a great shot to pick up a victory this weekend. Their defense is capable of completely neutralizing a Dolphins offense that is dealing with another distraction after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa aired out some dirty laundry during last week’s post-game press conference.
It’s unlikely Miami will blow out the Browns, and Cleveland should remain very competitive in this game. The Browns could even be playing with a lead for the majority of this contest. Both scenarios are great news for Judkins' outlook, and I think he has a great shot to surpass triple digits this week.
I prefer this line to Judkins' rushing yards prop, which has been bet all the way up to 96.5 at some books, because that number has become too inflated. This is a great matchup, though, and I think Judkins could break off multiple runs of 20+ yards. That makes his longest rush prop the most efficient way to play Judkins in this spot.
Cam Skattebo UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Skattebo is fresh off a three-touchdown effort in last week’s upset victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. However, it’s worth pointing out that the Eagles were missing star defensive tackle Jalen Carter in that game. His abscence made things much easier for Skattebo and a Giants' offensive line that ranks 19th in PFF’s run blocking grade.
This week, things should be tougher, as the Broncos rank eighth in defensive rushing DVOA and allow the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game.
This feels like a comeback down-to-earth spot for Jaxson Dart and the entire Giants offense. I expect the team’s rookie quarterback to struggle in this game, and believe they could fall behind by double digits and struggle to run the ball in the process. It’s for these reasons that I’ll be fading Skattebo in this game.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .57 Units to Win .5 Units
Croskey-Merritt was disappointing in last week’s matchup against the Chicago Bears. He only ran for 61 rushing yards on 17 carries and averaged just 3.6 yards per carry.
He could be set for a better performance this weekend as Dallas ranks 29th in defensive rushing DVOA and allows 142.2 rushing yards per game, which is the fourth-most in the NFL.
Expect a better performance this weekend as Washington looks to take advantage of a soft Dallas run defense.
J.K. Dobbins OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Dobbins has been very good this year and is currently seventh in the NFL in rushing yards. He has also averaged a strong 4.9 yards per carry. Some of his advanced metrics are also good.
Among 41 backs with 35+ attempts, Dobbins ranks:
- Eighth in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected
- 10th in PFF’s breakaway run percentage
- 16th in PFF rushing grade
Dobbins now gets to face a New York Giants team that ranks 31st in defensive rushing DVOA, 22nd in PFF’s rushing defense grade, and allows over 128 rushing yards per game.
This game is a potential letdown spot for the Giants following a huge upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles in a spotlight game. The Broncos are listed as 7-point favorites this weekend, so odds are good they’ll be playing from ahead for the majority of this game.
That would mean plenty of volume for Dobbins, and I like his chances to eclipse this total against a bad Giants run defense.
Week 7 Receiving Prop Bets
Davante Adams OVER 6.5 Receptions (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15 Units
Adams only has two games with more than 80 receiving yards this season and has broken the century mark just one time. However, that could change this weekend. With the Rams' WR1 Puka Nacua set to miss tomorrow’s game, Adams is in line for a huge performance.
The Jaguars do rank fifth in PFF’s pass coverage grade, but they have still allowed wide receivers to eat this season. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to wide receivers so far this year.
Adams is in line for a massive target share in this game, and I like his chances of eclipsing his receptions total. I also don’t mind plays on his receiving yardage and anytime touchdown props. Don’t be shocked if Adams pops for his best game of the season.
Tetairoa McMillan UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-130) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .65 Units to Win .5 Units
McMillan scored his first two career touchdowns against the Cowboys last week.
Tet McMillan's first career TD!
DALvsCAR on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/NfZMzn8i5f
— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2025
While that was great for his fantasy football managers, he was only targeted five times in that game and only had three receptions for 29 receiving yards. Those touchdowns made his day look a lot better than it actually was.
Now, McMillan draws a tough matchup against the New York Jets and star cornerback Sauce Gardner. He is one of the best cover corners in the NFL and could shut down McMillan in this game. The Panthers are also likely to continue relying on their ground attack to pick up their third straight win.
Quite a few things are working in our favor in this matchup, and I’ll be fading McMillan this weekend as a result. I prefer playing McMillan’s receptions prop as opposed to his yards because he could pop for a few big plays and still eclipse his yardage total while staying under the above 4.5 reception line.
Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05 Units
I said earlier I didn’t mind taking a shot on Adams’ anytime touchdown props, and that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Adams has scored three touchdowns this year, but it could be more as he and Matthew Stafford have missed on a few other opportunities.
Look for Adams to find the endzone in this game, and it might be worth sprinkling a bit on him to score a second touchdown, too.
Kendre Miller Anytime Touchdown (+330) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .5 Unit to Win 1.65 Units
I am not completely convinced the Bears' run defense is suddenly fixed after one good showing against a Washington Commanders team that ranks 27th in PFF’s run blocking grade. New Orleans' best shot to remain competitive in this game so to ride its running back duo of Alvin Kamara and Miller.
At these odds, I like taking a shot on Miller to score in this game as I expect Saints head coach Kellen Moore to attack Chicago’s run defense.
Dillon Gabriel Anytime Touchdown (+700) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .2 Units to Win 1.4 Units
Gabriel has only run for five rushing yards in his two starts. That’s not great, but Miami has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year. I’ll take a stab at Gabriel finding the endzone on a broken play or on a goal-line sneak.
Ja’Tavion Sanders Anytime Touchdown (+500) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .2 Units to Win 1 Unit
It looks like Sanders will suit up this week after missing the last few games due to an ankle injury. That’s good news, as the Jets have allowed the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.
I like the matchup for Sanders, and think he's a sneaky pick to find the endzone this weekend.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
A.J. Brown Most Receiving Yards Sunday Games - Excluding LAR at JAX (+1800) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 1.8 Units
J.K. Dobbins Most Rush Yards Sunday Games - Excluding LAR at JAX (+2500) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2.5 Units
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play calling and thus influence props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 7 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Sam Darnold UNDER 231.5 Passing Yards (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Baker Mayfield OVER 33.5Passing Attempts (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Quinshon Judkins OVER 18.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Cam Skattebo UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- J.K. Dobbins OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Davante Adams OVER 6.5 Receptions (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Tetairoa McMillan UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-130) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Kendre Miller Anytime Touchdown (+330) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Dillon Gabriel Anytime Touchdown (+700) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Ja’Tavion Sanders Anytime Touchdown (+500) DraftKings Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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