ATC Projections: Hitter Surprises and Concerns for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

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2. Concerning Surprises Based on ATC Projections

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Using the ATC projections, we have a few ways to find surprising players based on the projection systems. One way is to look at the projected auction values compared to the average draft position and see which players might be value selections. Value is a tricky word since we're (usually) discussing projected value based on feelings or numbers.

Depending on the roster and league size, drafting and constructing one's roster is more than selecting values versus ADP. Part of that process involves asking ourselves if and how that player fits into our draft plan and team construct. That said, even though these players might be values or fades based on the ATC projections, it doesn't mean they may not fit into one's roster construction.

After scouring the ATC projections, we found seven hitters to examine into categories of positive and concerning surprises. We'll look at ATC projection surprises and concerns among hitters inside the top 200 picks in ADP. What do their skills indicate? Should we target or fade these players or not?

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Positive Surprises Based on ATC Projections

William Contreras, C, MIL

NFBC ADP: 69 (Since Feb. 16)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 37

Brewers catcher William Contreras is one player that pops since he looks like a value selection at his ADP, mainly in two-catcher leagues. So why would we highlight a catcher? Contreras gave us the volume with zero days on the injured list over the past three seasons. Since 2014, 20 catchers totaled 500 plate appearances over the past three (2021-2023), and Contreras is one of them. There's an advantage in rotisserie leagues having a catcher that compiles plate appearances and counting stats.

From an offensive standpoint, Contreras checks several boxes. He uses a patient approach (27.9 percent chase rate), hits the ball hard (6.4 percent barrels per plate appearance), and flashes average speed with a high stolen base conversion rate of 88 percent in his career. Prioritize Contreras, mainly in two catcher leagues, because the ATC projections and underlying metrics point toward him repeating his earned value of $15 in 2024.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, PHI

NFBC ADP: 76 (Since Feb. 16)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 59

Though Kyle Schwarber is more known for his power and on-base skills, ATC projections indicate we should target him in drafts based on his value compared to ADP. We double-checked the ATC projections sorted for batting average, not on-base percentage, and Schwarber stood out. Over the past two seasons, Schwarber is the only hitter with two seasons of 45 or more home runs and 600 plate appearances.

Yes, he hit .214 in 2022 and under .200 in 2023. However, Schwarber destroys the ball so much that the expected stats hint at a batting average near .230 to .240. We know Schwarber has elite power skills, evidenced by his BaseballHQ 148 expected power index (xPX) ranked 59th, 103.4 mph EV50 ranked 22nd, and 96.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (EV on FB/LD) ranked 20th.

EV50 is a new metric on Baseball Savant showing the average exit velocity of the hardest 50 percent of a player's batted ball events. We can find a similar number when we combine solid contact and barrels into exit velocity.

Besides the power, Schwarber batting leadoff while contributing 180 to 200 runs plus RBI makes him a sneaky outfield target near or ahead of his ADP, even in batting average formats. For context, if the batting average shifts toward 2022 or his xBA (.230 to .240), his earned value goes from $13-15 to $22-$25.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, PIT

NFBC ADP: 85 (Since Feb. 16)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 65

We have a relatively stable and consistent profile from Bryan Reynolds, so maybe that's one of the reasons he remains undervalued. Over the past two seasons, Reynolds earned $15 with a bump in runs plus RBI and stolen bases in 2023. His skills remain consistent with an 85.8 percent zone contact rate, 7.7 percent barrels per plate appearance (No. 54), and 94.1 mph average on FB/LD (No. 97) among 258 qualified hitters.

The zone contact rate sits a couple of points below his league average, while his barrel rate jumped to a career-high 1.5 points above his career average. Regarding the stolen bases, Reynolds typically only contributed a handful in the previous two seasons. However, his stolen base chances increased from seven (2022) to nine percent (2023). Reynolds also improved his stolen base conversion rate to 92 percent (career high) after 71 percent (2021) and 72 percent (2022).

He has a balanced profile backed by skills to contribute in four categories. Based on the ATC projections, Reynolds should go a round or two earlier, so continue scooping up the value at his ADP.

Christopher Morel, OF, CHC

NFBC ADP: 182 (Since Feb. 16)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 144

Christopher Morel possesses the juicy power and speed skills we look for in fantasy baseball. Morel uses a pull-heavy (55 percent), fly ball (40.9 percent) approach, paired with the quality exit velocity metrics. That's evident via his 9.6 percent barrels per plate appearance (No. 14) and the 13th-best average EV on FB/LD at 97.1 mph.

Though Morel might not be able to sustain his high HR/F, his contact quality metrics suggest some regression but higher home run rates. Given Morel's power metrics, he should have a 17-20 percent HR/F, close to his 2023 numbers (24 percent). The HR/F and overall counting stats should even out with more volume via plate appearances.

The defensive metrics don't point toward Morel being a good defender, but he has the athleticism and speed to steal bases. As a rookie in 2022, Morel's stolen base opportunities ran high at 19 percent, with poor conversion rates at 58 percent. In 2023, the stolen base chances dipped to nine percent with a respectable 75 percent conversion rate. Besides the speed, the concerns surround Morel's hit tool and his ability to make contact.

He doesn't chase much (32.4 percent chase rate), though he swings a ton in the zone (74.2 percent) while making below-average zone contact (77.4 percent). That indicates Morel becomes aggressive in the zone with some worries about making enough zone contact.

Thankfully, Morel destroys the ball enough to make up for the contact rate issues, which is also evident in his xBA (.243) being similar to his actual (.239) in his career. There's a potential outcome of 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases with a .240 batting average for Morel, which makes him a valuable outfielder target around pick 175.

Concerning Surprises Based on ATC Projections

Elly De La Cruz, 3B/SS, CIN

NFBC ADP: 25 (Since Feb. 16)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 74

If you talk about Elly De La Cruz on social media, it might gather some traction. Many think De La Cruz is a player to fade based on his ADP. When a player possesses juicy tools like him, a small part of the market bumps him to avoid missing out. That's especially true when we project a player with only 427 plate appearances. De La Cruz makes contact in the zone 84 percent of the time, one point below the league average. Meanwhile, De La Cruz's 72.8 overall contact rate, over three points below the league norm, raises the concern.

Like many young hitters, the ground balls seem like an issue, though he posted a high HR/F at 24 percent. We've witnessed the raw power, yet his middling barrels per plate appearance indicates some launch angle inconsistencies. That's especially true when considering De La Cruz's 55th-ranked EV on FB/LD at 95.2 mph and 36th-ranked EV50 at 102.8 mph. Only one other hitter had a lower launch angle than De La Cruz among the top-50 hitters in EV50, and that's Christian Yelich at 3.5 degrees, meaning tons of grounders, as we knew.

De La Cruz's 47 percent stolen base changes and 81 percent conversion should hold steady in 2024. Some might question whether he earns enough chances to steal with the shaky plate discipline. However, he has the power and skills to make up for the contact issues, and there's a chance it will come together more consistently. That's evident in De La Cruz's .246 xBA compared to his actual BA of .235, with potentially a wider gap in the xBA over time.

Interestingly, ATC projections have his InterSD at 2.88, indicating the projections align more than one would expect. At best, some of the projections put him as the 60th player overall, over 30 picks beyond his recent ADP of around 25. The tools exist for De La Cruz, but the projections hint at taking these types of risks later, even if it doesn't come with a massive upside.

Ha-Seong Kim, 2B/3B/SS, SD

NFBC ADP: 81 (Since Feb. 16)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 179

It's hard to quantify the positional flexibility Ha-Seong Kim provided with his triple and quadruple eligibility in the past. However, the ATC projections suggest Kim might be a player to avoid at his ADP. After 11 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 2022, he finished with 17 homers and 38 stolen bases in 2023. That's a profile similar to players that go higher in ADP, but let's look at the reasons for optimism and concern.

Kim uses an uber-patient approach with a 23 percent chase rate, eight points below the league average. With Kim's low chase rate, he boasts a zone contact rate of 88.2 percent, around three points above the league norm. He attempts to tap into the pull-side power, with his 45 percent pull rate, with a moderate 38.8 percent fly ball rate. Unfortunately, the barrels per plate appearance of 2.9 percent might scare us as it ranked 231st out of 258 qualified hitters.

The rolling graph below shows Kim's pull and hard-hit rates from FanGraphs. We noticed a trend of harder contact when Kim pulled the ball.

We've learned that hitters who pull the ball can tend to sustain their power, even though the overall metrics don't look positive. Unsurprisingly, Kim's pulled fly balls and line drives averaged a 93.3 mph exit velocity with 12.7 percent barrels per plate appearance. Meanwhile, Kim's average exit velocity on straightaway or opposite field fly balls and line drives sat at 89 mph with 6.1 percent barrels per plate appearance. It's not a flawless metric to look at Kim's power potential, but it's a route to dive deeper.

Kim is a solid defender with the athleticism to steal bases, with a career-best stolen base opportunity rate at 26 percent while converting 80 percent of his chances. When we bake in regression in home runs and stolen bases, Kim is an overvalued player. However, don't sleep on Kim if he falls past ADP because there's a chance he takes a small step forward in the power skills with his speed and high stolen base chances, giving him another season with 30+ steals.

Esteury Ruiz, OF, OAK

NFBC ADP: 121 (Since Feb. 16)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 174

When a player steals 67 bases with a serviceable .254 batting average, the market bumps up a player like Esteury Ruiz in rotisserie formats. However, the ATC projections suggest avoiding Ruiz at his ADP. Ruiz has league-average contact rates, with an 87.6 percent zone contact rate. When he hits the ball, it typically turns into ground balls 46 percent of the time while having the eighth-worst barrels per plate appearance at 1.8 percent near Whit Merrifield and Nico Hoerner. Ruiz also ranked last among 258 qualified hitters with an 86.8 mph EV50.

Ruiz's stolen base opportunity rate required a double take at 76 percent while converting 83 percent of those opportunities. That makes sense since Ruiz stole 67 and attempted 80 times. The projections suggest a similar amount of playing time, with a slight dip in stolen base totals since Ruiz's chances seem like outlier levels.

Since 2010, Ruiz had the fourth-most stolen base attempts, tying him with Jonathan Villar (2016). Besides Villar, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr. finished with double-digit home runs among the 17 players with at least 60 attempts since 2010. As the list above shows, the names showing up multiple times include Dee Strange-Gordon and Billy Hamilton. One can build a roster with Ruiz. However, his power skills and weakly projected counting stats make it a risky profile to trust for stolen bases.

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