One of my favorite things to do at the end of the fantasy season is to look back at all the things I said in August and September. I write a little draft recap for a couple of my leagues and do weekly power rankings. It's fun to see the differences between what I thought then, what I think now, and what actually happened.

We're exactly halfway through the fantasy season and, as is the case every year, things did not exactly go as planned. Somehow, I managed to pick from the middle in every one of my snake redraft leagues. The sixth spot was where I lived. Let's take a trip down memory lane and look at who I took then and who I would have taken had I known how the first eight weeks of the season would play out.

I am taking into account ADP and being realistic in terms of the players that typically went around where I picked. As an example, I am not going to say I should have taken Deshaun Watson in the fourth round. For the purposes of this exercise, I am using half-PPR scoring rules.

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The Power to Turn Back Time...

1.06

Original Pick: LeSean McCoy
Redo Pick: LeSean McCoy

Hey! I got this one correct! Through seven weeks, Shady is the RB7 and justifying the first-round pick. While he is behind Melvin Gordon, who also was a common pick in the mid to late first round, McCoy has one of the softest second-half schedules at the RB position. McCoy also possesses a higher weekly floor and plays with a mobile QB that opens up running lanes. Both RBs were better picks than any of the WRs in consideration at that spot (Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans).

2.07

Original Pick: Doug Baldwin
Redo Pick: Todd Gurley

I was actually on the Todd Gurley rebound this year and he was my top RB target in the second round...that is...if I didn't get Brandin Cooks or Doug Baldwin. With Cooks gone, I went Baldwin under the belief he had a higher weekly floor. Baldwin hasn't even been startable in five out of seven games. His other two games he was an elite WR1, but when he's not, he's not even a WR3. He's become a true boom or bust option. Meanwhile, Gurley is the number one scoring fantasy player (non QB) with an incredibly high weekly touch floor that has proven to be matchup proof.

3.06

Original Pick: Tom Brady
Redo Pick: DeAndre Hopkins

I'll admit, I was all out on Hopkins this year. I was all out on the third round in general. I just didn't like anyone in the third round. My draft philosophy has always been this: when I look at the board and my thought is "ehh...I dunno," just take a QB. So that's what I did. I took Tom Brady because he is supposed to be an elite QB1. It turns out he's just normal QB1. He has finished as the overall QB1 twice this season. He has been a low end QB1 or a QB2 in every other week. He no longer has those consistent blow up games. I'm sure there will be another one this season, but he used to have a bunch each year. 30 fantasy points was the norm. Now Brady hovers around 15-18 for the most part.

Meanwhile, Nuk is the number one scoring fantasy WR. I saw the Tom Savage benching coming. I thought that would be terrible because I did not believe Watson possessed NFL caliber arm strength nor would he be able to deal with NFL defenses. He still can't read a defense and his arm is not strong, but neither of those things have mattered due to Bill O'Brien implementing a simple spread offense that caters to Watson's playmaking ability. Watson is essentially a one read QB and that read is almost always Hopkins. The target count is ridiculous at 10.9 per game, trailing only Jarvis Landry and Antonio Brown. Hopkins is back to being that first-round talent and was available in the middle of the third and Watson has proven to be matchup proof, making the remaining schedule unconcerning.

4.07

Original Pick: Tyreek Hill
Redo Pick: Tyreek Hill

Notwithstanding Hill's low weekly floor, after eight weeks, he has justified the draft position. However, this pick is more about what was going on around Hill. Some of the players selected within a few spots of Hill were Ty Montgomery, Martavis Bryant, Jordan Reed, Marshawn Lynch, Alshon Jeffery, Greg Olsen, and Matt Ryan. Out of all of those players, Jeffery is the only one that has any fantasy value. Montgomery, Bryant, Lynch, Reed, and Ryan are are all droppable. Jeffery is merely a flex play having had just two quality games all season. And Olsen is hurt. Hill has the ability to score a lot of points really quickly and has a very easy schedule post bye.

5.06

Original Pick: Joe Mixon
Redo Pick: Russell Wilson

In this midseason redraft, I passed on Tom Brady round three, allowing me to take a QB at a later spot. This is the correct spot while operating under the assumption that I would not have seen Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, or Alex Smith coming. I could have saved the QB spot for Dak Prescott, but realistically, Wilson would be the guy. I was huge on Wilson in 2016. I had him ranked as my number one overall QB. I may end up being a year early on that. Wilson is about to be fully unleashed as Seattle is completely incapable of running the ball. They have no choice but to let Wilson win games for them. He's the overall QB2 through eight weeks, is past his bye, and only has week 14 at Jacksonville that is scary left on the schedule. Joe Mixon has flashed talent, but after failing to blow up against the Colts' laughably bad defense in week 8, it's apparent that the ascension is not going to occur until 2018. Mixon is going to be a strong value next season, but it was too soon in 2017 running behind the second worst offensive line in the league in a split backfield.

6.07

Original Pick: Theo Riddick
Redo Pick: Zach Ertz

Theo Riddick was a complete waste of a pick. He is no longer on my roster and hasn't been for weeks. Zach Ertz has been the most consistent player in all of fantasy through the first half of the season. He's the overall TE2 and has double digit fantasy points in every game, scoring between 10.6 and 17.4 every week. That's consistency. He does not have a single imposing matchup remaining on the schedule, not that it matters for Ertz anyway.

7.06

Original Pick: Tyrell Williams
Redo Pick: Adam Thielen

Another one of my banner guys that failed me - Tyrell Williams. He's just an afterthought in an offense that features Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon. Philip Rivers takes the snap and he looks at Allen. If Allen isn't open, he checks it down to Gordon. That's the offense. Williams does not matter. He had one big week, which was really just one big 75 yard touchdown catch. Other than that, he hasn't even been a WR4. Adam Thielen has been a WR2 and is the only WR with at least five catches in every game. He is on pace for 150 targets and does not have a single tough defense remaining on the schedule.

8.07

Original Pick: Corey Coleman
Redo Pick: Duke Johnson

I had the right team, which somehow was the Browns, but not the right player. Corey Coleman was probably going to work out, but he broke his hand. This is truly a hindsight pick. Duke Johnson has been an RB2 and would have provided nice depth for my team. He's scored double digit fantasy points in half his games. He works well with Deshone Kizer because Kizer has no business playing QB in the NFL and is incapable of doing anything other than dumping it off or scrambling for his life. Kizer has tried to get himself benched twice, but it hasn't stuck. Johnson's value would take a hit without Kizer there to check it down constantly, but it does not appear the Browns are ready to give up on him just yet. Johnson works as a Flex option rest of season.

9.06

Original Pick: Jamaal Charles
Redo Pick: Alvin Kamara

In taking a shot on a high-upside backup, the move was to take the rookie playing for the Saints, not the 30-year-old with no knees playing for the Broncos. I was championing the belief that Adrian Peterson was done ever since Week 1 of 2016. However, I lacked conviction when it came to make a pick based on that belief. I never considered drafting AP, but I also did not consider Alvin Kamara enough. Kamara has posted double-digit fantasy points in five straight games and is a rock solid RB2 going forward. Charles is nothing more than a handcuff on a struggling offense.

10.07

Original Pick: Shane Vereen
Redo Pick: Chris Thompson

I was a year early on Russell Wilson. I was also a year early on jumping off the Chris Thompson bandwagon. I've drafted this guy each of the past two years because I refused to believe that any of the other Redskins backs were talented. I was right. But after the team refused to use him properly, I gave up. Bad judgment. CT has become the primary back and sees numerous plays drawn up specifically for him. He's been a low end RB1 when all he would've needed to be was an RB3 to return great value. Thompson has double digit fantasy points in all but one game so far and although he still has Seattle next week and Denver in week 16, everything in between is very nice. We can worry about week 16 if and when we get there. Shane Vereen has been a complete zero along with every other Giants RB.

Rounds 11 and beyond

Beyond Round 10, we're just looking at late round fliers, most of which failed. I did draft Evan Engram in the 13th round and that is paying huge dividends, but for the most part, the redo pick would just be me inserting some waiver pickup that no one saw coming and no one would have realistically drafted. Jerick McKinnon and Aaron Jones weren't exactly flying off the board even in the latter rounds of standard sized drafts. Nevertheless the first 10 rounds tell us a lot. It's fascinating to see how differently things work out than we anticipate. Let this serve as a reminder to take the guy you want regardless of ADP.

In this very same league, Kareem Hunt went 24th overall. I thought it was a reach. Everyone thought it was a reach. It was actually a value pick for a team that knew it had to take Hunt at the 2-3 turn or not get him as there was no chance he was making it back to them. What looks like a reach at the draft can end up being a screaming value. Do not be a slave to ADP! I'm excited for the rest of the season and to do another reflection after the season to see how much more things change over the next eight weeks.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.