NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/20): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

5 years ago

Jorge Pucks - RotoBaller

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Saturday, March 20th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/20

- New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals (-145) - 6O
- Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Islanders (-140) - 5.5O
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-190) - 5.5O
- Dallas Stars (-180) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
- Vancouver Canucks vs. Montreal Canadiens (-180) - 6U
- Arizona Coyotes (-125) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U
- Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-160) - 6O
- St. Louis Blues (-145) vs. San Jose Sharks - 6O
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers (-135) - 6O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Philadelphia	30	16	22	25	18.75
New York Islanders	2	28	14	15	19.25
Columbus	22	10	8	23	15.75
Carolina	8	23	25	6	15.5
Dallas	7	30	10	25	17.25
Detroit	26	5	3	29	16.5
Calgary	19	14	13	19	17.5
Toronto	11	24	27	10	16.75
Vancouver	21	2	11	10	11.75
Montreal	10	22	21	3	13.25
New York Rangers	9	24	16	18	22.5
Washington	17	20	30	27	17.75
Arizona	18	8	5	31	14.5
Anaheim	27	20	2	30	20.75
St. Louis	24	16	17	15	16.5
San Jose	29	3	12	14	16
Winnipeg	15	7	24	19	14
Edmonton	16	11	27	7	17.5

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Philadelphia	17	10
New York Islanders	16	24
Columbus	25	9
Carolina	1	27
Dallas	12	29
Detroit	30	18
Calgary	15	22
Toronto	3	14
Vancouver	17	19
Montreal	14	13
New York Rangers	26	12
Washington	6	3
Arizona	24	20
Anaheim	29	8
St. Louis	21	15
San Jose	20	25
Winnipeg	9	21
Edmonton	5	17

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $9,200 FD) - McDavid is just having an incredible season and is worth every penny on both sites right now. He has seven points over his last four games played and has three goals and eight assists in just five games against the Jets this season.
Ryan Strome, NYR ($5,600 DK / $5,800 FD) - Strome has really picked it up offensively lately as he is currently riding a four-game point streak and has generated a point in five out of his last six games. Strome has also been successful against Washington this year as he has scored three goals and notched two assists in just three games this season.
Tomas Hertl, SJS ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) - The pricing dropped on Hertl over on DK and it's hard to not consider him in all formats when he is down in the low 4k range. Hertl has three points over his last two games played and has four total assists in five games against the Blues this season.

Other centers to consider: Aho, Draisaitl, Matthews, Pavelski, Schenn, Lindholm, Couture, Kuznetsov, Schmaltz

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($8,800 DK / $8,100 FD) - Ovechkin is locked in so you better continue to ride the hot hand. He has scored a goal in five straight games and is coming off of a two-goal performance against the Rangers on Friday. Between the shot volume and the goal-scoring upside, Ovechkin is an ideal candidate in all formats.
Nino Niederreiter, CAR ($5,400 DK / $5,100 FD) - While Nino Niederreiter isn't the flashiest play on the slate, he has been very efficient over the last several games. He has scored a point in six out of his last seven games played and is currently riding a four-game point streak. He is on the top forward line so he gets you exposure to Sebastian Aho but is also featured on the Canes second power-play unit so he can be used as a one-off play as well.
Jaden Schwartz, STL ($2,500 DK / $5,500 FD) - Schwartz is the free square of the slate over on DK as he is sitting at the minimum price point of $2,500. Schwartz had a very impactful game Friday night as he took four shots on goal and recorded four blocked shots. He saw over 22 minutes of ice time which is very encouraging and is joining his old familiar linemates in Brayden Schenn and Vladimir Tarasenko.

Other wings to consider: Marner, Panarin, RNH, Radulov, Tkachuk, Connor, Kane, Garland, Benn, Laine, Bjorkstrand, Meier, Keller, Puljujarvi Thornton, Jenner, Voracek, Labanc, Dube, Tatar, Pitlick, Wahlstrom, Simmonds, Donato

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Tyson Barrie, EDM ($6,300 DK / $6,200 FD) - Barrie carries one of the highest ceilings of all defensemen on this slate as he will skate on the top defensive pairing for the Oilers while also quarterbacking the top power-play unit as well. Barrie has been an assist machine over his last two games as he has recorded six total assists while averaging four peripheral stats per game.
Seth Jones, CBJ ($4,800 DK / $5,100 FD) - The pricing on Jones is just too good to pass up on either site. Jones is always around the puck which is why his peripheral stats are always so good. He has recorded 30 peripheral stats over the last four games played and is currently riding a two-game point streak as well.
Erik Karlsson, SJS ($4,100 DK / $4,400 FD) - Even though Karlsson has cooled off from a point-scoring perspective, he still deserves some attention for the amount of ice time that he is seeing and is always good for a few shots on goal and blocked shots per game.

Other defensemen to consider: Hamilton, Carlson, Chychrun, Burns, Nurse, Petry, Rielly, Klingberg, Fox, Weber, Faulk, Muzzin, Provorov, Shattenkirk, Pesce, Brodie, Hanifan

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Carey Price, MTL ($8,200 DK / $7,900 FD) - With Montreal and Vancouver playing on a back-to-back, Montreal looks like they could be turning to Carey Price for the Saturday night game and he should be going up against Braden Holtby and not the scorching hot Thatcher Demko. Price is 2-1-1 over his last four starts with one of those wins coming against the Canucks. Price is 9-5-5 on the year with a 2.66 goals allowed average but is 3-0-2 against Vancouver with a 2.14 goals allowed average and a .919 save percentage in five games against them. Price tends to see a good amount of shots as the Canadiens play with a very good pace so we can expect the save opportunities to be there for Price.
Ilya Samsonov, WSH ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) - Ilya Samsonov could be the starter for the Capitals on Saturday night as Washington rolled out Vitek Vanecek against the Rangers Friday night. Samsonov is 6-0-1 on the year with a 2.54 goals allowed average and a .907 save percentage. He has been very dominant this year and has been on point over his last six starts as he is averaging just two goals allowed per game over his last six starts. Samsonov should benefit from having the home-ice advantage and looks to be one of the safer goalie options for all formats on this slate.

Other goalies to consider: Hill, Koskinen, Oettinger

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

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Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

EDM 1
- RNH/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, d-men add on)
  - The top Edmonton line is one of the best 5v5 lines in all of hockey this season. They are carrying a 3.14 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time and are generating 36.51 scoring chances for and 15.03 high-danger chances for per 60. This line has seen over 60 minutes of ice time against the Jets this season and has fared well against them as they're generating 16 high danger chances and 39.43 scoring chances per 60 minutes while also netting four 5v5 goals against them. While this stack is a little pricey due to McDavid, they are certainly stackable on this slate.
MTL 1
- Tatar/ Danault/ Gallagher (Weber, d-men add on)
  - The top Canadiens line has been reunited and they are always one of the best statistical lines to roster. They had a 66.67 corsi rate against Vancouver on Friday night and generated four scoring chances and one high-danger chance in just 12 minutes of ice time. This line has skated 70 minutes together against the Canucks this season and during that time on ice together, they are generating 25.61 scoring chances per 60 and nine high-danger opportunities.
DAL 2
- Robertson/ Hintz/ Gurianov (Heiskanen, d-men add on)
  - Dallas shuffled up their lines a bit and their second line of Robertson, Hintz, and Gurianov really did well against Detroit on Thursday night. This line produced a corsi for number of 85.71 and generated six scoring chances and two high-danger opportunities in just nine minutes of ice time. This line has seen 68 minutes of ice time together on the season and is sporting an expected goal per 60 rate of 3.27 while generating 35.92 scoring chances for and 15.77 high-danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time. This line is somewhat cheap on both sites and would be a great secondary stack if looking to pay up for an expensive stack on this slate.