Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a matchup of two teams that need to right the ship on Sunday Night Football this week as new starter Joe Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts head up to Minnesota to take on Sam Darnold and the Vikings. The big news of the week is Flacco being named the Colts starter moving forward, and let's see how that affects this slate.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Colts vs. Vikings Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on November 3rd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Sam Darnold - QB, $15,000 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 1,610 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 27 rushing attempts, 106 rushing yards, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 36.03%
I'll start this slate off with Sam Darnold. Darnold has seemingly rejuvenated his career in Minnesota and is on pace for a career year in 2024. It's unlikely that he'll face much resistance in this one against a Colts defense that ranks 26th in defensive passing DVOA.
My model projects Darnold to complete 70% of his passes for 257.9 yards and 1.75 touchdowns, and comes out as the highest-projected player on this slate. The only concern here is that Minnesota storms in front early and uses the running game to salt the clock, but we have a hedge for that.
Aaron Jones - RB, $14,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 104 rushing attempts, 501 rushing yards, 25 targets, 22 receptions, 227 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -13.94%
I mention Jones second to Darnold because of the matchup. While Indianapolis struggles against the passing game in terms of DVOA, they sit closer to the middle of the pack in rushing, ranking 13th in the league. However, Jones could see plenty of volume tonight against this Colts defense that allows the most rushing attempts per game in the NFL.
AARON JONES TAKES IT TO THE OUTSIDE AND WALKS IN UNTOUCHED 😱 pic.twitter.com/uFrvQREYfG
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 20, 2024
My model projects Jones to run the ball 14.3 times for 84.25 yards while adding three receptions on 4.58 targets for 22.56 yards. He has the highest projection for scoring a touchdown in this game, projecting 0.7 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
T.J. Hockenson - TE, $6,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: No Stats.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 24.4%
I mentioned earlier that Sam Darnold is coming along in this offense, and now he has a new "toy" in Hockenson. I went back and forth on this pick given that this is Hockenson's first game since Christmas Eve last year, but I ended up rolling with it as he comes into this game with no injury designation.
Hockenson projects to 4.06 receptions on 5.37 targets for 38.37 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. This is a solid matchup for Hockenson to get "eased" back into things against this Colts defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against tight ends, 29th in receptions allowed to tight ends, and 22nd in receiving yards allowed to tight ends.
Jonathan Taylor - RB, $10,600 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 92 rushing attempts, 454 rushing yards, 11 targets, seven receptions, 89 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -24.94%
I'll flip the field and discuss my first Indianapolis Colt of the day in Jonathan Taylor. You can argue this Colts offense will flow better with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco under center, it'll be tough sledding regardless against this solid Vikings defense. Minnesota has struggled recently but still ranks first in DVOA against the run this season.
Despite that, Minnesota has allowed 21.67 rushing attempts (19th), 96.33 rushing yards (18th), and 0.67 rushing touchdowns (15th) per game over the last four weeks. My model projects JT to run the ball 16.82 times for 66.2 yards and add 2.61 receptions on 3.54 targets for 19.47 receiving yards. He has the second-best touchdown projection at 0.64.
Other Flex Options: Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, Joe Flacco, Jordan Addison
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Minnesota Vikings - D/ST, $5,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 19.3 points per game allowed, 24 sacks, 12 interceptions, three fumble recoveries, three defensive touchdowns.
When talking about Jonathan Taylor, I mentioned a reasonable (and some would argue good) chance that Indianapolis's offense will function better with Joe Flacco under center. While they may be true, I am critical of the decision overall. For one, I'm not a fan of benching your second-year QB this early in his career for anything other than injury purposes.
A QB change for the Colts: Indianapolis is benching former first-round pick Anthony Richardson and turning to veteran Joe Flacco, sources tell @FowlerESPN and me. Coaches met this morning and made the seismic organizational decision to change QBs. pic.twitter.com/uqANJwOwr4
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 29, 2024
Secondly, and more importantly in this context, why did the Colts announce this decision to the public so early in the week? The Vikings had nearly the full week to prepare for Flacco, and I imagine Brian Flores will be scheming things up to get the 39-year-old Flacco off his spot and to the ground.
Alec Pierce - WR, $5,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 30 targets, 16 receptions, 394 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. Other WR: -28.8%
I'll wrap things up with Colts receiver Alec Pierce. Pierce may be the biggest beneficiary of the Joe Flacco replacement, as he's caught just over 50% of his targets to this point in the season. Pierce had his best game of the season with Flacco under center, catching all three of his targets for 134 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville back in Week 5.
Tonight, he projects 3.63 receptions on 4.96 targets for 44.85 yards and 0.27 touchdowns in this one. It's not much, but he's a solid option on tonight's slate.
Other Value Options: Adonai Mitchell, Jalen Nailor, Cam Akers, Trey Sermon
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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