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Welcome to our article about starting pitchers to bounce back in 2024 after injury-plagued seasons last year. You can read about hitters to bounce back as well.
Everyone deserves a second chance. We shouldn't always let last year's outcomes dictate this year's decisions, especially when it comes to injuries. Plenty of fantasy managers give up on players they once spent high draft picks on who let them down due to injury in a prior season. This is an easy way to miss out on some potential future discounts.
We throw the term "injury-prone" around a lot in all sports, but in reality, there's no single player who is particularly more likely to become injured than any other. For instance, Christian McCaffrey entered the 2023 fantasy football season with that label attached to his name, and the All-Pro running back proceeded to play every game and lead his position in scoring by 100 points. How's that for injury-prone? The same concept can be applied to fantasy baseball. So, who are some pitchers primed for comebacks after an injury-plagued 2023 season that warrants one more chance? Let's find out! Note: Yahoo Average Draft Positions below are accurate as of March 8.
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Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 139.2
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, Hunter Greene has endured an ill-fated start to his major league career thus far. Whether it be throwing 7 1/3 no-hit innings and watching his team lose 1-0 back on May 15, 2022, or experiencing right hip pain that ended up ruining his second year in the majors, the stars just haven't aligned for the 2022 No. 1 Cincinnati Reds prospect quite yet. That doesn't mean he hasn't flashed signs of brilliance, though.
In between plenty of rough outings, Greene has five career performances of at least six innings and eight strikeouts while giving up one hit or less. The tools are clearly tangible for both real-life and fantasy dominance. Check out some of these numbers when Greene parlayed post-All-Star break 2022 prosperity into pre-All-Star break 2023 success.
Along with the superb 2.98 ERA over these 20 appearances, the big right-hander registered a 1.17 WHIP and 151:38 K:BB in 108 2/3 frames. That's when Greene got hurt and his campaign unraveled, limping to 2023's finish line with a 6.52 ERA (5.56 FIP) and 52:17 K:BB while serving up 10 home runs during his final nine starts.
A post-hype sleeper for 2024, Greene's biggest shortcoming is control. The 24-year-old owns a blistering 30.7% career strikeout rate, but his 9.3% walk rate, 42.1% hard-hit rate, and 32.1% ground ball rate are major causes for concern. Greene's average fastball velocity (98.3 mph in 2023) remains among baseball's best, though.
Amongst qualified starters, Greene yielded Statcast's largest positive discrepancies between BA (.253) and xBA (.216), SLG (.477) and xSLG (.383), and wOBA (.349) and xwOBA (.302). That's not to mention his 4.82 ERA was a full point higher than his 3.82 xERA.
A lot of that potential regression probably has to do with the Great American Ball Park being MLB's most homer-friendly environment, so we simply can't place blind faith into the Statcast expectations. Although he may ultimately be best utilized as a reliever, Greene can be treated as an all-upside pick in the early-double-digit rounds of 2024 drafts with the hope he finally gets his changeup working or, better yet, successfully incorporates his newfound splitter into the mix.
Huge development for Hunter Greene. https://t.co/jS0D9GYFlU
— Bryce Spalding (@bryce_spalding) March 6, 2024
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
ADP: 142.3
One of the offseason's biggest winners, Chris Sale transitions from handling the onus of being the Boston Red Sox's ace to serving back-end starter duties for the Atlanta Braves. After Sale missed all of 2020 and tossed only 151 innings (31 starts) across 2021 to 2023, the move should theoretically help keep the oft-injured 34-year-old left-hander healthier with a lighter workload potentially in store.
Sale underachieved in a big way during 2023, posting a 4.30 ERA (3.80 FIP), 1.13 WHIP, and 129:25 K:BB in 20 showings. Before left shoulder inflammation put him on the shelf for over two months, the veteran southpaw pitched to a poor 4.58 ERA through his initial 11 starts but improved to a 3.92 ERA in his last nine starts upon returning.
Sale's struggles last year arose mainly from how he put the ball in play when not sitting batters down via the K, logging a career-worst 37.3% GB% and 31.2% fly ball rate, which was never going to end well with a poor defense (-20 defensive runs saved in 2023) at the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. That should play well with a better defense at a more neutral setting in Truist Park, however, enforcing reason to buy into Sale's regression materializing in 2024.
Chris Sale sitting 95 and touching 97 this early in encouraging. The pitch data looked solid on all 4 of his offerings.
64% whiff rate
48% CSW
Health is likely the biggest factor. 140 IP from Sale could return nice value on fantasy.
pic.twitter.com/4mClh8HmuF— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) February 27, 2024
We're probably not the first to try and sell you on Sale (see what I did there?), but his draft cost remains on sale (okay, I'll stop now) in the early double-digit rounds. He's still bound to miss some time this season, making him more of a rotisserie league preference than head-to-head priority, as the World Series-hopeful Braves are likely to exercise an abundance of caution for any nick or bruise Sale picks up.
The seven-time All-Star enters the year with a clean bill of health for the first time since 2019, and he should be a great fantasy bet on a per-game basis. Sale remains MLB's all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings with 11.1.
Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees
ADP: 168.5
Let's jump from one former Chicago White Sox ace to another. You probably won't like this one, and truth be told, I wouldn't want to touch Carlos Rodon with a 10-foot pole after his latest Grapefruit League display, either.
Not a great outing for Carlos Rodon.
3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, BB, K, 2 HR
Velocity down considerably across the board. pic.twitter.com/jV9kAqCqSn
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) March 6, 2024
With a late-round price tag, however, he's a very scary fade. In 2021 and 2022, Rodon finished top six in Cy Young voting and notched All-Star honors in consecutive years, leading MLB with a 2.25 FIP and 12.0 SO9 in 2022. Over these two years, Rodon dazzled with a 2.67 ERA (2.42 FIP), 0.99 WHIP, and 422:88 K:BB in 310 2/3 frames.
The New York Yankees' 2023 prized free-agent acquisition got off on the wrong foot due to a strained left forearm and lingering back problems during last year's spring training and never regained his footing, despite the Yankees giving the 31-year-old lefty until July 7 to recover.
After sacrificing eight runs and not recording an out in his finale, Rodon scuffled to a disastrous 6.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 64:28 K:BB in 64 1/3 frames. There isn't much to hang our hats on in terms of a potential rebound, but his average four-seamer velocity of 95.3 mph, 30.5% chase rate, and 1.51 points of difference in actual and xERA (5.34) offer reasons for optimism.
Rodon may ultimately turn out as one of the many athletes who succumbs to the pressure that accompanies the Big Apple spotlight, facetiously blowing kisses to the fans amid one of his many poor starts in 2023. There's also a chance we're dealing with another iteration of Blake Snell here, a boom-or-bust player who is a Cy Young contender one year and a liability another.
Far cheaper than he was in 2023 drafts, a healthy Rodon certainly carries the upside we're seeking later in drafts. His track record suggests the possibility of a Cy Young-caliber campaign still exists here. 2023 just had to be an outlier.
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 212.1
How about another former top Reds prospect? Right down to the frame, mechanics, draft capital, and now injury-prone nature, Nick Lodolo can't help but come off as a Chris Sale clone. It feels like only a matter of time before Lodolo is producing near the level Sale did during the veteran's prime. A 2022 post-All-Star break hero, Lodolo wrapped up the year in electric fashion with a 2.92 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 93:27 K:BB in 77 innings (13 starts).
The lefty's fortunes carried into the start of 2023, attaining a 2.12 ERA and 27:6 K:BB over his first 17 frames before the injury bug bit him badly. Really bad. A stress reaction in his left tibia would ultimately sideline Lodolo after May 6, and he sustained another while nearing a return in August. Still dealing with complications from the setback, Lodolo has yet to appear in spring training but is scheduled to debut on March 10, which should still only make his ADP even more affordable.
After leading the big leagues with 19 hit-by-pitches in just 19 starts during 2022, Lodolo significantly sharpened his command via a 6.0% BB% despite weak 2023 results overall. The swing-and-miss stuff was still there as well, as evidenced by strong chase (32.3%), whiff (30.4%), and K (28.3%) rates.
On top of that, Lodolo featured some of Statcast's biggest differences with a .340 BA and .242 xBA, .605 SLG and .468 xSLG, .426 wOBA and .336 xwOBA, plus a 6.29 ERA and 4.83 xERA. That's a lot of numbers to digest, but it simply tells the tale of how unlucky the 26-year-old southpaw was during his first full season.
Much like Hunter Greene, the bandbox ballpark factor isn't going away. Even so, how could we not like the idea of getting an arm in the 200s of drafts with this level of strikeout upside and potential to stabilize ratios, to boot. I'll gladly grab the injury discount we're getting this spring.
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 228.9
A 2015 first-round pick, Triston McKenzie didn't find his way into the bigs until a standout 2022 campaign saw him compile a 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 190:44 K:BB over 191 1/3 innings. The year 2023 told a much sadder tale, though. Two days before Opening Day, the Cleveland Guardians shut down McKenzie for two weeks after an MRI revealed a strain in his right teres major muscle.
The upstart right-hander didn't debut until early June, dominating the Minnesota Twins in his return with five one-hit frames and 10 punchouts. Following a dreadful second appearance, McKenzie hit the injured list once more, this time with a sprained right elbow. He came back on September 24 but struggled with his control, lending nine free passes in his final six innings.
Triston McKenzie sat 91-93, par for the course with him
But he gets 7 feet of extension and was consistently at 20 inches of iVB
— Prospect Tilt (@Prospect_Tilt) March 6, 2024
McKenzie is looking for a fresh start in 2024, firing two scoreless frames in his Cactus League debut. While the 26-year-old righty doesn't throw very hard and relies more on pitch location as well as his 6-foot-5 frame creating extension to retire batters, his fastball works in tandem alongside his breaking balls. Most of McKenzie's struggles in his short time on the field in 2023 stemmed from being unable to get into a rhythm with his curveball, as that offering was his go-to putaway pitch during his brilliant 2022 year.
If he rounds his bender back into form, McKenzie could reestablish himself as an upper-echelon fantasy starter and be a steal in drafts. It's worth noting he got off to a slow start in 2022, managing a 4.03 ERA in his first 14 performances before notching a far superior 2.19 ERA during his last 17 starts of the campaign. Perhaps he just needs a chance to find a groove, something he didn't get a season ago, as McKenzie's .217 xBA implies some regression is in store.
Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees
ADP: 223.1
Surprise 2022 All-Star Nestor Cortes was always facing an uphill battle to replicate his run from the campaign prior, but we didn't expect him to struggle the way he did. Since he enjoyed such a solid start in 2023 (3.49 ERA through April 25), we can justifiably speculate when his injury started to bother him.
During six appearances from April 30 to May 30, Cortes submitted a 6.68 ERA and 31:14 K:BB before a left rotator cuff strain kept him out for over two months and eventually ended his season following a brief one-start return on August 5.
Nestor Cortes, 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/AzbmvYKLPO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 26, 2024
Especially at his late-round ADP, Cortes deserves a second chance in 2024. The 29-year-old Cuban lefty garnered a 3.66 xERA, which is much more in line with the 1.24 WHIP he turned in alongside an excellent .216 xBA.
With the Yankees losing key swingman Michael King in the Juan Soto deal, the move grants Cortes a longer leash in New York's rotation. Because he doesn't sport great velocity, Cortes leans on his cutter and sweeper to mess with hitters' timing to get his four-seamer working, similarly to Madison Bumgarner before him.
With a decent K% and the upside to stabilize ratios while racking up lots of wins on the contending pinstripes, Cortes is one of my favorite value picks late in drafts this spring.
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