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Welcome to our article about hitters to bounce back in 2024 after injury-plagued seasons last year. You can read about pitchers to bounce back as well.
Everyone deserves a second chance. We shouldn't always let last year's outcomes dictate this year's decisions, especially when it comes to injuries. Plenty of fantasy managers give up on players they once spent high draft picks on who let them down due to injury in a prior season, which is an easy way to miss out on some potential future discounts.
We throw the term "injury prone" around a lot in all sports, but in reality, there's no single player who is particularly more likely to become injured than any other. For instance, Christian McCaffrey entered the 2023 fantasy football season with that label attached to his name, and the All-Pro running back proceeded to play every game and lead his position in scoring by 100 points. How's that for injury-prone? The same concept can be applied to fantasy baseball. So, who are some hitters primed for comebacks after an injury-plagued 2023 season that warrants one more chance? Let's find out! Note: Yahoo Average Draft Positions below are accurate as of Feb. 13.
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Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Yahoo ADP: 52.1
You knew this one was coming, so let's not waste any time getting into it. Since 2021, Mike Trout has missed more games (249) than he's appeared in (237). Ouch. And with Shohei Ohtani spurning the Angels for the crosstown-rival Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason, the move leaves Anaheim's direction as a team in a state of flux and their lineup at its weakest point since Ohtani joined the club back in 2018.
The front office might have been bracing for Ohtani's departure and contemplating a full-blown rebuild, considering there were whispers late in the regular season that the Halos were open to shopping Trout, but those talks have since quieted down with Trout entering the halfway mark of his 12-year megadeal in 2024.
Although Trout's age-31 campaign still yielded a 96th-percentile sprint speed (29.5 mph), the days of the former five-category fantasy sensation getting the green light to run are all but over -- Trout has attempted seven stolen bases in his last 290 games. Sigh. But that doesn't mean he didn't get it done with the bat in 2023, and Trout's "struggles" when healthy were greatly exaggerated.
Sure, his strikeout rate (28.7%) was the worst mark of his decorated career. That's been a recurring theme of late, with Trout not being the same threat as a baserunner in the past few years. And with the Angels' lack of speed ranking them dead last in steals (72) in the AL last season (now subtract Ohtani), Trout's freer-swinging ways are unlikely to go away. Thankfully, we don't have to worry about K's hurting as much outside of points leagues.
On top of the obvious injury risk, Trout's .263/.367/.490 triple-slash line -- his lowest figures since 2011 -- over 362 plate appearances from a year ago leaves the three-time MVP's fantasy ADP discounted to perhaps its most affordable cost ever, baking in the injury concerns a bit too heavily. That sounds like an open invitation to grant the oft-injured perennial All-Star and Silver Slugger one more chance.
Trout played 119 games during 2022, and if he can reach that milestone this season, the 32-year-old superstar would smash his fifth/sixth-round ADP and be one of fantasy's top bet-on-talent gambles in 2024.
Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins
Yahoo ADP: 204.2
I'm not sure any player in baseball played through more pain than Carlos Correa last year. Most of the other members of this list ended up being inactive altogether for the majority of the campaign. Not Correa, who fought through lingering plantar fasciitis in his left foot for four months until he finally hit the injured list in late September to end his regular season following 135 contests.
Let's get the bad out of the way first. Correa slashed .230/.312/.399 -- career lows across the board -- and led the majors with 30 double plays grounded into across his 580 PAs. His balky heel may have played a part there. Oh, and he's only tried to swipe a bag once amid 477 games since 2020 at a position we generally want speed from in fantasy.
After returning in time for the postseason, however, Correa picked up on his playoff heroics from his days in Houston to the tune of a .409/.458/.546 slash line with three doubles and four RBI across 24 PAs. During a healthier 2022, Correa closed the campaign in the top 10 percent for xBA (.276), xwOBA (.363), and xSLG (.484).
Although the 29-year-old two-time All-Star is likely entering the year outside of a premium lineup spot, Correa will still station in the heart of Minnesota's order in 2024 and is a buy-low investment in the final third of fantasy drafts at a position that's hard to find slugging from.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Yahoo ADP: 243.2
We've probably given Byron Buxton one too many chances over the years, but maybe 2024 will finally be a reversal of fortunes. He's missed at least 35% of the season in each year since 2018, reaching the 100-game threshold only once in his career when he played in 140 games back in 2017.
Despite the Twinkies' best efforts to preserve the oft-injured Buxton in bubble wrap by restricting him to designated hitter duties in 2023, the injury bug still got to the center fielder by trade. Held to 85 games courtesy of calf, knee, back, and rib injuries, Buxton slashed an underwhelming .207/.294/.438 across 347 trips to the dish.
Now, Yahoo has taken away Buxton's outfield eligibility. While that's a bummer, he could get it back fairly early in the year, and the speedy slugger nearly paced for a 30-HR, 20-SB campaign with an elite 14.6% barrel rate.
Hitters in the 80th percentile or better in BRL% and sprint speed in 2023.
Matt Chapman
Luke Raley
Byron Buxton
Luis Robert Jr.
Teoscar Hernández
Christopher Morel
Jack Suwinski
Michael A. Taylor
Mike Trout
Jose Siri pic.twitter.com/pllKjB6FeJ— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 8, 2023
Buxton is starting to become more of a three-true-outcomes kind of hitter, which could really hurt his overall appeal in 5x5 settings, but he'll make up for it in the steals department (94th-percentile sprint speed in '23). Sure, reentering the outfield will only escalate the injury risk, but we're getting a player with difference-making power/speed upside in the 200s of drafts at this point. Set to hit third in a formidable Minny lineup, I'm treating Buxton as a type of budget Jazz Chisholm Jr. for fantasy purposes in 2024.
Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies
Yahoo ADP: 252.4
The Rockies inked Kris Bryant for seven years and $182 million in the 2022 offseason to help mitigate the loss of All-Stars Trevor Story that winter and Nolan Arenado in 2021, and time is already running out for them to justify the deal. Between unavailability and inconsistent play, the contract has been an unmitigated disaster and stands out among baseball's worst.
Bryant got off to a great start a year ago, however, slashing .310/.390/.465 with five bombs, five doubles, and 13 RBI covering his first 34 games. An extended 10-for-61 slump with one extra-base hit followed from May 10 to May 30. Next was an IL stint due to a bruised left heel for Bryant, who dealt with plantar fasciitis in the same foot in 2022. Carlos Correa knows what that's like.
A fractured left index finger in late July would further derail Bryant's second season in the Mile High City, and he hit a dreadful .182 with a .611 OPS over his final 110 at-bats to wrap up the campaign. Speaking of mile high, the thin air of Coors Field should only benefit the former NL MVP in his age-32 campaign, something I'm sure we've talked ourselves into before.
Dating back to 2022, Bryant played half of a season's worth of outings for the Rocks up until May 9 before last year's heel bruise and slashed a potent .308/.382/.471 with 10 blasts, 17 doubles, and 27 RBI across 289 ABs. I certainly had to reach for that, but it's an extended sample size of success for Bryant in Colorado that's easily overlooked.
Set to bat cleanup in 2024, Bryant represents a cheap opportunity to get a piece of the Coors Field action near the end of drafts.
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees
Yahoo ADP: 241.4
Anthony Rizzo probably has the most logical and succinct summary of all the players we've covered. In his first 53 games of the year, Rizzo looked well on his way to being a part of the third midsummer classic of his career, slashing .304/.376/.505 with 11 homers, eight doubles, and 32 RBI from March 30 to May 28.
Things took a turn for the worse when Rizzo collided with Fernando Tatis Jr. in that May 28 outing. All seemed well when Rizzo returned to New York's lineup just a few short days later, but he actually ended up playing with an undiagnosed concussion for two months. Yikes.
Over his final 46 appearances before the Yankees shut him down, Rizzo slashed a mere .172/.271/.225 with just one dinger through his last 192 trips to the plate. Even Rizzo himself has said he had trouble seeing the ball due to fogginess amid this tailspin.
The 34-year-old former All-Star is all set to resume his duties as the Bronx Bombers' cleanup hitter in 2024, likely batting right behind two AL MVP candidates in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Rizzo was on pace for nearly 100 RBI in an inferior Yanks lineup last season before his downturn began.
Now, he's a player we can get with one of the last picks in our drafts at a top-heavy position that dries up on top-tier options in a hurry. If we get pre-concussion Rizzo, he'll crush his ADP. Sign me up.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
Yahoo ADP: 242.1
This is probably the ugliest one on the list -- and really just an honorable mention -- but hear me out before clicking off! Before a strained left groin cost him nearly a month of play, Anthony Rendon hit a strong .301 with a .784 OPS, one round-tripper, four doubles, and 30 RBI during 103 ABs to begin 2023. He then went a frigid 4-of-45 upon returning, and a left shin contusion would end his season after the Fourth of July.
Anthony Rendon has produced 3.6 fWAR over 210 games played with the Halos.
A 2.8 fWAR/162 games played isn’t great but it’s better than league average.
So many hate the guy because he’s only been healthy enough to play 38.5% of games & said some things they don’t like.— old school (@updawg77) February 4, 2024
The pop in the 33-year-old's bat could be gone, and Rendon's bloated contract might be a total albatross, but we shouldn't be averse to the idea of taking a flier on the guy who is likely to bat directly behind Mike Trout.
Don't expect Silver Slugger Rendon to make a comeback, and Tony 10-Day might be a more appropriate nickname than Tony Two Bags for the former doubles machine at this point, but he's worthy of a back-end roster spot with a clean bill of health entering 2024.
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