The golfing gods are giggling at us from above. Wringing their wet laundry over the temperate climate of Arizona causing rain delays. And then once we think they are done with that, they decide to turn the AC all the way up to induce frost delays. Hopefully we can get as much golf as possible in over the next 2 days, ideally finishing this tournament and avoiding a Monday finish, the day after the Super Bowl.
The cutline is currently projected at -2 with a probability of 67%. The remaining part of the 100% pie, largely lies with the -3 scores. I am going to do my best to give you some showdown options that have: 1) Finished at -3 or better 2) Finished at -2 3) Finishing R2 at -3 4) Starting R2 -3 or better 5) Starting R2 -2 or worse. I think the most interesting names are those still on the course who sit around level par, as they likely won't be on too many peoples' radars and can easily come in sub 2% ownership with tons of momentum heading into R3.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
We still have guys in R2 who have yet to tee off...
Weather & Strategy
The weather the next two days seems identical so no real weather edge for guys finishing their rounds tomorrow. Also, we don't really know half of the guys who will be going off late in the day and who gets some early tee times this afternoon. What we do know, as mentioned in the intro, there is tons of opportunity, depending on your risk tolerance, to roster a golfer who is still out on the course, floating around the cutline as R3 showdown locks at 1ET.
Golfers finishing their round on the back 9 get the stretch from 13-17 that offers up three of the four easiest holes on the course. If a golfer is sitting around -1 entering this stretch, there's a decent chance he ends up at -2 by the time he walks off 17 green. Keep and eye on the cutline probability as the day goes on over at datagolf.com to make sure you know what you are working with.
Now, taking a risk on a golfer who is flirting with the cut is all up to your risk tolerance and how much you value ownership leverage. How much you value ownership leverage likely depends on the size of the tournament you are playing, with MME's (mass multi entry) likely offering a lot more reward for your risk if you can be the handful of lineups of a couple thousand who has somebody who snuck in late after lock and then carries that momentum into R3. Single entries and smaller contests likely won't reward that kind of bravery or buffoonery (however you want to look at it) as there will still be some low owned options who have guaranteed a R3 birth. I feel like this segment of the article is the most important for R3.
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1. "Finished & Made The Cut" Options
- Justin Thomas ($10,300)
- Sam Burns ($9,500) as a pivot off Scottie and JT who are a shot ahead of him on the leaderboard, likely making them more popular options
- Byeong Hun An ($8,900)
- Beau Hossler ($8,400)
- Thomas Detry ($7,700)
- Billy Horschel ($7,200)
- Tyler Duncan ($6,500)
- Bud Cauley ($6,200)
2. "Finished At -2" Options
- Min Woo Lee ($8,600)
- Adam Scott ($8,500)
- Zach Johnson ($6,300)
3. "On The Course Finishing R2" Options
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500) -3 thru 15
- Jake Knapp ($7,000) -5 thru 13
- Alexander Bjork ($6,700) -3 thru 13
4. "Starting R2 At -3 Or Better" Options
- Sahith Theegala $9,600
- Kevin Yu $7,600
- Davis Thompson $7,300
5. "Starting R2 At -2 Or Worse" Options
- Max Homa $9,800 +2
- Eric Cole $8,800 -2
- Tom Kim $8,300 +2
- Tom Hoge $7,500 -1
- Emiliano Grillo $7,500 -1
- Luke List $7,400 +1
- Luke Donald $6,100 -2
- Nicolo Galletti $6,000 E
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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