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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.
Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.
Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 8 of the fantasy baseball season. For a complete list, check out our premium tool, as explained below.
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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool
Identifying top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a glimpse at one of our advanced tools:
This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!
Contact Rate Risers
Javier Baez (2B, CHC) 87% contact rate last seven days
Baez is finally catching fire after a sluggish start to the season. A talented player without a permanent position, Baez should be taking Ben Zobrist's job by now, but he's only hitting .264 with a .301 OBP. His plate discipline has barely improved, as a 0.19 BB/K indicates. The power has been there; his .232 ISO and seven HR in 125 at-bats are certainly good for a middle infielder. Now, perhaps the average will follow. Baez is hitting .467 in the past week and his contact rate has jumped by 21 points. Be warned that the Cubs are embarking on a west coast trip soon and Baez doesn't have great numbers against the Dodgers or Padres.
David Peralta (OF, ARI) 93% contact rate last seven days
Peralta isn't in the lineup every day, but when he is, he usually makes the most of it. He's currently slashing a career-high .314/.362/.479 with four homers, four steals and 23 runs scored. His ugly numbers against lefties (.192 AVG, two XBH in 26 AB) aren't going to change, but he should stay in the lineup at least four or five times a week and produce at a satisfactory level. Peralta found his way to the waiver wire in some leagues after he missed a couple of days with a glute injury, but he's been on fire ever since. He's available in more than half of Yahoo leagues, so this might be the ideal time to scoop him up.
Max Kepler (OF, MIN) 92% contact rate last seven days
We knew Kepler was a high risk/reward player entering this season. There hasn't been much reward to owning him thus far, but that may be changing. He's jacked three homers and driven in eight runs over the last 10 days, with a hefty 92% contact rate in the last seven. Power might be all you're looking for here, but Kepler has actually improved his walk rate to a very good 11.7% BB% while lowering his strikeout rate to 17.5%. Kepler is also learning to take the ball the other way, which bodes well for sustaining his power. This might be a good time to add him while his stock is somewhat down.
Cameron Maybin (OF, LAA) 90% contact rate last seven days
Maybe last year wasn't a fluke after all. While his season average is just .244, he's absolutely tearing it up this week with a .542 average. He even chipped in his first two homers in the last two days. Last year he enjoyed an absurdly high .383 BABIP, but he still has room to grow over his current .295 BABIP. Average aside, if you own Maybin it shouldn't be because you're expecting a .300 hitter. His 10 steals in 11 attempts are a welcome addition to any fantasy roster - the increased contact is just a bonus.
Contact Rate Fallers
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) 55% contact rate last seven days
55% contact and a .217 average over the previous week is a slump for anyone, but it's a big deal for Bogaerts. The good news is that he's still hitting .320, has raised his wOBA for the third straight year, and is striking out less. The bad news is that he is yet to hit a single home run this season. Maybe he's decided to forego power for contact altogether, as he's hitting fly balls only 22% of the time. Seven stolen bases help offset the power loss a bit, but it would be nice if he would make up his mind what kind of player he wants to be. Regardless, it appears Bogaerts is a near-lock to bat over .300 so don't let this week concern you in the slightest.
Carlos Santana (1B, CLE) 66% contact rate last seven days
Santana is a curious case, as his overall contact rate of 84.8% is higher than ever, while he's also posting the lowest swinging strike rate of his career. Somehow, it's manifested into a .216 average with a .239 BABIP. Even his power peripherals suggest his luck is bound to change, such as a career-worst 7.4% HR/FB rate resulting in just four home runs. Three hits in his last 25 at-bats have pushed his value even lower, so this might be a great time to swing a deal for the veteran slugger.
Yuli Gurriel (1B, HOU) 63% contact rate last seven days
The Cuban import has taken fantasy owners on a bit of a roller-coaster ride this season. Right now, he's in a valley but may be ready to rise up again. Gurriel homered on Tuesday, giving him four round-trippers and 15 RBI on the season. He was hitting .293 before the week started, so too much shouldn't be made of this mini-slump. That said, if your league counts walks or OBP, you should avoid Gurriel outright. He has three walks in 154 plate appearances, good for an abysmal 1.9% BB%. As a corner infielder who hits for average, but minimal power, he is only useful in 14+ team leagues with CI spots.
Carlos Correa (SS, HOU) 66% contact rate last seven days
When you get benched for Marwin Gonzalez, things aren't going your way. It's just a day of rest for the struggling youngster, but Correa continues to frustrate fantasy owners expecting a breakout season. In the last six days (four games), he has one base hit in 13 at-bats. That hit was a solo homer, giving him six on the season, but it's not enough for those who spent a second or third round pick on him. Correa is hitting the ball in the air more, but his 29.8% pull rate is down 10 points from last season, resulting in more fly outs toward the middle of the field. You can't rightfully bench a player like Correa if you own him and you may be hesitant to trade a star player in exchange for him, but don't discount a second-half breakout at a premium position.
