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"Post-hype" has become a fancy buzz term across the fantasy industry over the years. Generally speaking, your model post-hype sleeper is a player who once carried high expectations but failed to deliver. These players tend to be in their second or third year, as they either began their careers as much-ballyhooed prospects and initially underperformed, or they were once rookie revelations that entered the following year with high hopes and fell flat.
Value is the name of the game when it comes to these guys. They've all flashed difference-making fantasy potential at one point or another, whether it be in small or large sample sizes. Look at Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich entering 2023. Both former NL MVPs' ADPs depressed significantly last draft season after going from five-category superstars to lower-end contributors for an extended period of time, but those who took the shot on either of them reaped the benefits.
Each of the hitters we're looking at here are either starting their second or third full season in the major leagues. Now that their hype is back in check, let's see how they can leap toward stardom in 2024. Yahoo ADPs are accurate as of March 24.
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Francisco Alvarez - C, New York Mets
ADP: 157.8
2023 was simply a roller coaster ride of a rookie year for Francisco Alvarez. Baseball’s No. 3 prospect looked overmatched in 2022 when the New York Mets called him up for a pivotal late-season series against the division-rival Atlanta Braves.
It didn’t take long for the Mets to give Alvarez another chance early in 2023, but he continued to look behind the curve during most of the first quarter. Then Alvarez smashed 10 home runs in 25 games from May 6 to June 8, but he went homer-less in his following 49 plate appearances.
Alvarez proceeded to crack nine more homers during 21 outings from July 1 to August 1 and closed the year mostly looking the part of an unseasoned minor leaguer with a .158 batting average and .552 OPS, four HRs, five doubles, and 19 RBI amid his final 127 at-bats of the campaign (44 games).
If there’s one comparison I can draw for such a whirlwind of a season in fantasy football terms, look no further than Gabriel Davis’ most recent campaign.
Sights of spring.
Francisco Alvarez sends one out of here for his first home run of the spring 💥 pic.twitter.com/G2HVDmnRxv
— SNY (@SNYtv) February 25, 2024
There were certainly times in Alvarez’s rookie season where he looked like the second coming of Johnny Bench, and he was good enough defensively behind the plate to feel like his job will be safe from veteran Omar Narvaez amid hitting slumps. 2024 will be a transitional year in Queens as well, which bodes well for the youngster's playing time.
The Mets are hoping to use Alvarez's bat as protection behind Pete Alonso. While he’s not going to help fantasy managers in runs, stolen bases, or average (very few backstops do), he carries arguably the highest slugging potential of anyone at his position as just a fringe top-10 option in 2024 drafts.
The 22-year-old just needs to improve his timing at hitting pitchers other than fastballs, which is something young players tend to get better at as they mature.
MJ Melendez - C/OF, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 286.6
Let’s go from one slugging backstop to another. Well, the Kansas City Royals have essentially converted MJ Melendez to a corner outfielder, but you get the idea. He’s still the heir apparent to Salvador Perez behind the dish, and Melendez flashed plenty of potential upon his 2022 call-up, hitting .268 with an .844 OPS, six jacks, six doubles, and 16 RBI over the first 125 PAs of his career.
The addition of the big-armed Hunter Renfroe will allow Melendez to be KC’s everyday left fielder, and for what it’s worth, his batting splits when he starts in left are actually the best of any defensive position. In 80 career outings patrolling left field, the 2017 second-round pick is slashing .254/.342/.482 with 13 blasts, 20 doubles, 37 RBI, and 38 runs scored.
The 25-year-old bounced around the heart of the order last year, and while Melendez was most effective from the five-hole (.283 BA and .842 OPS when batting fifth), he is slated to hit out of the leadoff spot in 2024.
With catcher eligibility still intact, however, Melendez will score more runs and provide more speed than most others at a position bereft of it. That’s not to mention some top-shelf slugging metrics in his favor from 2023, and despite a rough first three quarters, he came on in a big way down the stretch.
Melendez slashed .287/.376/.529 with 19 extra-base hits and 20 RBI over his final 42 games started. The RBI will be lacking as the No. 1 batter in the Royals order, but if he can get his average around .250, Melendez will bring a unique skill set to the table at a barren position. He is a threat to lead the way in at-bats, something that can be hard to find.
Sal Frelick - OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 317.4
Dubbed "The Hit Collector" by former manager Craig Counsell, Sal Frelick took baseball by storm upon his late-July promotion with a loud .273/.436/.546 slash line, three long balls, 15 RBI, 14 walks, and one stolen base over the first 62 PAs of his career. Although Frelick came crashing down to earth with zero dingers in his final 41 games of the year, he swiped six bags over this period.
Profiling as more of a speedy contact hitter, the 2021 first-rounder is still lined up to hit third in Milwaukee’s order in 2024. Frelick was the top Brewers prospect for 2022, so even though Jackson Chourio is getting all the attention and Garrett Mitchell will be nipping at his heels to ascend the ladder, Frelick will get the first crack at a premium lineup position. Oh, and now he's getting reps at third base in spring training.
Smoooooth at the hot corner @SalFrelick pic.twitter.com/ne2A3lbB9V
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) February 20, 2024
The 23-year-old's impressive defense and versatility should keep him in Milwaukee's lineup all year long. Even if he gets displaced from the three-hole, Frelick’s on-base skills make him a candidate to swap with the more well-rounded Christian Yelich at the leadoff position.
That would keep Frelick in the running to score plenty of runs and steal lots of bases. His nickname suggests he’s capable of gathering plenty of knocks as well.
Jordan Westburg - 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 329.4
There was plenty of fanfare amongst the fantasy community when the Baltimore Orioles finally elevated Jordan Westburg on June 26 after he raked at Triple-A Norfolk. The 2020 first-rounder and Baltimore’s top infield prospect for 2022 represented one of fantasy’s top redraft prospects to stash up until this point, but he never truly strung together a hot streak at any stage of 2023 and was unable to climb the order.
As a result, he’s now vying for a roster spot in Baltimore’s loaded class of youth. Although Westburg can cover virtually the entire infield defensively, Gunnar Henderson is locked in at shortstop, and Jackson Holliday -- baseball’s No. 1 prospect -- appears poised to begin the year on the Opening Day roster, barring a poor spring. Westburg is off to a nice start, though.
Jordan Westburg - Baltimore Orioles (1)* https://t.co/ZMXUdtfbeB
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) February 27, 2024
In addition, veteran Ramon Urias and speed merchant Jorge Mateo round out a stacked O's roster to give Westburg even more competition for playing time. Westburg may ultimately need just a bit more time in the minor leagues to marinate, but he exhibited significant power/speed prospects in the bigs with a 44.5% hard-hit rate and 88th-percentile sprint speed in 2023.
If Holliday starts slow, Westburg will have a chance to settle in at second base with solid range defensively. He may not have the arm to consistently man the hot corner, but the 25-year-old's versatility could go a long way in securing an everyday role after being a part-timer last year.
Rostered in only 25% of Yahoo leagues, Westburg is the better redraft ADP value over Holliday this spring as a player with 20-20 upside and multi-position eligibility.
Honorable Mentions
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