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After being picked in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth capitalized on an injury-riddled season for incumbent veteran Eric Ebron in his rookie year. The Penn State product turned in 60 receptions on 79 targets for 493 receiving yards in 16 games that campaign. A TE-leading 20 red zone targets would help yield seven touchdowns (11.7% rate) for Freiermuth to offset a ceiling-canceling two deep targets in '21.
Freiermuth developed into more of a well-rounded threat in 2022 with the Steelers. The second-year pass catcher submitted another 60-catch compilation on 98 targets in year two. This time, however, he converted his 63 receptions into a more efficient 732 yards during another 16 contests. Freiermuth reached 12 deep targets last season, which represented the third most among TEs.
What are some other factors that can contribute to a 2023 Freiermuth breakout case? Let’s see what we’re looking for.
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What Did Pat Freiermuth's '22 Fantasy Football Profile Look Like?
Let's get the bad out of the way first. Pat Freiermuth was admittedly neither a high-floor nor high-ceiling play in fantasy circles last year. A mediocre 69.8% snap share for the campaign would attribute to a few late-season goose eggs on his game log. His highest-scoring effort was a seven-catch, 85-yard Week 4 outing. With the TE position cultivating a barren wasteland in ‘22 besides Travis Kelce, Freiermuth still managed an overall TE7 season in full-PPR leagues despite his low-upside nature.
Now looking at the good, Freiermuth checked most of the significant boxes we’re looking for when it comes to opportunity/volume. He ranked fifth in targets (98), seventh in target rate (24.9%), and ninth in target share (19.0%) amongst TEs a season ago. Freiermuth also sat fourth in air yards (849) and eighth in air yards share (18.4%) at his position.
Despite some dodgy quarterback play throughout the year, Freiermuth earned PlayerProfiler’s third-highest target quality rating (6.24) and registered the fifth-best catchable target rate (87.8%) out of qualifying TEs. Fantasy managers seek continued stability in these areas with signal-caller Kenny Pickett entering his first full season under center.
Freiermuth racked up the fourth-most unrealized air yards (403), which perhaps signifies one of the most promising categories in justifying a future breakout case. Finally, the 24-year-old received PFF’s fifth-highest grade for offense and seventh-best mark for pass routes amongst TEs with at least 31 targets. Freiermuth’s 1.68 yards per route run also constitute quite an encouraging figure.
Can The Steelers Offense Support A Potential Pat Freiermuth '23 Fantasy Football Breakout?
Pittsburgh’s offensive line is widely regarded as one of football's more below-average units entering '23. However, it could theoretically lend itself to Pat Freiermuth being a busy target as a safety valve and chain mover for Pickett. The possession receiver averaged a rock-solid 4.3 catches for 49.5 receiving yards in 12 games with Pickett last year. Fantasy managers hope the two youngsters can increase their chemistry in the red-zone area, as Freiermuth only netted one score over this interval.
The third-year TE will need to stave off speedy third-round rookie Darnell Washington Jr. for snaps as well. However, Washington, owner of PlayerProfiler’s ninth-highest graded TE athleticism score of all time, shows a significant lack of college production. It perhaps implies he’ll have a steep learning curve to overcome before rounding out his game and becoming an every-down player in the NFL. Washington doesn’t ultimately project enough rookie-year playing time to disrupt Freiermuth’s breakout candidacy.
Freiermuth’s early-career returns are strong enough - historic actually - to create optimism for a considerable third-year leap. He stands alongside only one other TE in NFL history (Keith Jackson) in recording 60 catches in each of their first two seasons. Freiermuth has a real chance of finishing second in team targets behind target hog Diontae Johnson after the exciting, yet inconsistent George Pickens logged a paltry 16.3% target rate in his rookie year.
With the seventh-easiest TE strength of schedule in '23, per FantasyPros, Freiermuth signifies a fine later-round TE alongside the likes of Darren Waller, Evan Engram, and David Njoku before the position drastically dries out. While Freiermuth may not flaunt the ceiling of these names, his track record implies he’s as good a bet as any of them to bank 60 catches at a tough position to muster production out of.
Treat Freiermuth as a low-end TE1 in Pittsburgh’s admittedly uninspiring offense with offensive coordinator Matt Canada sticking around on the sidelines. His offense has finished 23rd in yards in both years calling plays since '21. While he admittedly isn’t likely to post many high-scoring weeks in this lackluster offensive attack, Freiermuth figures to serve as a model of consistency looking for his third straight 60-catch collection. If anything, his 3.1% touchdown rate from last year is due for positive regression in '23.
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