You can almost smell the Georgia pines—Augusta is just around the corner. But before we get there, we have one more stop: San Antonio, Texas, for the annual Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.
This week, players are making their final adjustments, fine-tuning their games in preparation for the season’s first major. I’ve carefully analyzed player trends, course history, and key statistical categories to predict the best course fits for this event.
Let’s dive into my Top 10 Power Rankings for the 2025 Valero Texas Open:
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSNo. 10 - Si Woo Kim
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Elite short game: Ranks Top 10 in sand saves and Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ARG) over his last 50 rounds.
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Strong course history: T4, T23, T13, and T39 in his last four Valero starts.
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Despite being one of the shorter hitters off the tee, Kim has excelled on Par 5s—a crucial key to unlocking TPC San Antonio.
No. 9 - Denny McCarthy
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Came close to victory last year, firing a nuclear Sunday round before falling in a playoff.
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Known as one of the best putters on Tour, but his iron play has been the real surprise:
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Five straight starts gaining at least +2 SG: Approach.
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T18 or better in four of his last five starts—he’s knocking on the door of a breakthrough win.
Working on an example of a Reactive Neuromuscular Training technique with Denny McCarthy and his coach Brian Creghan.
RNT is characterized by forcing an athlete INTO the position or pattern you want them to avoid to help emphasize what they need to do (or feel).
By pulling… pic.twitter.com/8ZHhyqE4PG
— TPI (@MyTPI) February 5, 2025
No. 8 - Jordan Spieth
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Spieth in Texas. Just play him. No. 1 in SG: Total on Texas courses.
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Capable of going low—just needs to string together four solid rounds.
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+7.6 SG: Approach at the Valspar Championship shows his irons are dialed in.
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Knows these San Antonio greens better than most.
No. 7 - Daniel Berger
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Five consecutive Top 25 finishes—trending in the right direction.
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Short-game specialist:
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Gained strokes chipping and putting in five straight starts.
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Accurate off the tee: Top-5 in the field in Good Drives Gained this season.
No. 6 - Hideki Matsuyama
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Took two weeks off after a hot start to the season—should be rested and ready.
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No. 1 in SG: Around the Green and Top-5 in sand saves—thrives on courses with low GIR rates.
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T7 here last year despite losing two strokes putting.
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With a combined 16 PGA TOUR wins, we'd like to welcome Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns to the 2025 Valero Texas Open field! 🤩#ValeroTexasOpen | #VTO pic.twitter.com/TkidmgUtrl
— Valero Texas Open (@valerotxopen) February 27, 2025
No. 5 - Patrick Cantlay
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Second in the field in proximity from 225+ yards—excels on courses with long approaches.
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Limited 2025 schedule, but contended at both the Genesis and PLAYERS.
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No. 1 in GIR and birdies per round over his last 24 rounds—he’s close… really close.
No. 4 - Tommy Fleetwood
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Third in SG: Approach—his irons have been 🔥, with 4+ strokes gained on approach in three of his last five events.
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T7 at last year’s Valero Texas Open, gaining +10.5 strokes Tee-to-Green.
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Consistent performer: Worst finish in his last eight starts is T22—a rock-solid DFS play.
Tommy Fleetwood makes his 150th PGA Tour start this week.
Has anyone ever been better, with zero wins, through their first 150 tournaments than Fleetwood? pic.twitter.com/KsBhNEnGDx
— Joe I (@TourPicks) March 19, 2025
No. 3 - Akshay Bhatia
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Plays well on TPC courses—notably T3 at TPC Sawgrass this season.
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Above-average ball speed while hitting 64 percent of fairways—a lethal combo when he gains off the tee.
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Defending champion, winning last year’s Valero Texas Open in dominant fashion:
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+21.1 strokes gained on the field—outrageous.
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A winner in Texas 🏆
@AkshayBhatia_1 wins the @ValeroTXOpen on the first playoff hole. pic.twitter.com/uKAlpejle9— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 7, 2024
No. 2 - Ludwig Aberg
After winning the Genesis Invitational and getting his revenge on Torrey Pines, the highest ranked player in the field, Ludwig Aberg, has hit a minor bump in the road as a result of somewhat shaky iron play during the Florida swing. You can count on Aberg to typically lap the field off the tee, but he's only hitting 54 percent of fairways lately, which could create issues at TPC San Antonio for the world's No. 5-ranked player.
Aberg competed in the Valero Texas Open last year for the second time in his career, finishing T14 despite losing strokes around the green and on the putting surfaces. He did so by consistently hitting the greens in regulation, which has to be the formula once again to get his game back on track.
Aberg was rated surprisingly low in my stat model this week, but I'm a firm believer in his upside on any given week. He played his college ball at Texas Tech, so the former Red Raider should feel comfortable in the Lone Star State. If he gets back on track with his Driver after a few weeks of practice, he should have a great chance at another trophy to place on his mantle at home.
No. 1 - Corey Conners
There may be 45 other courses on the PGA Tour where you can call into question Corey Conner's winning upside, but TPC San Antonio is not one of them. Conners has put on the winner's cowboy boots twice in the last five years, winning this event in 2019 and again in 2023.
There's no questioning his incoming form either. In his last three starts, Conners finished third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, sixth at The PLAYERS, and T8 at the Valspar Championship. He did so with his signature elite-level approach play, but the surprising addition to his recent game has been the emergence of the putter.
Conners has now gained strokes by putting in four consecutive tournaments. TPC San Antonio is one of those courses where Conners has traditionally had putting success, so I would expect that to continue this week. He's always found success in Texas, and I'm not going to be the one to fade an in-form Conners at the Valero Texas Open.
Enjoy the Valero Texas Open, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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