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When it comes to potential fantasy football league-winners, it’s easy to pinpoint Travis Kelce alone for the sake of this article. He signifies a shoo-in candidate to lead tight ends in fantasy scoring (if healthy) after the four-time All-Pro outscored last season's overall TE2 (T.J. Hockenson) in full-PPR leagues by over 100 points.
The most valuable fantasy assets can also be those that are picked a bit later in drafts. There are plenty of commodities outside of the top tier that carry the upside to pace their position in points, and perhaps provide a more efficient return on investment considering their draft cost.
For instance, Josh Jacobs, a 2022 mid-round fantasy choice, was found on over 61% of the top 500 Public League teams on Yahoo after finishing as the overall RB3 in PPR leagues last season. Even though he trailed Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey, that tidbit arguably made Jacobs the fantasy MVP based on ADP. The goal of this article is to not delineate the most obvious overall TE1 possibilities, but perhaps find a player that closes as a top-tier option despite a less expensive price tag.
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2023 Fantasy Football League-Winner: Dallas Goedert
While I remain above consensus on Mark Andrews over all other TEs, perhaps even he is too mainstream of a pivot off Kelce as a league-winner. Let’s instead turn to Dallas Goedert, who placed third at his position in snap share (90.0%) in 2022 with Zach Ertz fully out of the mix.
Philadelphia drafted Goedert in Round 2 of the 2018 NFL Draft as Ertz's successor, and he's lived up to expectations. The South Dakota State product has averaged 4.3 receptions, 5.9 targets, and 58.6 receiving yards with seven touchdowns in 27 career games sans Ertz.
Goedert drew Pro Football Focus's fourth-best grade for both pass routes and offense among TEs with at least 31 targets in '22. The 28-year-old's 82.1% catch rate was far and away the best amongst fellow every-week fantasy TE1s. This level of efficiency may not be sustainable if Goedert experiences an uptick in targets in 2023, but it provides an idea of just how much of a difference-maker he can be.
Despite a lack of volume in Philadelphia’s loaded offense, Goedert posted one real blip on the radar with a two-catch, 22-yard Week 6 last season. Other than that, Goedert clearly signified a high-floor TE1 simply judging by the game logs. But he wasn’t quite able to unlock his ceiling in part due to Philly's run-heavy attack and a lack of touchdown scoring. The '22 Eagles enjoyed more positive game scripts than any other team.
What Separates Dallas Goedert From The Pack In '23?
Goedert has remarkably gathered 10.6 yards per target over the past two seasons, which puts him in the same light as some of the NFL's most elite wide receivers. It's also worth noting he was tied for the league lead in yards after catch per reception (7.8) out of qualifying TEs last year.
Goedert demonstrated evident chemistry with quarterback Jalen Hurts. The fifth-year pass-catcher closed as fourth among TEs in PlayerProfiler's (PP) target quality rating (6.10), sixth in catchable target rate (94.1%), and second in target accuracy (8.4).
Goedert’s average depth of target (6.2) shows a humdrum figure. But he compensated for that shortcoming with 425 yards after the catch, which sorted as third at his position despite missing four games. He generated an efficient 1.88 yards per team pass attempt, too.
The former second-round pick's 2.24 yards per route run and 12.8 yards per reception both resided inside the top five of TEs. Considering his YAC prowess, Goedert was curiously allowed 3.38 average yards of cushion per route run (PP) perhaps because Philly sports so many other weapons for defenses to assign attention to. With that, Goedert holds a high-level contingency upside in the event that A.J. Brown and/or DeVonta Smith get(s) injured.
What Is Dallas Goedert's Pathway To An Overall TE1 Finish?
Goedert was unable to submit double-digit targets in any of his 12 games played last year. Even though the Eagles are regarded as a run-centric squad, they stood average in terms of pass rate over expectation (-1.7% PROE). Philly may need to opt for a pass-heavier pursuit in order to support high-end fantasy value for three receivers. It could be plausible considering the tempo of their offense in neutral situations.
If Goedert has any chance of supplanting Kelce or Andrews atop the ranks, we would likely need Philly's defense to take a bit of a step back to enable greater shootout potential. Goedert may also require a regular dose of big plays, which are not particularly predictable, to evolve into the league winner we're hoping for. However, his vertical abilities as well as those with the ball in his hands bode quite well for his candidacy.
I liken Goedert to George Kittle as similar spiked-week threats and No. 3 options in potent offenses. However, we'll give Goedert the edge for a more reliable QB situation and an offense that was more concentrated toward their “Big Three” of receivers than San Francisco was a year ago.
Kyle Pitts, a cinch post-hype sleeper candidate, carries several red flags after a disastrous '22. He should be better in '23, but Atlanta’s run-stubborn philosophy (-13.1% PROE) could curb his receiving upside enough to remove much chance of an overall TE1 close.
Goedert's name represents quite a constant fixture in Rounds 7/8 of fantasy drafts this summer, which is a great opportunity to snag an upper-echelon TE1 before the position significantly dries out. His every-down role in a high-flying offense is undeniable. That potential recipe for fantasy goodness is an aspect we should gladly want to sign up for at a barren position.
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