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Sonny Gray 2024 Outlook: Brand Name Masks Generic Production
12 months agoSonny Gray posted a stellar 2023 for the Twins, going 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA and 3.64 xFIP in 184 IP. However, Gray is not a good value at his ADP of 124.80. Gray's 5.2% HR/FB was less than half his career rate of 11.5, so regression is coming. Gray's 24.3 K% was also league-average, and a quick look at his repertoire offers little strikeout upside. Gray throws six pitches: a fastball (6.6 SwStr%), a slider (19.8 SwStr%), a curve (12.6 SwStr%), a sinker (6.9 SwStr%), a cutter (13 SwStr%), and a change (6.4 SwStr%). All are below-average save for Gray's slider, which is let down by a 37.7 Zone% and 38.9% chase rate. Without strikeouts, Gray is more reliant on his defense than most. Some are saying that the Cards defense will help him, but the Cardinals weren't a good defensive team in 2023 with -6 Outs Above Average. Gray is dealing with a right hamstring injury as well, and while it's been described as "mild" his Opening Day status is "in question." With Gray's pedestrian strikeout totals, outsized reliance on luck to produce wins and ratio help, and uncertain availability, it makes more sense to select a high-upside arm such as Hunter Greene (139.46 ADP) a round or so later who will do more good if everything breaks right.
