3 months agoMacon, Georgia native Russell Henley has long established himself as one of the PGA Tour's most reliable ball-strikers. His exceptional pedigree at venues like Waialae, Sedgefield, and Sea Island would point to a skillset that should fare very well around Pebble's short, strategic layout. However, like many golfers based in the Southeast, Henley has found the adjustment to West Coast poa annua a very difficult transition throughout his career. Historically one of the best putters on Tour on Bermuda grass, Henley has regressed to a player fighting against the field average when making the trip to the opposite coast. This has shown up in his past results here: as Russell has made just two of four cuts around Pebble Beach; finishing inside the top 50 on just one occasion. He certainly has the tee-to-green prowess to conquer Pebble's positional layout, but it's difficult to project the 34-year-old suddenly figuring it out on a surface that has given him fits for over a decade.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoAfter a stellar four-month stretch to end 2023 that solidified him as one of the Tour's clearest breakout candidates, J.T. Poston has started the New Year in much the same form. His three January finishes of 5th, 6th, and 11th carry on a run of eight top-12 finishes
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3 months agoXander Schauffele has started his 2024 campaign in much the same way he ended in 2023: by being one of the most reliable entities on a week-in, week-out basis on the PGA Tour. Schauffele has already recorded finishes of 10th, 3rd, and 9th this month at Kapalua, PGA West, and Torrey Pines, and now travels back to a venue where he finished in a tie for third at the 2019 U.S. Open. His all-around game and particular affinity for West Coast poa annua greens make him a difficult proposition to bet against this week. The only question remaining on Xander's profile is when he'll finally be able to get over the hump on a Sunday and break his nearly 18-month winless drought.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoPatrick Rodgers has had a great start to the 2024 PGA Tour season, with three top-25 finishes in recent events. He secured a tied-ninth place at the Farmers Insurance Open last week and a T24 position two weeks ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, his past performance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am tournament was not so good, as he missed the cut in his last two appearances. Despite his current form, statistics indicate he may struggle again at this year's event. Last year, over 32% of his approach shots were made from 100-150 yards, and since the start of 2023, Rodgers ranks in the 22nd percentile for Greens-In-Regulation and the 32nd percentile for proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards from the fairway. Therefore, even though Rodgers has been playing well recently, there is still some risk in including him in DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoJason Day is set to return to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after missing last year's event. In 2022, Day finished T24 at this tournament. However, he has performed well in his past three appearances, with a tie for seventh in 2021, fourth in 2020, and tied for fourth in 2019. Despite his previous success, Day needs to improve his approach play from 100-150 yards. Since January 1, 2023, he has only ranked in the 34th percentile in Greens-In-Regulation on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. Day may not receive much attention this week, but he could be an interesting pick for DFS lineups.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoDavis Thompson did not make the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last week after finishing T21 at The American Express two weeks ago. He will debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week. However, he may face a challenge similar to last week's. He may find it difficult to compete if he cannot put his approach shots closer to the hole than he did last year. Since January 1, 2023, Thompson has ranked in the 20th percentile in proximity to the hole and the 44th percentile in Greens-In-Regulation on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. It is important to note that over 32% of approach shots were taken from 100-150 yards in last year's tournament. Considering his recent performances and course fit, Thompson may not be a good fit for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoTom Hoge has only missed one cut in his first four appearances in the 2024 season. Last week, he finished T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and two weeks ago, he finished T17 at The American Express. Hoge is now gearing up to participate in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, an event he has performed well in the past. In 2023, he finished T48, first place in 2022, and 12th in 2021. Hoge's success in this event can be attributed to his impressive rankings in proximity to the hole (93rd percentile) and Greens-In-Regulation on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway (81st percentile) since January 1, 2023. This has proven to serve Hoge well because over 32% of approach shots came from 100-150 yards at last year's tournament. Hoge has been playing well and is worth considering for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoBrendon Todd missed last week's The American Express, but he's back and ready to tee it up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Todd has a good track record in this tournament, finishing tied for second in 2023 and T16 in 2022. He has the skills to win the tournament this year, as he ranks in the 82nd percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway since January 1, 2023. This is particularly important because over 32% of approach shots in last year's tournament came from that distance. Todd has already achieved two top-35 finishes in his first two 2024 appearances, and his previous success in this tournament makes him an interesting choice for DFS lineups.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoAdam Schenk had a solid T25 finish at last week's Farmers Insurance Open but missed the cut the previous week at The American Express. This week, he will compete at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he finished T37 last year. It's worth mentioning that Schenk ranks in the 39th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway since January 1, 2023. This is crucial because if Schenk can perform well with his putter as he did at last week's Farmers Insurance Open, he has a chance to do well on Sunday. However, if he can't do well with his putter, he'll most likely not make it to the top. Schenk could be an interesting choice for DFS lineups this week, but some risk is involved.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoLuke List finished T50 at last week's Farmers Insurance Open and will tee it up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for the first time since 2016, when he failed to make the cut. List will need to replicate the form he showed at The Sentry earlier this month to give himself a chance to compete. At last year's tournament, over 32% of approach shots came from 100-150 yards, and since January 1, 2023, List has ranked in the 78th percentile for Greens-In-Regulation on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. List has played well, but including him in DFS lineups comes with some risk.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoWith his driving accuracy and elite approach skills, Corey Conners should have a lot of chances on a course like Pebble Beach. With small greens, Conners' irons give him an advantage over others, but his short-game struggles create issues. Conners missed the cut in both previous trips, but he's a much better player than he was in 2018 and 2019. If Conners continues to have issues scrambling, it could mean another poor performance at Pebble Beach.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoWith all the talent in the world, it's been confusing to predict how Cam Young will perform since last spring. Young's approach game was a struggle at times last season, but appears to be back in his last three starts. The club that has been a real concern is Young's putter, which had been poor outside of a few weeks when it popped up. The way Young is ball striking currently should give him an advantage at Pebble Beach, but it will come down to whether he can convert enough birdie attempts.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoThe fall was memorable for Ludvig Aberg, but until last week it had been a struggle to start the season. Aberg posted his first top-10 finish of the season at Farmers where his elite driver was a weapon. This week at Pebble Beach is a different story. Aberg will be asked to show off his scrambling skills, which haven't been to the same level as his long game this year. On another new course against a field of the best players, it could be another average start for the young star.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoTo put Patrick Cantlay into a lineup this week, it's better to look at prior Pebble Beach leaderboards instead of his recent results. After a solid start to the season at Sentry, Cantlay hasn't cracked the top 50 since the PGA Tour entered California. Fortunately for Cantlay, he has had great success at this course, unlike last week. Cantlay managed a T4 finish last year without having a good approach week so he may turn in another high finish despite the recent struggles.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoEven in a loaded field for a signature event, it's interesting to see Collin Morikawa priced at the bottom of the $9,000 range on DraftKings. Before last week's missed cut, Morikawa was on a run of top-10 finishes including a win at the ZOZO Championship. Last week was a poor performance with the putter, which isn't surprising for the star. Morikawa has the game to bounce back on a course like Pebble that requires elite approach play with tiny greens if he can make some putts.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
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