3 months agoScottie Scheffler could not putt to get out of his own way last year. The Texas native ranked 161st in putting, but then there is TPC Scottsdale. On the Arizona course, Scheffler has gained three-plus strokes there three times. Considering how far below-average he was in his previous 15 events, his putter comes out to play at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. At the very least, Scheffler should be able to contend. No one would be surprised to see him on the first page of the leaderboard again on Sunday.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoBefore taking the week off last week, Sam Burns placed sixth at the American Express two weeks ago, and while strokes gained data is largely tough to pinpoint at that event, we do know he gained an impressive 9.9 total strokes in La Quinta. That upside is what we've come to know from Burns, but he can disappear at times as well, as he did in his -0.5 stroke performance in the Sentry at his only other 2024 start thus far. The 27-year-old only has one other start at Pebble Beach in his history, and it was a T39 showing at the 2021 AT&T Pro-Am. It's always dangerous fading Burns, but it doesn't seem like a spot to take a stand yet, especially considering a lofty $8,900 price tag on DraftKings for the Louisiana native.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoAfter two strong starts to start 2024, Sungjae Im's game fell apart at the Farmers, and he missed the cut for the first time since last July. The South Korean has yet to put everything together, but it's still early. Im heads to Pebble Beach for just the second time in his career, with a missed cut in 2019 as his only result. Even at just 25 years old, it's becoming clear that his game can spike at a moment's notice, so it's always dangerous to right him off. However, with a limited course history and a questionable form coming into this early February event, it's probably safe to steer clear from Im at $8,500 on DraftKings.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoEric Cole is coming off his first missed cut since last May, but you'd think he's been out of the picture for a while based on his $7,300 DraftKings price tag. On the contrary, the California native was playing great golf before the Farmers, having gained a combined 17.4 strokes in his first three events of 2024. Cole has a T15 finish in his only other appearance at Pebble Beach, and while the weather can certainly throw in more variables than we might be able to predict, it's fair to say there's decent value on the late-blooming 35-year-old.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoMaking his first start at the AT&T Pro-Am since his rookie season in 2011, Keegan Bradley will be looking to find some level of consistency on the West Coast. A runner-up finish three weeks ago on Oahu has been bookended by two disappointing outings at Kapalua and Torrey Pines, as Bradley has struggled to find the range with his typically reliable putter (well, by 2023 standards anyway). In the two aforementioned starts at the Farmers and Sentry, Bradley has lost a combined 8.0 strokes on the greens in seven recorded rounds; harkening many of his supporters back to the player we saw continually hemorrhage strokes on the greens from 2015 to 2021. West Coast poa hasn't exactly been Bradley's favorite historic putting surface, but if he can stabilize the stroke over the next four days, his recent ball-striking display around a similarly positional layout in Waialae gives us plenty of reason for optimism around Pebble Beach.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoJust two weeks ago, Nick Dunlap was just another undergrad at the University of Alabama. An immaculate 2023 on the amateur circuit earned him status as one of the most promising prospects in the golfing world, but even his most ardent supporters couldn't have imagined his potential being fulfilled so soon. Dunlap turned a sponsor's invite at The American Express into a one-shot win, outdueling a duo with a combined 20 PGA Tour wins in the process, and earned his way into the collection of PGA Tour signature events. These 80-man, exclusive fields will be the ultimate proving ground for the 20-year-old, as he'll be able to test his abilities against the best fields the PGA Tour has to offer whilst being eligible for a share of an eye-popping eight-figure prize pool. Time will tell just how ready Dunlap is to compete against the world's best every week, but it's hard to imagine a better opportunity in the history of the sport for a 20-year-old recent college sophomore.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoMacon, Georgia native Russell Henley has long established himself as one of the PGA Tour's most reliable ball-strikers. His exceptional pedigree at venues like Waialae, Sedgefield, and Sea Island would point to a skillset that should fare very well around Pebble's short, strategic layout. However, like many golfers based in the Southeast, Henley has found the adjustment to West Coast poa annua a very difficult transition throughout his career. Historically one of the best putters on Tour on Bermuda grass, Henley has regressed to a player fighting against the field average when making the trip to the opposite coast. This has shown up in his past results here: as Russell has made just two of four cuts around Pebble Beach; finishing inside the top 50 on just one occasion. He certainly has the tee-to-green prowess to conquer Pebble's positional layout, but it's difficult to project the 34-year-old suddenly figuring it out on a surface that has given him fits for over a decade.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoAfter a stellar four-month stretch to end 2023 that solidified him as one of the Tour's clearest breakout candidates, J.T. Poston has started the New Year in much the same form. His three January finishes of 5th, 6th, and 11th carry on a run of eight top-12 finishes
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3 months agoXander Schauffele has started his 2024 campaign in much the same way he ended in 2023: by being one of the most reliable entities on a week-in, week-out basis on the PGA Tour. Schauffele has already recorded finishes of 10th, 3rd, and 9th this month at Kapalua, PGA West, and Torrey Pines, and now travels back to a venue where he finished in a tie for third at the 2019 U.S. Open. His all-around game and particular affinity for West Coast poa annua greens make him a difficult proposition to bet against this week. The only question remaining on Xander's profile is when he'll finally be able to get over the hump on a Sunday and break his nearly 18-month winless drought.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoPatrick Rodgers has had a great start to the 2024 PGA Tour season, with three top-25 finishes in recent events. He secured a tied-ninth place at the Farmers Insurance Open last week and a T24 position two weeks ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, his past performance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am tournament was not so good, as he missed the cut in his last two appearances. Despite his current form, statistics indicate he may struggle again at this year's event. Last year, over 32% of his approach shots were made from 100-150 yards, and since the start of 2023, Rodgers ranks in the 22nd percentile for Greens-In-Regulation and the 32nd percentile for proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards from the fairway. Therefore, even though Rodgers has been playing well recently, there is still some risk in including him in DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoJason Day is set to return to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after missing last year's event. In 2022, Day finished T24 at this tournament. However, he has performed well in his past three appearances, with a tie for seventh in 2021, fourth in 2020, and tied for fourth in 2019. Despite his previous success, Day needs to improve his approach play from 100-150 yards. Since January 1, 2023, he has only ranked in the 34th percentile in Greens-In-Regulation on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. Day may not receive much attention this week, but he could be an interesting pick for DFS lineups.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoDavis Thompson did not make the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last week after finishing T21 at The American Express two weeks ago. He will debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week. However, he may face a challenge similar to last week's. He may find it difficult to compete if he cannot put his approach shots closer to the hole than he did last year. Since January 1, 2023, Thompson has ranked in the 20th percentile in proximity to the hole and the 44th percentile in Greens-In-Regulation on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. It is important to note that over 32% of approach shots were taken from 100-150 yards in last year's tournament. Considering his recent performances and course fit, Thompson may not be a good fit for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoTom Hoge has only missed one cut in his first four appearances in the 2024 season. Last week, he finished T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and two weeks ago, he finished T17 at The American Express. Hoge is now gearing up to participate in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, an event he has performed well in the past. In 2023, he finished T48, first place in 2022, and 12th in 2021. Hoge's success in this event can be attributed to his impressive rankings in proximity to the hole (93rd percentile) and Greens-In-Regulation on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway (81st percentile) since January 1, 2023. This has proven to serve Hoge well because over 32% of approach shots came from 100-150 yards at last year's tournament. Hoge has been playing well and is worth considering for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoBrendon Todd missed last week's The American Express, but he's back and ready to tee it up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Todd has a good track record in this tournament, finishing tied for second in 2023 and T16 in 2022. He has the skills to win the tournament this year, as he ranks in the 82nd percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway since January 1, 2023. This is particularly important because over 32% of approach shots in last year's tournament came from that distance. Todd has already achieved two top-35 finishes in his first two 2024 appearances, and his previous success in this tournament makes him an interesting choice for DFS lineups.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoAdam Schenk had a solid T25 finish at last week's Farmers Insurance Open but missed the cut the previous week at The American Express. This week, he will compete at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he finished T37 last year. It's worth mentioning that Schenk ranks in the 39th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway since January 1, 2023. This is crucial because if Schenk can perform well with his putter as he did at last week's Farmers Insurance Open, he has a chance to do well on Sunday. However, if he can't do well with his putter, he'll most likely not make it to the top. Schenk could be an interesting choice for DFS lineups this week, but some risk is involved.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
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