2 months agoRussell Henley is heading to the Arnold Palmer Invitational after securing a T41 finish at last week's Cognizant Classic. In 2024, Henley has made five appearances and hasn't missed a cut yet, including two top-25 finishes. He has a decent track record at Bay Hill, with a T53 finish in 2023 and a T13 finish in 2022. Over the last 12 months, his approach play has been slightly above average, and he ranks in the 51st percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is worth noting since last year's edition had over 34% of approach shots from 150-200 yards. Given his recent form, Henley could be a valuable addition to DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 months agoHideki Matsuyama, who missed the Cognizant Classic last week, will play in the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. Matsuyama has been performing exceptionally well in the 2024 season, with three top-25 finishes, including a win in The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. He has not missed a cut in his six appearances this year. Despite missing the cut last year, Matsuyama has generally performed well in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, finishing T20 in 2022 and T18 in 2021. He can repeat his past success if he continues his strong approach play. In the previous 12 months, Matsuyama ranked in the 81st percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway, which is important to note because over 34% of approach shots came from 150-200 yards in last year's tournament. Matsuyama should be a strong contender for DFS lineups.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 months agoAfter missing the cut in his first two events of the season, Doug Ghim has caught lightning in a bottle. After a T13 at the Farmers, a T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and a T8 at the Mexico Open, the former Longhorn comes into the Florida run perhaps with more fuel than anyone, at least anyone without a win. His worst strokes-gained metric is putting at .090, and he's currently ranked 83rd on the season. Everything else is inside the top 40, with a No. 5 ranking (1.434) in strokes gained from tee to green and a No. 6 rank (1.525) in strokes gained total being the highlights. It's worth noting that Ghim hasn't made the cut here in three tries, but his body of work over the past four weeks is all the proof needed to make the plunge.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoMaverick McNealy is off to a solid start to his new year with a T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and a T13 last week in Mexico. The 28-year-old is 23rd (.960) in strokes gained total, 26th (.633) in strokes gained putting, and 43rd (.346) in strokes gained off the tee. The things that happen in the middle are what has kept McNealy out of the winner's circle, as he is ranked 121st (minus-.259) in strokes gained on approach. In his two appearances at PGA National, the Stanford, California, native has a missed cut and finished T11. He'll need to find some magic with his irons, but everything else is there for him to have another good performance.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoThe first two months of the 2024 season haven't been bad for Lucas Glover, but they haven't been great, either. After a wild few weeks through the playoffs last season, the 44-year-old has gotten off to an incredibly shaky start with his putter in his four events so far this year. He is currently ranked 176th (minus-1.025) in strokes gained in putting, and while some could argue it is a result of playing on uncomfortable surfaces, his long history of poor putting suggests otherwise. Glover's impeccable ball-striking continues to be a strength, as he ranks 25th (.606) in strokes gained on approach. His history around PGA National is also as positive as it is extensive. But it certainly feels like Father Time may be catching up with the former Clemson Tiger, which makes him more of a desperation play than a confident one.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoKeeping the momentum going from week to week has been the pitfall in Erik Van Rooyen's career. He's no stranger to sprinkling in a top-10 performance between a string of missed cuts, or have things going great for a few weeks before a massive letdown that lasts for a month or more. That roller coaster makes him a tough pick almost every week, and his solid start to the season begs the question: When is the cliff coming? EVR currently ranks 17th in strokes gained off the tee (.581), 48th in strokes gained on approach (.404), and 56th in strokes gained in putting (.280), so forecasting a slump won't be found in the statistics. However, his history at PGA National is not great by any stretch, with a best finish of T60 in 2021. If a fall from form is coming, this week could be it.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoOn paper, Adam Svensson looks like he should be a weekly contender. He's inside the top 50 in several statistical categories, most notably in strokes gained off the tee (46th at .320) and strokes gained on approach (37th at .508). But it's hard to contend when you can't get the ball in the hole. The Canadian is ranked 134th in strokes gained in putting (minus-.356), so if he doesn't build on his decent course history (T49--T9--T59), it will likely come down to his success with the flat stick. At $9,300 for FanDuel pricing and projected ownership of over 12%, it will take a sizable turnaround on the greens for Svensson to be justifiable. However, his T10 at Riviera will draw some bettors in his direction.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoBeau Hossler has continued to rise the elite ladder since getting his card in 2018, with most of that growth coming in the post-COVID era. The 64th-ranked player in the world has made all five cuts on the year, with a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open as his best finish up to this point. He currently ranks 20th in strokes gained in putting (.688) and 30th in strokes gained total (.895). His history around PGA National is nothing to slouch at. The Texas Longhorn has made the cut in all three attempts, highlighted by a T16 in 2022. At $9,700 on FanDuel, Hossler has shown more in this young season than most other guys around him.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoSo far on the season, Denny McCarthy is 4-for-4 on made cuts with two top-25 finishes. His bread and butter has been with his putter and wedges, where he ranks 37th in strokes gained in putting (.472) and 70th in strokes gained around the green (.143). His biggest weakness has been with the driver, but given that PGA National doesn't rank very high in terms of length at 7,140 yards, it isn't the worst detriment. His tournament history has been feast or famine (missed cut, T30, T3 and another missed cut) in his last four tries, but with his solid consistency to start the year and a projected ownership under 8%, McCarthy may be a name to circle this week.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoLooking back over the last 18 months since Taylor Montgomery earned full status on the PGA Tour, it's been remarkable to watch his propensity for grinding out top results despite lacking in many of the game's key areas. Although Montgomery routinely rates out as one of the worst ball-strikers on a weekly basis, he's recorded five top-25 finishes (and just one missed cut), over his last nine starts -- including a 13th-place finish around Torrey Pines, one of the more demanding layouts we'll see all year. The putter is very clearly the greatest weapon in Montgomery's bag, and the nearly four strokes he's gained per tournament over the last year already sits as one of the more impressive stretches we've ever seen a player have on the greens. Until he proves himself as a more proficient ball striker, it's hard to project Montgomery for the same ceiling as his contemporaries. But the built-in floor afforded to him by one of the game's most elite weapons makes him a compelling play in derivative markets.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoAlthough he first arrived on the PGA Tour as one of the game's premier short-game maestros, Christiaan Bezuidenhout has spent the last 12 months reshaping his image into one of the more decorated iron players in this field. Over his last five starts, Bezuidenhout has gained nearly a stroke and a half per round with his approach play, and over a 12-month sample, he rates out as a top-five middle iron player in this field. These recent ball-striking developments have served to drastically raise Christiaan's week-to-week ceiling, as the South African has recorded four top-ten finishes around the world since the start of last October. Given these newfound gains, and the historic acumen he's always shown around the state of Florida, Bezuidenhout casts an imposing figure as one of the week's premier dark horses.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoFor much of the Sunday afternoon coverage around Riviera, Luke List seemed to be the man to beat at the Genesis Invitational. An opening-nine 30 put him two clear of the field heading to the tenth tee box before three costly bogeys over his next six holes allowed Hideki Matsuyama to storm up the leaderboard. Still, a runner-up finish at one of the marquee events of the season is nothing to sneeze at, and List will now head to a venue that played host to another of his closest calls. Luke lost in a playoff here in 2018 to Justin Thomas after JT stuck a clutch wedge to tap-in range on the final hole of regulation. Six years later, List has a chance to atone for past shortcomings, and given the way he's been playing recently, his backers won't just have course history to lean on to make their cases.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoDespite being one of the more unheralded DP World Tour imports heading into the 2024 PGA Season, Matthieu Pavon has strung together one of the most impressive debut runs we've ever seen from a new member. His incredible win at the vaunted Torrey Pines was backed up the very next week with a third-place finish at Pebble Beach's star-studded event and proved to golf fans around the world that the Frenchman is more than capable of popping up at a multitude of different venues. His next start will now come at PGA National's historically international-friendly confines, on a golf course that compares favorably to one Pavon should be very well acquainted with: Le Golf National in Paris. Time will tell if Pavon is truly the player he's shown himself to be over the last 3-4 months, but if you come into this week looking to ride a hot hand, it's hard to argue against Pavon as one of the week's most undervalued entities.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoIt's been a middling few months for the 2019 Open Champion, as Shane Lowry has gone five events without a top-20 finish on the PGA Tour. His 60th-place result at the WM Open was bookended with a final round 76, which undid a lot of the early progress he'd made in the early going around TPC Scottsdale. Stringing good rounds together has not been a problem for Shane around this week's venue, however, as the Irishman has logged finishes of fifth and second over his last two appearances at PGA National and is currently on a run of eight straight rounds at level par or better. It's an impressive record to have around these treacherous confines, and Lowry will be looking to draw as much inspiration from these past performances as possible in his quest to kickstart his 2024 campaign. He's spoken glowingly in the past about his affinity for this notoriously difficult setup and stands a very good chance of at least improving on his current recent spell in the golfing doldrums.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoRyo Hisatsune will play at PGA National for the first time in the Cognizant Classic this week. The 21-year-old has predictably faced some ups and downs so far in his five 2024 PGA Tour events, but the upside in his game is evident, especially if he could ever combine an above-average approach week with some hot putting. Hisatsune has a very dependable around-the-green game that could come into play at PGA National, but the lack of experience at a typically-daunting track is something that fantasy managers might have trouble stomaching in the end. For $7,300 on DraftKings, the risk might be worth the reward for some, especially in GPP tournaments, but it typically makes sense to look more towards course history in a week like this.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
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