Devin Williams 2024 Player Outlook: All-Star Closer Becomes Late-Round Gamble Due To Three-Month Setback
3 months ago2023 marked Milwaukee Brewers closer Devin Williams' (back) first full year out of Josh Hader's shadow and into the spotlight, and he continued to show why he's one of the best relievers in baseball. Williams began the year with a shutout April, tossing 9 1/3 innings with five saves before allowing his first run. Not impervious to implosions, however, Williams' four-run outing on June 13 would signify his first blown save of the season and balloon his ERA from a sublime 0.42 to 2.08. But the right-hander's ERA would not worsen beyond that figure, entrenching himself as a fantasy stalwart with a 1.22 ERA (1.99 FIP), 57:17 K:BB, and 26 saves in 37 frames over his final 39 appearances to close out the campaign. A troubling 12.1% walk rate didn't stop the 29-year-old two-time All-Star from bringing home the second NL Reliever of the Year award of his career. While Williams' reliance on the "Airbender" changeup lends itself to a high rate of free passes, it's hard to poke holes into a pitcher who ranked in the top six percent or better in average exit velocity (85.9), hard-hit rate (29.6%), and strikeout rate (37.7%). The Brewers didn't add any significant help to their bullpen this offseason, leaving Williams with a clear runway to closing duties when he returns for Milwaukee later in 2024. With that said, Williams’ draft stock took a crushing blow when it was announced on March 13 he’ll miss three months due to two stress fractures in his back. The two-time Hoffman Reliever of the Year goes from fantasy’s undisputed top closer to more of a late-round gamble, though he’s expected to make a full recovery and return by midseason. The diagnosis is still likely to keep Williams off the field until around the All-Star break; it’s hard to justify sinking significant draft capital into any player that could miss half the campaign. He still has a path to 20 saves and offers elite per-game upside, though.