RADIO
Predicting busts is surprisingly easy if you really think about it. Looking at a player’s age is a good starting point, but their recent season performances are even more telling. The guys listed below are players who I think will underwhelm expectations in 2018.
You won’t be seeing fantasy studs like Jose Ramirez or Brian Dozier on this list, though. Projecting star players to bust is usually bad practice.
With that being said, let’s take a look at some second basemen set to underperform in 2018.
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Second Basemen to Avoid
Scooter Gennett, Reds (ADP: 206)
Without looking at his Fangraphs page you could probably guess what’s up here: last year’s astronomical 20.8% HR/FB is going to crash down and a .531 SLG was well above his career average. Here's what's crazy: even though 2017 was by far his best season, his contact rates were down across the board. Career lows in O-Swing% and Z-Swing% during a career year is an absolute riddle. He hit more home runs but took fewer swings, and he hit .295 but maintained career-low contact rates. Uh… okay? On the surface, Gennett's metrics mishmash is something you should stay away from because when in doubt, assume regression. You should know, however, that his increased fly ball rate and pull rate are encouraging to see from a developing power hitter. He absolutely mashes against right-handed pitchers and significantly boosted his hard contact rate on pulled batted balls (31.1%-39.2%). The problem with Gennett is that there are signs he'll hit 30 HR and signs he'll hit only 20 HR.
Don’t read this and totally fade Gennett in every draft, but just know that nearly everything in his profile points to impending regression.
Jose Peraza, Reds (ADP: 207)
Let me introduce you to 2017 Jose Peraza: 62 wRC+, .273 wOBA, .622 OPS, -0.2 WAR. That sucks.
Drafting Peraza around pick 200 is a recipe for disaster. The metrics simply indicate that he can’t hit. He just can’t do it. Go ahead and take Dinelson Lamet or Mitch Haniger or Blake Snell over Peraza. In the final rounds you should be targeting guys with metrics that suggest a 2018 breakout is on the table. Peraza is just one of those guys who you’ll probably drop a couple of weeks into the season because you can’t take his inability to produce. I don’t know why you would believe in Peraza as a fantasy asset unless you're desperate for steals late in your draft, but if he’s your late-round target, go ahead and take him. With Nick Senzel ready to make the leap into the majors, Peraza is not worth the risk. I’ll be glad to see a rival manager make that mistake. Can you tell I’m down on Cincinnati second basemen? Fade them.
Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox (ADP: 132)
The problem with Nunez is that we don’t know how many plate appearances he’s going to receive. He’s improved every year he’s been in the league and had a fantastic 2017, but the playing opportunity could come down this year. The Red Sox have an absolute wagon of an offense and Nunez could see limited opportunity in that super utility role he always thrives in. Nunez should be a target of yours around pick 160 or 170, but pick 132 is too high for a guy who might not play in more than 100 games.
This prediction is especially relevant in standard leagues with limited roster space. Just be aware that Nunez’s multi-positional eligibility inflates his value. If you draft Sean Doolittle or Ozzie Albies instead of Nunez you’re probably setting yourself up for more success. You should be all over Nunez if you’re in a deep league that utilizes multiple roster spots such as MI and CI, however. This isn’t about his ability, it’s about his role.
Marwin Gonzalez, Astros (ADP: 116)
Don't expect Gonzalez to melt faces again this year. His .244 xBA and .320 xwOBA were well below his actual rates, and his .343 BABIP should be scaring owners away at his current ADP. You should be seeing red flags all over his profile. Scooter Gennett's ADP looks reasonable when compared to Gonzalez's. This might be an unreasonable thought exercise, but take away Gonzalez's multi-positional eligibility and what do you have? All I see is a 29-year old utility player with inflated metrics and an unreasonably high ADP. Pick 116 is ridiculous when you see his metrics profile. Hard pass.
