RADIO
The game of dynasty fantasy football is very much like the stock market. Dynasty players attempt to buy low and sell high on players throughout the year as they try and find the perfect times to buy and sell. In order to do this, it is important to identify when significant changes are made in the market place and determining which reactions are under reacted to, and which are overreacted to.
In this article, I will highlight some of the biggest movers at the wide receiver position and whether or not they are buys or sells.
ADP data for this article is courtesy of Ryan McDowell(@RyanMc23) and Dynasty League Football.
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Stock Rising
Eric Decker, New York Jets January ADP: WR62 April ADP: WR51
Eric Decker has had one of the more curious rises in ADP in the last couple of months, but that doesn’t mean it is unwarranted. Decker has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL throughout his career with 80+ catches for 1000+ receiving yards and 10+ touchdowns in three of four seasons between 2012 and 2015. In 2016, Decker was hit with the injury bug for the first time in his career as he missed 13 games due to hip and rotator cuff injuries. For the 2017 offseason, not much has happened to sway Decker’s value either way. The Jets quarterback situation remains a bit of a mess with Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty to battle Josh McCown for the starting job if the Jets don’t select a quarterback in the NFL draft.
The Jets did release Brandon Marshall, which opens up some targets for Eric Decker, but Decker has had better success in the role of a WR2 to Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Marshall rather than when he was the focal point of the Jets offense in 2014 when he had 74 catches for 962 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, not terrible numbers, but not the numbers he was putting up otherwise from 2012-2015. Normally, when a player's ADP/value spikes without much reason behind it, he becomes a sell for me, but that isn’t the case for Decker. He just went from a must-buy at his January price to a solid buy at his April price. If Decker fully recovers from his injuries and the Jets get any semblance of improvement in quarterback play, Decker should be a safe WR2 play throughout the season.
Projected price: Early-mid 2nd round rookie pick
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers January ADP: WR43 April ADP: WR32
One of the hardest parts of dynasty in the last few seasons has been trying to figure out what to do with high-upside players with drug risks and suspensions. If you have been one to fade these players, you are likely better for it by avoiding buying these players at the expensive peaks they can reach. Bryant reached the second round of dynasty startups in 2016 before he was handed an indefinite suspension from the NFL that ended his 2016 season before it started. As has been the case with other players who have been hit with the indefinite drug suspension (Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon), there have been rumblings of Bryant being reinstated by the NFL, but they haven’t gone further than that.
Bryant is an exciting young wide receiver with high upside and that’s why some are willing to take the risk at his current price tag, but Bryant never playing a game in the NFL is very much still within his range of outcomes. Bryant had an exciting 2015 season with 50 catches for 765 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns in only 11 games, but the off the field concerns aren’t the only risk with Bryant. The Steelers invested a 3rd round NFL draft pick in Sammie Coates after Bryant’s first drug related suspension and they signed Justin Hunter who has disappointed so far in his career, but he could play a similar role for an offense that Bryant plays. Bryant may never play again, and even if he does, it is unlikely he lives up to that WR32 price.
Projected price: Late 1st/Early 2nd round rookie pick
Stock Falling
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals January ADP: WR51 April ADP: WR70
Tyler Boyd was selected 55 overall in the 2nd round of the 2016 NFL draft. With Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu departing in free agency in 2016, Boyd was selected to play opposite of AJ Green and be the 3rd/4th option in the Bengals offense behind AJ Green and Tyler Eifert. Boyd ended up playing third fiddle at the wide receiver position behind Brandon Lafell who caught 64 passes for 862 receiving yards and six touchdowns. With Boyd developing and blocked by Lafell, Boyd was still able to contribute, albeit unexciting, he did have 54 receptions for 603 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Boyd going off the board at WR51 made some sense coming off of the unimpressive rookie campaign, but his dip all the way to WR70 three months later is unwarranted.
The Bengals didn’t do anything in free agency at wide receiver other than re-signing Lafell, who Boyd should be able to surpass as he develops his NFL game in year two and gains more trust from the coaching staff. Many mock drafters have projected the Bengals to select a wide receiver early in the NFL draft, which could be part of the reason for Boyd’s fall, but that is a bit presumptuous for a team with other more pressing needs at other positions. In the event that the Bengals do select a wide receiver early in the NFL draft, that will certainly cap Boyd’s fantasy upside, but it won’t diminish it to the point that he is a non-factor. In anything, it would likely put Boyd in the slot where he succeeded in college as a multi-purpose weapon in the Pitt Panthers offense.
Projected Price: Mid 2nd round rookie pick
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants January ADP: WR26 April ADP: WR37
Unlike Tyler Boyd, Sterling Shepard did impress during his rookie campaign with the Giants. Shepard filled the #2 role opposite of Odell Beckham Jr. nicely as he caught 65 passes for 683 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Shepard only eclipsed 100 receiving yards once during his rookie campaign, but he served as a solid #2 wide receiver with three or more catches in 15 of 16 games. In the offseason, the Giants added Brandon Marshall in free agency which likely points to the main reason for Shepard dropping 11 spots in wide receiver ADP. From a short term lens, I certainly understand the dip, but this is dynasty, and how much should we value the signing of a 33 year old wide receiver that has spent only two seasons with two of his last three teams. I think that the Marshall signing presents a nice buy-low opportunity on a sophomore wide receiver who showed flashes of being a fantasy WR2 in his rookie season.
Projected Price: Late 1st/Early 2nd
