The quarterback position has undergone some drastic changes in the fantasy football landscape over the years. This evolution features the emergence of “cheat-code QB1s”, which are those that sport rushing aptitude unlike any other at their position. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts constitute some of this every-week, matchup-proof starters with ceilings residing in rare territories. They tend to supply very safe weekly floors, as well.
The late-round QB strategy may be going the way of the dodo in this era after veteran pocket passers mostly failed to return value across the board last year. That’s referencing names like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Matt Ryan.
In terms of QB must-haves, let’s not go after the low-hanging fruit and delineate the most obvious choices. Although we will feature some options drafted inside the top five, this article aims to find some selections that can give Allen, Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes a run for their money as fantasy's overall QB1 in the upcoming campaign.
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Lamar Jackson- Baltimore Ravens
Yahoo ADP: 37.3
It feels as if the stars are aligning for Lamar Jackson to enjoy his best season since his 2019 MVP year. The Ravens did precious little to provide weaponry throughout Jackson's tenure as the starting QB. They flat out subtracted Marquise Brown last offseason but Baltimore has finally furnished Jackson with a formidable cast of weapons.
After playing at a subpar pace under offensive coordinator Greg Roman every year, expect new OC Todd Monken to install a far more aggressive and up-tempo system. Jackson’s rushing expertise signifies both a blessing and a curse, as the scrambling signal-caller has gotten hurt late in consecutive campaigns. Assuming the 26-year-old superstar experiences a boost in overall passing opportunity, he could be less prone to injury by spending just a bit more time in the pocket.
Justin Fields- Chicago Bears
Yahoo ADP: 48.0
Justin Fields’ sluggish 2022 start stands as a distant memory at this point. Fields, a Robert Griffin III clone without an early-career torn ACL and LCL, possesses nuclear upside after leading QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.82) a year ago. Chicago improved their abysmal offensive line by spending the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft on right tackle Darnell Wright and adding D.J. Moore on the perimeter to help facilitate Fields’ growth.
Fantasy managers might need Fields to embark on a third-year leap as a thrower to consummate any form of league-winning status. The awful Bears defense should activate the potential for shootout scenarios. The 24-year-old’s big arm coupled with Fields' rushing dominance (top three in most advanced rushing metrics) could concoct a recipe for a fantasy showstopper this season. If Chicago even takes a minor step above their NFL-low 22.4 team pass plays per game from '22, the sky could be the limit for Fields.
Justin Herbert- Los Angeles Chargers
Yahoo ADP: 54.1
A lot of what we said of Jackson can be applied here to Justin Herbert. The 25-year-old should be treated as a priority target in leagues that award six points per passing touchdown with arguably the AFC’s premier three-receiver set. Herbert looks like a painfully obvious rebound candidate after his voluminous passing opportunity (second in NFL with 699 attempts in '22) and productivity (4739 passing yards) yielded only a QB15 finish.
The former first-round pick could be due for a fourth-year catapult in efficiency akin to Ben Roethlisberger’s fourth season when he posted the best TD rate (7.9%) and quarterback rating (104.1) of his illustrious career. Despite mostly playing hurt, Herbert wowed with 53 money throws and the highest pressured completion percentage (57.1%), per PlayerProfiler, of all field generals. It would be shocking to see his pitiful 6.8 yards per attempt and 6.5 air yards per attempt drag into 2023 with new OC Kellen Moore. In four years as the Cowboys OC, Moore's group ranked as the NFL's fourth-best passing offense with 264.4 net yards per game from 2019 to 2022.
Deshaun Watson- Cleveland Browns
Yahoo ADP: 89.8
Perhaps fantasy’s toughest QB to rank, Deshaun Watson looked all kinds of lost on the heels of a distracting offseason and 11-game suspension. It's worth noting two of those games came in the cold month of December in Cleveland, which may have exacerbated things. Watson encouragingly tossed five touchdowns to go with 75 rushing yards across his last two games of the year. The 27-year-old's dual-threat ability remains intact, and Watson should look more comfortable in Year 2 in Kevin Stefanski's system.
It’s easy to forget that Watson led the NFL in passing yards (4823), yards per attempt (8.9), and yards per completion (12.6) in 2020 with Will Fuller essentially acting as his No. 1 wideout. Watson’s gunslinging nature should lend itself to some spiked weeks, but his weekly consistency admittedly remains in question. This is due to the nature of Cleveland’s rush-oriented style with superstar Nick Chubb in the backfield.
Geno Smith- Seattle Seahawks
Yahoo ADP: 117.1
We’re seeing a pattern here with some of these must-haves as it pertains to weapons. Much of what was iterated about Jackson and Herbert can be mirrored to Geno Smith. I’m not sure that Smith is just a more mobile version of ordinary pocket passer Derek Carr. While armed with debatably the NFC’s best three-WR set, Smith is impossible to ignore at his draft range. He is hard to bet against even if the once-perennial second-stringer takes a step back in ‘23.
Smith concerningly led the NFL in danger plays (46) and interceptable (41) passes in ‘22 (PlayerProfiler). However, the Comeback Player of the Year was unbelievably precise otherwise with his NFL-best 69.8% completion rate. Smith’s deep ball accuracy rating (6.6) and under pressure accuracy rating (6.5) ensure his passing ceiling to be one of fantasy’s highest every week. The 32-year-old's 72.5% play-action completion clip should also contribute to this.
Kirk Cousins- Minnesota Vikings
Sure, Kirk Cousins simply has no chance of an overall QB1 season with all the rushing QBs across the landscape, so he's only a must-have in leagues that award six points per passing TD. However, the 35-year-old boasts a level of passing volume few others will experience after Minnesota closed in third with 39.5 pass attempts per game last season. Cousins also piled up 109 red zone attempts. The Vikings defense (or lack thereof) should necessitate continued high throwing volume and create shootout potential.
With Cousins entering his ninth year as a full-time starting QB, I'm drawing comparisons to fellow pocket passer Tony Romo’s ninth season as a starter. Romo assembled a prolific 2014 season when he attained the best completion rate (69.9%), TD rate (7.8%), yards per attempt (8.5), quarterback rating (113.2), and QBR (79.2) of his four-time Pro Bowl career. Something of this sort would certainly be a ceiling outcome for Cousins, but the passing opportunity should be there for him to compete with other rushing QBs in 6-PT pass TD formats.