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Fantasy Basketball Sleepers: Late Round NBA Values

It's the last day of the preseason, which means the last day of drafting for those of you who aren't absolute degens who keep drafting fantasy teams even after the season begins.  RotoBaller is about to begin its in-season coverage with daily waiver wire advice and monthly rankings, but we're here today with one last slate of sleepers for all you last minute drafters.

 

Late Round and Last Minute NBA Sleepers

Arron Afflalo (SG/SF, NYK)

Sasha Vujacic. That’s right, Sasha Vujacic is the only positional competition for Arron Afflalo. Fantasy value is usually based off of two things--talent and opportunity. Fortunately for Arron Afflalo owners, he has both right now. Just in case you forgot, Arron Afflalo averaged 18 pts., 3.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, while shooting 46/42/81 (FG%/3P%/FT%) in his 13’-14’ campaign with the Magic. While I don’t expect Afflalo to duplicate those numbers, I do expect it to be pretty close, and we could even see a little bump to some of his percentages.

On that Magic team, Afflalo was the unquestioned number one option. In New York, I think he is the unquestioned number 2 option, which really fits his skill set much more. While Afflalo can certainly create his own shot, he is much better suited being the number two option (or 3rd or 4th option on a contender) as he’s a killer spot up shooter and generally has great on-court IQ; now let’s just hope Melo can find him open on the perimeter.

I think the cherry on top of Afflalo’s value is that he is completely unaffected by how the Knicks perform. In a best case scenario, they will be competing for one of the last playoff spots in the East, and I can guarantee in that scenario Afflalo will be a big part of the reason they are there. On the flip side, if we see a repeat of last year, or if Carmelo suffers another injury, or generally gives up on the team, Afflalo will be right there to jack up shots and be the number one option for a team very similar talent wise to the Magic he led to 23 wins a few years ago.

Right now Afflalo is injured and may miss the first couple weeks of the season.  As a result, owners may be panicking -- even if you've already drafted he might be on your waiver wire!  Once he gets healthy, Afflalo will be one of the safest options out there, at one of the scarcest positions in fantasy basketball. He has a relatively high floor and a high ceiling, the best combination in fantasy sports.

 

Robin Lopez (C, NYK)

Definitely not the sexiest name in fantasy basketball, but don’t sleep on Robin Lopez as a potential key piece to more than a few winning fantasy rosters this season. Players like Robin Lopez are perfect to round out any roster and add a significant amount of consistency.

I expect Robin Lopez to duplicate his 2013-14 season with the Trailblazers. In that season, Lopez averaged 11.1 pts, 8.5 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, while shooting 55% from the field and 81% from the line. Again, that stat line may not excite a lot of fantasy owners, but not everyone realizes how elusive a 10-10-2 line is for big men, especially for bigs who can shoot free throws like Lopez.

Only 3 big men achieved that last year (Whiteside, Davis, Jordan) and a few others sniffed that line if we lower the blocks down to 1.5 per game (Drummond, Cousins, P. Gasol). You’ll notice a common theme: all of those guys just listed are drafted about 8 rounds before Robin Lopez. If you can draft someone that late that is even in the conversation with some early round picks, you’ve made a smart decision.

Being on this Knicks roster will only help Lopez. His positional competition is now Kevin Seraphin and Kyle O’Quinn (I am a huge fan of O’Quinn, just not for fantasy). In addition, other than Melo, Lopez will be sharing the front court with generally terrible basketball players--Derrick Williams, Lou Amundson, and Kristaps Porzingis. I swear I didn’t make that up. And just like Arron Afflalo, no matter how the Knicks play as a team this year, Lopez will continue to get playing time--he is one of their best potential trade assets if things fall apart and they will want make sure his value stays high.

 

Gerald Green (SG/SF, MIA)

Although Gerald Green was in a great spot for fantasy players in Phoenix, I think he landed with the perfect team and a better opportunity for playing time in Miami.  On the surface, Green has to compete with Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, and Justise Winslow for time and touches. However, we all know the Heat will be trying to make a deep run in the playoffs this year, and to do that they’ll need Deng and Wade healthy and well rested.

To keep their key guys healthy for the playoffs, they’ll need to be very conservative during the regular season. Luckily for Green's fantasy owners, our season’s playoffs are still during the regular season of the NBA--AKA Gerald Green’s playground. He is the epitome of the regular season volume scorer that will get you 25+ points and a few 3’s on those random Tuesdays in Milwaukee.

My point is, Gerald’s Green fantasy value is hinged on the fact that they’ll need him to shoulder a much heavier workload during the regular season, especially in the scoring department. On those nights when Erik Spoelstra smartly decides to sit Deng and Wade against one of the East bottom feeders, sit back and watch Gerald Green light it up.  He’ll need to carry a heavy load if so the Heat's core veterans don't have to.

Gerald Green is a bit of a two trick pony--really only helping owners in Points and 3’s. However, I think he’ll really excel in both this year, while not really hurting you in any other categories. Some nights he might hurt your FG%, but he’s not a turnover machine, and can even chip in a few steals, assist, and rebounds if he feels like putting in the effort that night. For a last round pick, or post-draft FA add, you can't go wrong.

 

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