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There’s a debatable difference between running back handcuffs and Zero RB targets in the realm of fantasy football. Unlike handcuffs, Zero RB picks ideally possess a blend of contingency value and standalone worth, enough to make them starter-worthy in fantasy for Week 1. However, some of these running backs lack a high early-season ceiling.
Although it’s recommended to target some handcuffs based on elite contingency upside near the very end of drafts, the goal of the Zero RB strategy is to stockpile backs that can carve out significant roles on their own accord. Names like Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Warren, and Elijah Mitchell have been excluded in this piece because they lean more heavily toward handcuff potential rather than standalone viability.
A common Zero RB strategy is to wait until the second half of drafts before selecting your first running back, and then load up on late-round fliers. Let’s explore some of the reasons behind taking this plan of action in 2023.
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Using Zero RB in 2023
While it's okay to have an eye towards a certain strategy depending on league format, we could be setting our rosters up for failure by adhering to a specific tactic beforehand. The complexion of each draft is different. If we commit to one specific approach, we might miss out on our ability to capitalize on the potential value picks the draft presents us. Always take advantage of value, especially in the early going.
In order to properly build a team's foundation, it makes sense to first establish a top-25 of players. With this, our initial two picks in a 10-team or 12-team league become almost automatic, dictating the direction of the rest of our draft. If our first or second-round selections land us an RB, we're probably not subscribing to the Zero RB strategy in that draft.
If we truly embrace the Zero RB strategy, we're probably not even looking to take an RB until we select a QB, three or four WRs depending on format, and a TE. The success of the Zero RB strategy is centered around exploiting the lack of true workhorse backs in today’s game. Therefore, we generally tend to avoid this strategy in standard settings where volume is king. It works best in PPR leagues that require three starting WRs.
It's rare to find league-winning WRs on the waiver wire over the course of the season, making it all the more important to snag the top-shelf options early and often in our drafts. A key rule is that WRs are generally more talent-driven while RBs are more volume-oriented. This is why there is so much backfield turnover each year. Injuries play a part in creating opportunity, but betting on talent is always a good idea.
Now that we clarified the Zero RB strategy and how to use it in 2023, let's get into some of this season's strongest Zero RB targets.
Priority Picks For Zero RB in 2023
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
FFPC ADP: 100.6
With Aaron Rodgers gone after 15 years with the Packers, the team might turn to a more run-centered offensive approach than we’ve grown accustomed to in past seasons. A.J. Dillon figures to benefit from this possible identity shift despite playing second fiddle to all-purpose back Aaron Jones.
The 25-year-old Dillon turned in an encouraging Week 1 in 2022 but proceeded to sputter with 10 straight single-digit fantasy efforts. Dillon eventually turned a corner, though, racking up six touchdowns over his last six games. While the power back profiles as an early-down grinder and goal-line weapon, Dillon has been a moderate factor in the passing game with at least 28 catches in each of the past two years. A light 2023 strength of schedule doesn't hurt either.
The former second-round pick sets up as Green Bay’s go-to backfield option in goal-line situations. Dual-threat signal-caller Jordan Love could open up rushing lanes if he proves to be a capable threat on the ground. Dillon’s 11th-round ADP (10-team) looks fairly appetizing in Zero RB setups when you consider his combination of standalone and contingency merit. He shapes up as a format-specific RB2 or RB3 with a pathway to double-digit touches per game even in Jones’ presence.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
ADP: 73.7
David Montgomery slots in on the Lions' depth chart behind first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, leaving the veteran with a lighter potential workload than Gibbs. However, the bigger Montgomery profiles as the stronger bet for scoring opportunities, supplying him with the standalone value we’re seeking in our Zero RB strategy.
If Gibbs gets hurt or simply struggles, Montgomery could swiftly vault up the ranks in a Detroit offense that paved the way for ex-Lion Jamaal Williams to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (17) in 2022.
Montgomery managed at least 67 scrimmage yards per game in each of his first four seasons. The 26-year-old improved as a receiver with ascending catch rates in each campaign. Gibbs is certainly far more talented than Montgomery, but that difference is baked into their respective ADP costs.
While Montgomery’s lack of athleticism may not wow the audience, he's finished in the top 14 at his position in evaded tackles in each season since 2019. Treat him as an RB2 across all formats with exciting contingency upside.
D'Andre Swift/Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles
ADPs: 67.4 (Swift), 105.2 (Penny)
D’Andre Swift signifies one of fantasy's most enticing mid-round choices. He has an RB1 upside in full-PPR leagues after placing third in fantasy points per opportunity last year. The 24-year-old also generated 6.2 yards per touch, the second-highest among RBs in 2022. Swift presents a tantalizingly-high ceiling, but his floor remains questionable with so much backfield competition. Jalen Hurts only targeted RBs 12.2% of the time last year. Still, Swift could be a breakout waiting to happen.
Rashaad Penny is probably the more favorable Zero RB selection on the Eagles with a more forgiving 11th-round price tag. It gives drafters a valuable opportunity to get a piece of a backfield that has the chance to bear fantasy fruit behind an imposing offensive line.
The 27-year-old's floor is terrifyingly low without a receiving role awaiting him, but he figures to lead Philadelphia in carries over the pass-catching Swift. I like Penny as a super dark horse candidate to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns in this high-flying attack.
Alvin Kamara/Jamaal Williams/Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
ADPs: 91.4 (Kamara), 109.5 (Williams), 121.7 (Miller)
I love targeting a Saints backfield that is set up with arguably the league’s weakest strength of schedule. Each of these three ball carriers serves as a value pick, with Alvin Kamara’s possible suspension affecting this situation early on.
If the 28-year-old somehow dodges discipline (which is unlikely), Kamara’s 10th-round ADP will end up looking silly despite an efficiency dip last year. Assuming Kamara is shelved for anywhere between four and eight games, Williams shapes up as the favorite to start Week 1.
The 28-year-old gets a boost in TD-heavy formats with a power style, while Kendre Miller illustrates the wild card of the setup. If Kamara isn’t around, the third-round rookie should have an opportunity to demonstrate his explosiveness after toting 6.2 yards per carry at TCU last season.
However, the youngster is working his way back from January ACL surgery and is slated to miss the start of training camp. This potentially puts the backfield onus on Williams to shoulder the load early on.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 91.3
Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft as their backfield's receiving complement to electrifying bruiser back Kenneth Walker. The rookie should have an immediate role after the Seahawks arguably passed on more pressing roster needs to add Charbonnet to their already equipped offense.
The 22-year-old's receiving equity comes alongside league-winning upside if Walker is injured. Just look at what Walker accomplished last year when Rashaad Penny was lost for the season.
The UCLA product is your model Zero RB pick as a young back with a well-rounded offensive skill set. Charbonnet scampered for a stratospheric seven yards per carry and commanded a 14.5% target share at UCLA last year, per PlayerProfiler. He led the Pac-12 conference in scrimmage yards (1680). Charbonnet shares a similar rookie profile to former Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray, who was an explosive contributor right out of the gates in his rookie season.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
ADP: 99.7
With Brian Robinson holding a similar ADP, Antonio Gibson represents the more desirable choice for Zero RB builds after he posted 1.66 yards per route run last season, which was ninth among RBs. The 25-year-old recorded multiple receptions in 14 of 15 games last year, accumulating the majority of his production through the air. Washington figures to be a bit more passing-oriented with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy after they placed fourth in team run plays per game last year. This works to Gibson's benefit.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 86.7
James Cook represents a popular 2023 breakout candidate as the prospective favorite for touches in the Buffalo backfield. After being virtually dog-housed for the majority of his rookie campaign after a Week 1 lost fumble, the 23-year-old began to percolate in his final six games. However, Cook remained inconsistent. He followed a seemingly 105-yard breakout game with a 15-yard dud the week after.
Even so, Cook led his position with a 12.4% breakaway run rate and ranked third amongst RBs with 6.3 yards per touch. The 2022 second-rounder signifies a promising option for Zero RB builds with elusive back Devin Singletary replaced by power back Damien Harris. Expect Cook to handle the pass-catching responsibilities while Harris sees most of his work in early-down scenarios.
Also Consider: De'Von Achane (108.3), Devin Singletary (145.8), Jerick McKinnon (128.2)
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