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The annual All-Star break offers fantasy baseball managers a great chance to assess and revamp their rosters for the stretch run. With both the fantasy and real-life trade deadlines looming, this stage of the season signifies one of the last key opportunities to make a potentially league-winning swap.
These sell-high picks consider a combination of statistic discrepancies on Statcast as well as prospective upcoming deadline moves. Some of these players probably weren’t even chosen in most spring drafts, which can also indicate a red flag.
I experienced some success in calling out sell-high candidates with this method earlier this year, viewing Logan Allen as such back in late May. The rookie registered a 2.72 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across his initial seven starts (39 2/3 innings pitched). Allen then logged a 4.76 ERA and 1.68 ERA over his next five (22 2/3 IP), leading to a Triple-A demotion on June 29. Let's see if we can find more situations like this using a similar approach.
Top Fantasy Baseball Sell-High Candidates
William Smith - RP, Texas Rangers
Veteran William Smith has served as quite a beneficial fantasy pickup in 2023. The 34-year-old was outperforming presumed closer Jose Leclerc early in the year, enough for manager Bruce Bochy to flat-out declare Smith the Rangers stopper going forward. While Smith has experienced a few hiccups, the southpaw hasn’t wavered much overall with a serviceable 3.74 ERA and 11 saves over 21 2/3 IP since the announcement was made. However, Texas acquired flame-throwing southpaw Aroldis Chapman on June 30.
Since the regression to Smith's expected figures stills presents fine numbers, I’m not as much as concerned with his potential faltering. Chapman's presence, which could start nipping at Smith's heels for save opportunities, is the main cause for worry The former Reliever of the Year is recapturing his dominant version, posing an intimidating threat to Smith’s ninth-inning role. If you scooped Smith up off the scrap heap this past spring, consider flipping him in saves leagues for a less tenuous rest-of-season hold.
Tony Gonsolin - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
After showing a 2.14 ERA and 3.12 xERA as an All-Star in 2022, Tony Gonsolin shapes up as a sell-high candidate once again in ‘23. The 29-year-old's fantasy value is more or less centered around his propensity to rack up wins on an annually strong Dodgers team. Gonsolin leads MLB in win percentage (83.3%) with an outrageous 25-5 record since 2021. The right-hander may be quietly establishing himself as one of the more productive starters in baseball, but it has certainly not all been peachy for him this year.
Gonsolin’s four-pitch arsenal keeps opponents guessing, attributing to an 82nd-percentile chase rate. The lack of strikeout stuff (19% K rate), however, remains a cause for trepidation. In fact, Gonsolin is already starting to flounder a bit with 19 earned runs allowed over his last four starts (21 IP). The waters could remain turbulent and cause a possible capsize here; Los Angeles' post-All-Star break gauntlet of a schedule features series matchups @NYM, @BAL, @TEX, vs. TOR, vs. CIN, @SD, and @ARI.
Marcus Stroman - SP, Chicago Cubs
It tends to be a daring game relying on ground-ball pitchers for sustained fantasy success considering how often they see the ball put in play. Look no further than the 2022 Cy Young hangover of grounder machine Sandy Alcantara in '23. Marcus Stroman identifies as a similar type of hurler, but with far less swing-and-miss potential. The constant movement of the 32-year-old's six-pitch repertoire has yielded a 93rd-percentile barrel rate against him, but there’s really not much else that jumps off the Statcast page.
The cracks in Stroman's proverbial armor could already be starting to form, permitting 12 ER over his last three starts (14 IP). Even so, the righty's start to the year was formidable enough to keep him in top place among quality-start leaders. With an MLB-most 155 ground ball outs, Stroman’s fantasy value may be more closely tied to the smothering defense of middle infielders Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson (heel) than his own merit. Stroman could possibly be displaced from this favorable setup at the trade deadline.
Scott McGough/Miguel Castro - RPs, Arizona Diamondbacks
This one is twofold with Arizona likely acting as a buyer during the upcoming deadline. Bullpen help should certainly be on their list of targets as an area of need. The Diamondbacks have operated something of a closing carousel with Mark Melancon (shoulder) nowhere to be found, first turning out Andrew Chafin in the early goings, then Miguel Castro for a brief spell, and finally Scott McGough most recently. Castro and McGough are already staring at possible negative regression sans deadline moves.
The expiration date on Castro’s value may have already arrived with his last save coming on June 12, but he’s at least thrown well enough lately (2 ER in last 9 IP) to stay in the mix. McGough’s sudden rise in value after capturing six saves since June 11 as the primary D-backs fireman, on the other hand, is what we're looking to capitalize on in the immediacy. Even if Arizona doesn't aim to bolster their pen later this month (unlikely), the closing gig could remain a matchup-based, hot-hand approach going forward.
Wade Miley - SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Journeyman Wade Miley's otherwise inconsistent MLB career has witnessed plenty of stability in Milwaukee. The 36-year-old has enjoyed the most prosperity of his career with the Brewers, attaining a lifetime 2.79 ERA and 1.19 WHIP covering 148 1/3 IP (29 GS) with the Brew Crew spanning across 2018 and '23. But Miley may be overachieving in glaring fashion in his second stint with the club with one of the starkest discrepancies between ERA and xERA of any pitcher this season.
The soft-tossing lefty has reaped the benefits and been bailed out in part by Milwaukee’s top-three defense in runs saved for a deceiving 3.06 ERA alongside a 4.81 xERA. Brice Turang’s recent call-up has shifted the outstanding glove of Owen Miller away from second base, which may not bode well for Miley's sake going forward. Miley has functioned as an adequate early-season streaming option, but it could be time to sever fantasy ties with matchups @CIN, @PHI, vs. ATL, vs. CIN, and @ATL forthcoming post-break for MIL.
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