Edwin Diaz 2021 Outlook: Elite Closer Despite Suspect Walk Rates
4 years agoDespite a miserable first season with the Mets in 2019 and a shaky start to the 2020 season, relief pitcher Edwin Diaz managed to put together an incredible 2020 campaign. While his overall save total of six was quite low, even for a truncated season, his other numbers were simply dominant. Diaz posted a 1.75 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP, supported by an elite xBA of .156 and xwOBA of .234. Even more impressively, Diaz had 50 strikeouts in just 25 2/3 innings pitched. This translated to an absurd strikeout percentage of 45.9%, which was in the top 1% in all of MLB. Diaz also posted the second-highest MLB whiff rate in 2020 with a 48.8% whiff rate (minimum 150 swings), behind only Devin Williams. While Diaz's walk rate of 11.9% was much less impressive, he mitigated damage associated with those walks and overcame his ninth-inning mental issues. Heading into 2021, Diaz remains an elite relief option in all formats who can provide incredible strikeout numbers supported by elite whiff rates. He should post solid ratios including an ERA in the low 2.00s, given his 2.46 xERA in 2020. Diaz should also accumulate a huge number of saves on a competitive Mets team if he maintains the closer role throughout 2021 despite competition from Seth Lugo who may move back to the bullpen. If Diaz can get his BB% closer in line to his career 8.7% rate, there is potential for an even more impressive campaign in 2021. Diaz's current ADP of 81 correctly reflects his potential as one of the elite relievers in the game for 2021.