Byron Buxton 2021 Outlook: Five-Category Threat With Considerable Injury Risk
4 years agoJust as he did in 2019, Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton showed his potential as a breakout star last season but his production was capped due to injuries (shoulder, concussion). Limited to just 39 games and 135 plate appearances, Buxton posted a .254/.267/.577 line to go with an impressive 13 home runs and 27 RBI. Notably, in September, Buxton posted a .290/.313/.710 line with eight HR and 15 RBI, suggesting a continued breakout into 2021. His solid, albeit limited, 2020 performance was supported by elite overall exit velocity, overall barrel rate, and overall hard-hit rate metrics which showed dramatic improvement over his 2019 figures. In addition, though he only managed two stolen bases, his sprint speed of 30.0 ft/sec remained in the top 1% in all of baseball. A legitimate five-category threat, Buxton's main issue has been and continues to be, his inability to remain on the field. Buxton has played fewer than 92 games in all but one of his seasons in the majors. Assuming Buxton can reach 531 PA in 2021 (a dubious assumption), Steamer projects him to post a .266/26/79/74/19 line which would easily outperform his current ADP of 117. As such, Buxton can certainly be a league difference-maker for managers who opt to roster him if he can remain healthy. That said, expectations must be tempered since Buxton has consistently shown no ability to do so.