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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to cover a short, yet fun DFS slate. As is the case on most Thursdays, the featured set of games on both sites is a bit more subdued than on other days. Let's break down my favorite plays for today's main slate!
Six of today’s 13 outings aren’t included in the seven-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Even so, we have some ace-caliber hurlers on the mound to build around with some of MLB’s most prolific offenses in good situations, as well. We’ll see if we can decipher some value out of it all.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 7/6/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Severino, NYY vs. BAL ($6,900 DK, $7,300 FD)
This one’s not for the faint of heart; Severino has an 8.16 ERA over his last six starts (28 2/3 innings pitched) for a downright awful skid. The 29-year-old had a late start to the year with a right lat strain and just hasn’t been able to gain much traction since his initial May starts. Severino’s price remains rightfully discounted under the $7000 threshold on DraftKings. In a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles, Severino makes for a contrarian tournament play with his ownership likely depressed by the dreadful slump.
The right-hander posted a 3.75 ERA against the O’s last season, but only allowed four hits (two home runs) over 12 IP. Severino has specifically held his own against some of Baltimore’s projected batters for this one, besides Anthony Santander. The two-time All-Star’s fastball velocity remains intact from 2022, making a Severino rebound here a possibility. Sevy carries some stark 2023 home-road splits, featuring a 2.55 ERA at Yankee Stadium (17 2/3 IP) as opposed to a ghastly 9.27 ERA (22 1/3 IP) away from there.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. KC ($8,700 DK, $9,200 FD)
As a pivot off Framber Valdez and Nathan Eovaldi in cash games, Bibee is positioned in a nice spot versus the Kansas City Royals in this one. The 24-year-old matches up with poor Jordan Lyles, who has acted as a loss pincushion (1-11 record) in KC this year. It’s a daring game to rely on the Cleveland Guardians offense for run support, but Lyles hasn’t fared particularly well vs. some of the notable Cleveland batters. Better yet, the Guards have treated Bibee fairly well with a 5-2 record on his ledger.
Bibee should be able to take care of the Royals, who were slashing a feeble .228/.290/.368 vs. right-handed pitching before Pablo Lopez shut them out on Wednesday. The rookie has been dependable this season, sacrificing greater than three runs just twice in 12 starts for a 3.46 ERA. Bibee has been excellent at home too, toting a 2.38 ERA across 34 IP at Progressive Field this season. The No. 5 Cleveland prospect looks to keep the good times rolling for a highly favorable draw on Thursday.
Yusei Kikuchi, TOR vs. CHW ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD)
I’m not sure how aggressive I’d be in putting the volatile Kikuchi in cash lineups on Thursday, but it’s certainly an advantageous setup and he comes in at a sizable DK discount. The southpaw has relinquished a lone run across 11 1/3 IP vs. the Chicago White Sox since 2021. Better yet, Kikuchi has mostly induced soft contact against several members of the projected White Sox lineup.
The 32-year-old has permitted two runs or fewer in 11-of-17 starts this campaign, but that’s marred by four other appearances where he let in five runs or greater. Kikuchi’s above-average bat-missing ability makes him a solid tourney pick as Chicago trots out reliever Tanner Banks to start a bullpen game on the other side for this contest. Hopefully, Wednesday's rainout doesn't alter the starting assignments for the nightcap of a doubleheader.
Julio Urias, LAD vs. PIT ($9,400 DK, $8,700 FD)
Urias stands as perhaps my favorite overall pitching play for Thursday’s slate. DK won’t budge much on his cost despite his giving up 11 runs over his last two starts, but the 26-year-old is under $9K on FD, which is quite alluring. This version of Urias should display reduced ownership in GPPs; he even holds a dicey 5.70 ERA in 23 2/3 IP vs. Pittsburgh since 2021. The southpaw has experienced plenty of loud contact against current Pirates batters.
There are probably too many red flags to condone Urias as a cash option despite a seemingly strong on-paper spot at home against the Bucs. A shortened seven-game slate condenses the pickings though, posturing Urias as a convincing option in those contests. The former ERA title holder has kept his average exit velocity down (86.8%) with a spectacular 5.3% walk rate overall despite the struggles. Urias’ fastball spin is still there, too, making the veteran a prime bounce-back candidate in this bout.
Much like Severino, Urias sports some glaring 2023 home-road contrasts. The lefty boasts a 1.99 ERA at Dodger Stadium (31 2/3 IP) vs. an ugly 8.44 ERA away from home soil (26 2/3 IP).
Also consider: Framber Valdez, Nathan Eovaldi
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DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Anthony Santander- OF, BAL vs. Luis Severino ($4,600 DK, $3,400 FD)
Santander mostly hits third in the exciting O's lineup, making the switch-hitter worthy of regular DFS attention. The 28-year-old has some success in the power department vs. Severino, hitting 2-for-6 with two homers in his career against the hurler. I’m perhaps foolishly not pushing Baltimore stacks vs. this iteration of Sevy, but Santander stands out as a compelling one-off choice nonetheless.
Harrison Bader- OF, NYY vs. Kyle Bradish ($3,800 DK, $3,200 FD)
Bader is one of several Bronx Bombers who have gotten to Bradish in the past. The 29-year-old is 4-for-6 with two long balls and a double in his lifetime vs. Bradish. Bader comes in under the $4000 margin on DK and figures to hit in the top half of the Yankees' order. The speedy center fielder displays clear slugging upside in this matchup to go with stolen-base potential.
Myles Straw- OF, CLE vs. Jordan Lyles ($2,500 DK, $2,400 FD)
While the speedy Straw isn’t known for his pop, he’s certainly showcased it when faced with Lyles on the mound. The 28-year-old is a career 3-for-8 with two big flies and a double opposing the righty. Straw represents a bargain-bin play while occupying an unfavorable spot in the lineup, but one with some rare power upside in this particular situation. The 2022 Gold Glover doesn't swing and miss often (99th-percentile whiff rate) and Lyles 16.3% strikeout rate leaves quite to be desired.
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jose Ramirez- 3B, CLE vs. Jordan Lyles ($6,000 DK, $3,800 FD)
There are not too many nights we can't advocate to play Ramirez, but his cost is up to a top-dollar $6K for Thursday’s action. Even so, the perennial All-Star and Silver Slugger is a lifetime 4-for-7 with a double against Lyles. Ramirez is just 1-for-15 over his last four games, so Thursday’s tilt signifies a slump-busting opportunity. The superstar simply doesn't get rung up (9.6% K rate) and Lyles is not regarded for his overpowering stuff.
Gunnar Henderson- 3B/SS, BAL vs. Luis Severino ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
The righty-mashing Henderson is worthy of consideration any time he encounters right-handed pitching considering his platoon splits. The 22-year-old is slashing a powerful .246/.329/.503 with 11 dingers and 28 RBI vs. RHP in 2023. Henderson’s recent dry spell (13-for-58 with one HR over the last 15 games) should keep his ownership in check.
Bo Bichette- SS, TOR vs. Tanner Banks ($5,200 DK, $3,700 FD)
Bichette continues to operate as a hitting machine, and he especially rakes against lefties. The 25-year-old has a wonderful .361 BA with a 1.007 OPS (61 ABs) with three blasts and nine RBI vs. southpaws this year. Toronto could tee off on Banks and get to the ChiSox pen early and Bichette would likely be right in the thick of things as the team's second or third hitter.
Max Muncy- 3B, LAD vs. Johan Oviedo ($5,100 DK, $3,700 FD)
The power-hitting Muncy, much like Henderson, deserves a look any day he deals with RHP. The 32-year-old is slashing a top-heavy .216/.346/.497 (171 ABs) with 14 blasts and 40 RBI against RHP this season. Muncy, not regarded as one to chase pitches, is as good a bet as any slugger to go deep on Thursday against Johan Oviedo, who doesn’t create much chase with his arsenal.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Cleveland Guardians vs. Jordan Lyles
It's not often we can recommend the slug-deficient Guardians offense, but Thursday should be deemed an exception. Lyles (6.68 ERA) does keep the hard hits down, but the 32-year-old has got a number of tough outs to make vs. the contact-oriented Cleveland lineup. Since it's hard to get overly excited about Josh Bell (career 1-for-10 vs. Lyles), build around the top of the order with Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez, and Andres Gimenez. Myles Straw is an option as another leadoff-type hitter in the ninth spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Carlos Carrasco
36-year-old Carlos Carrasco has a tough test vs. an Arizona club scoring over five runs per game this year. Carrasco has been battered for a .299/.369/.598 triple-slash line vs. right-handed batters (117 ABs) this season. That makes just about any RHB worthy of a play in D-Backs stacks, but switch-hitters Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte also hit righties well. Lefty-hitting Corbin Carroll is a great core selection. Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. should be considered, as well.
Also Consider: Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers
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