RADIO
NFL free agency is always an exciting time for fans, especially fans of franchises who love to spend big for veterans ahead of the NFL Draft. When we look back on each signing after one season, numerous players exceeded expectations based on their contracts, but there are usually even more free-agent deals that look awful immediately.
The 2023 free-agent class was full of quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers changing scenes that didn't work out, and a few offensive line signings aged poorly. It's time to analyze last season's free-agent class, and let it be a lesson for teams as the 2024 free-agent period approaches.
To form the list of last year's worst signings, we'll weigh contract value, individual performance, team performance, and more. Let's dive in.
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Derek Carr, QB - New Orleans Saints
Contract: Four years, $150 million ($60 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 3,878 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions
While Derek Carr wasn't nearly as bad in 2023 as many people claim, the Saints signaled they were content with mediocrity and purgatory as soon as he signed on the dotted line to make New Orleans his home. Carr is good enough to keep a starting job in the NFL, but he's proven he cannot elevate a team over his decade-long career.
Jordan Fuller Interception! pic.twitter.com/6KkyqUnCWf
— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhiferNFL) December 22, 2023
Having an elite quarterback is the best-case scenario, but having an unproven one with a small price tag might be better than a middle-of-the-road veteran with a high-dollar salary like Carr. The organization continues to push its cap issues down the road, and its roster is full of aging and overpaid veterans.
The team is stuck with Carr until at least after the 2025 season, so the Saints are unlikely to take swings on rookie quarterbacks in the draft -- which is precisely what they should be doing. Instead, Carr will likely lead them to seven-to-nine-win seasons moving forward.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB - Las Vegas Raiders
Contract: Three years, $72.75 million ($33.75 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 1,205 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions
To be fair, the Raiders built a potential out in Jimmy G's deal after the 2023 season, knowing it could age poorly. However, it went even worse than expected for the former second-round pick. After starting just six games for the Silver and Black, Garoppolo was benched for fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell.
The franchise is likely to catch a break after Garoppolo was served a two-game suspension for violating the league's PED (performance-enhancing drugs) policy. $11.25 million that was owed to Garoppolo in 2024 guarantees can now be voided.
Jimmy Garoppolo has $11.25M in 2024 guarantees that could now void due to his two-game suspension. #Raiders could find themselves off the hook. Would be pretty significant. https://t.co/Q7zy1EOymm
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) February 16, 2024
Still, the signing never made sense, and it ultimately cost former head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler their jobs. The suspension should not take away from the bone-headed acquisition.
Miles Sanders, RB - Carolina Panthers
Contract: Four years, $25 million ($11 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 129 carries, 432 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 27 receptions, and 154 receiving yards
During an offseason in which Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley could not reach long-term deals with their franchises and running backs around the league met to discuss the devaluation of their position, the Carolina Panthers opened the checkbook for Miles Sanders.
No, $25 million over four years isn't a backbreaker. The fact still remains that Sanders was given a contract, making him the 10th-highest-paid running back in the NFL while other organizations utilized a committee approach full of cheap backs.
Without the Philadelphia Eagles' elite offensive line that Sanders was accustomed to, he had the worst season of his career. According to PlayerProfiler data, Sanders ranked 54th in yards per touch (3.8), 65th in true yards per carry (3.2), 42nd in breakaway run rate (3.1%), and 33rd in juke rate (17.3%) among qualified running backs.
By Week 6, the Panthers decided Chuba Hubbard was better than their shiny new free-agent ball-carrier, so Sanders' role diminished mightily. He finished the 2023 season with a 38% opportunity share, good for 42nd among running backs. He found the end zone just once in 2023 after scoring 11 in 2022.
Dan Morgan says that as of now Chuba Hubbard is the lead back going forward. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/MsSbWDB1FI
— Sheena Quick (@Sheena_Marie3) February 27, 2024
Jamaal Williams, RB - New Orleans Saints
Contract: Three years, $12 million ($8.15 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 106 carries, 306 yards, one rushing touchdown, 18 receptions, and 62 receiving yards
Coming off an 18-touchdown season with the Detroit Lions in 2022, the Saints brought in Jamaal Williams on a three-year deal. The deal did not include a potential out after the 2023 campaign. The idea was for Williams to carry the load while Alvin Kamara served his three-game suspension, but he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 and was placed on injured reserve.
In his first year with New Orleans, Williams set career lows in rushing attempts (106), rushing yards (306), yards per carry (2.9), longest rush (17), rushing touchdowns (one), receiving yards (62), and yards per reception (3.4) over 13 games. His only touchdown of the year came on what was supposed to be a kneel-down by Jameis Winston to end the season, but Winston handed it to him, and the Atlanta defense wasn't even ready to defend it.
Take it away Jamaal 😏#Saints | 📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/L8vZjocAzQ
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) January 7, 2024
Williams has never averaged over 4.3 yards per carry in his career, and he's a limited pass-catcher. The Saints were fooled by him playing behind an elite offensive line and in a great Detroit offense the season before, so he's stuck on the roster for at least one more year.
Allen Lazard, WR - New York Jets
Contract: Four years, $44 million ($22 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 23 receptions, 311 yards, and one touchdown
The signing of Allen Lazard was likely heavily influenced by trying to lure Aaron Rodgers, but it doesn't give the New York Jets a pass. Despite playing with Rodgers for five seasons in Green Bay, Lazard had surpassed 550 yards and caught more than 40 passes just once before signing with New York.
His $44 million contract was the most money any wide receiver was given in last year's free agency, and his $11 million salary ranked only behind DeAndre Hopkins ($13 million) and Odell Beckham Jr. ($15 million).
Jets sign Allen Lazard to $44 million deal in Aaron Rodgers push https://t.co/MqF8oOzCUn pic.twitter.com/hqmzwML59L
— New York Post (@nypost) March 14, 2023
What did he deliver for New York? A whole lot of nothing. The Iowa State alum ranked 81st in target share (10.6%), 85th in yards per target (6.3), 100th in true catch rate (67.6), 95th in target separation (1.14), and 92nd in route win rate (40.7%) among PlayerProfiler qualified wideouts. He never caught more than three passes in a game, and while it's easy to blame Zach Wilson, Lazard was outperformed by tight end Tyler Conklin and running back Breece Hall as a receiver.
The signing was a disaster, and the team desperately needs to upgrade its WR2 spot behind Garrett Wilson. Lazard is a fine WR3 or WR4, but he's overpaid.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR - New England Patriots
Contract: Three years, $25.5 million ($16 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 29 receptions, 260 yards, and one touchdown
Instead of bringing back Jakobi Meyers, Bill Belichick decided to bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster during what would prove to be his last offseason with the Patriots. Smith-Schuster was coming off a Super Bowl win with the Kansas City Chiefs, and he hauled in 78 passes for 933 yards and three touchdowns with Patrick Mahomes. Outside of his 1,400-yard season in 2018, the lone season with the Chiefs was the best of his career.
The signing of Smith-Schuster for $8.5 million per year didn't look horrible when it happened, but in hindsight, it was a significant mistake. He played in just 11 games for the Pats, going under 40 yards in nine contests. He had seven games of 11 yards or fewer. Ultimately, he finished the year behind Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, and Ezekiel Elliott in receiving yards, and Mike Gesicki, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Pharaoh Brown were each within 52 yards of matching his total.
Whether it be injuries or playing with struggling quarterbacks, Smith-Schuster has not been able to rekindle his elite season from 2018. Now, New England must stick with him for at least one more season if they don't want to eat roughly $12 million in dead cap.
Andre Dillard, OT - Tennessee Titans
Contract: Three years, $29 million ($10 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 51.0 PPF grade, 12 sacks allowed
Andre Dillard, a 2019 first-round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles, got a second chance at a starting gig in Tennessee last offseason. He signed a respectable deal considering he was a backup for a few seasons before he became a free agent, but he was arguably the worst left tackle in the NFL last year.
PFF credited Dillard with giving up the most sacks among tackles (12), despite the 28-year-old playing the 56th-most snaps at the position (562) due to his benching. Needless to say, he couldn't have played much worse -- if at all.
Myles Garrett is now up to 3.5 sacks.
Former Eagle Andre Dillard is not having a good day. pic.twitter.com/LLc3xMtNAH
— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) September 24, 2023
Dillard's disastrous play in 2023 didn't help the cause of an aging Ryan Tannehill or rookie Will Levis, and there's a good chance Tennessee will eat the $7.8 million in dead cap resulting in releasing him.
Jawaan Taylor, OT - Kansas City Chiefs
Contract: Four years, $80 million ($40 million guaranteed at signing)
2023 Season Stats: 52.0 PFF grade, five sacks allowed, league-high 20 accepted penalties
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, so it's hard to poke holes in anything they did during the offseason. However, former Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor was given a massive contract, and he caused problems for the offense all season long. He was graded poorly by PFF, and false starts, holdings, and lining up incorrectly caused him to be penalized at a league-high rate.
total offensive penalty yardage (by player)
115 - Jawaan Taylor (OL - KC)
96 - John Simpson (OL - BAL)
90 - Ronnie Stanley (OL - BAL)
84 - Mekhi Becton (OL - NYJ)
81 - Darnell Wright (OL - CHI)
80 - Tyler Smith (OL - DAL)
73 - Luke Goedeke (OL - TB)
70 - Michael Pittman (WR -…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 17, 2024
He'll likely be a serviceable tackle in future seasons given Patrick Mahomes' ability to evade pressure and sacks, but he did not live up to his $20 million salary in 2023.
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