RADIO
Catch rate is statistic indicative of how sure-handed and trustworthy a pass catcher may be. High reception percentages generally result in high floors in the world of fantasy. I don’t need to tell you about the pristine catch clips of Pro Bowl-caliber slot receivers like Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Amon-Ra St. Brown; you already know they’re highly efficient. There are some hidden names here, however, who served as poised receiving options.
If you had to guess who led the NFL in reception rate in 2022, I bet you wouldn’t pick former seventh-round pick Richie James, who managed to accomplish this feat out of a group of qualifiers. In fact, the top three in this category also featured 2020 sixth-rounder Isaiah Hodgins (we’ll see him later), and a once undrafted player, Greg Dortch. None of which exactly represent household names, so sometimes a high catch rate doesn’t always entail a prolific fantasy option.
Defensive pass interference is a more fickle stat that is virtually impossible to factor into projections. The data can still provide us hints about the most intimidating weapons on the gridiron. We shouldn’t declare a player a bust based on this information; some of the best receivers, like Mike Williams in 2022, can go an entire season without drawing a single DPI. Let’s explore how we should treat some of the wideouts with the strongest catch rates, as well as those who gained the most penalty yardage.
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JuJu Smith-Schuster- New England Patriots (112.6 FFPC ADP)
New England Patriots wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster concluded the 2022 season respectably as the overall WR35 in full-PPR fantasy points per game. He battled with inconsistency while playing alongside target vacuum Travis Kelce, as Smith-Schuster recorded a weekly finish in the top eight of his position in only 4-of-16 games. The former Steeler certainly benefitted from catching the passes of NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Smith-Schuster was granted both the third-highest catchable target rate and target accuracy of all wide receivers, per PlayerProfiler. Out of 41 wide receivers who were issued at least 88 targets, Smith-Schuster was outstandingly the only player to bring in over 80% of his targets. The composed pass catcher also led the league with a sparkling 93.3% catch rate in the short depth of the field among 91 wideouts.
JuJu posted the second-highest catch percentage (75.9%) against man coverage, corresponding with PFF’s third-best drop grade against this scheme out of 101 wide receiver candidates. The former Pro Bowler's catch clip (83.1%) versus zone coverage was situated in the top 10 as well.
The slot man's role in Kansas City called for a ceiling-erasing three deep targets last year. Smith-Schuster's few spiked weeks were manufactured mostly in part by his catch-and-run ability; he logged fewer air yards than receiving yards in each of five contests where the receiver hurdled the 15-fantasy-point barrier. His ball-carrying skills helped sit him sixth among wide receivers in yards after the catch. JuJu converted five targets into a ridiculously efficient 113 yards and one touchdown in Week 6 against the Bills.
Smith-Schuster, who is entering his age-27 season now as a Patriot, garners an appetizing 12th-round FFPC ADP. He bounced back with his strongest yards-per-reception average (12.0) since 2019. The departure of Jakobi Meyers, who accounted for almost a third of the percentage of New England’s receiving yards and touchdowns last year, leaves a lot of production to swallow up. Smith-Schuster is a reasonable WR2/3 bet in full-PPR formats with a prospective uptick in targets as the number-one receiving option for his new club.
Isaiah Hodgins- New York Giants (191.9 FFPC ADP)
New York Giants wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins represents one of the few legitimate perimeter threats on an offense chock full of slot weapons. The second-year wideout was a late-season hero, hitting pay dirt in five-of-six contests from Weeks 13 to 17 and also including New York’s Wild Card game. He demonstrated a decent floor, hauling in at least four receptions in each outing which was good for a bountiful 16.8 full-PPR fantasy points per game across this span.
The acrobatic receiver efficiently finished seventh at his position in fantasy points per target (2.13) and he ranked first in win rate (56.5%) versus man coverage, according to PlayerProfiler. His knack for losing defenders was conducive to his notching the best catch rate (76.9%) against this scheme considering 84 eligible wide receivers. Quarterback Daniel Jones was first in PlayerProfiler’s true completion percentage metric, making it possible Hodgins maintains a semblance of this dominance.
Hodgins recorded the second-highest overall catch rate (82.2%) among 103 possible wide receivers. He was marked with the ninth-best PFF drop grade and secured the sixth-strongest contested catch rate (66.7%) under this criteria. The former Bill also garnered the third-highest passer rating (123.3) when targeted as well.
Hodgins' reception percentage in the short depth of the field (85.7%) was the sixth-greatest figure only regarding those with at least 18 targets in this area. It looks like he was in the conversation with some pretty formidable company in this respect. The reliable pass catcher logged the second-highest passer rating (131.5) when targeted here.
The 24-year-old revelation will have every opportunity to build on his strong finish as New York’s potential number-one wide receiver in 2023. Even under the assumption that the Giants add more depth to their receiving corps throughout the offseason, Hodgins' bust potential won’t leave much of a mark on fantasy rosters. The former sixth-round pick's ADP amounts to a borderline selection at the end of deeper 12-team drafts, tagged with a bargain-bin price on FFPC.
Evan Engram- Jacksonville Jaguars (70.9 FFPC ADP)
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram is a freak athlete and a former first-round pick by the Giants. He had a couple of promising seasons before floundering with New York in 2021 while stuck in the offense of out-of-touch Jason Garrett, a coordinator who was unable to get the most out of the explosive pass catcher. The Jaguars proved able to unlock Engram’s talent once again in 2022, though, enough so for the versatile tight end to amass a career high in catches and receiving yards.
Engram was a boom-or-bust fantasy TE1 option, like many at his position, for the first two-thirds of the year. He eventually exploded into a league-winning pickup by averaging 21.3 FFPG from Weeks 12 to 16. The 28-year-old may have cost fantasy managers their championships with flops in the final two weeks, but not before the veteran seized the overall TE5 mantle.
The field stretcher managed to transcend Kelce with the highest catch rate (75.3%) in the league among tight ends. This rate of success was even able to net Engram the sixth-best honors among all pass catchers in this department under the requirement of at least 88 targets. It's worth noting he registered the seventh-highest catch rate of 31 tight ends when going against man coverage.
Engram is dangerous with the ball in his hands, coming fifth of all relevant tight ends in yards after catch per reception (6.3). He was also positioned sixth at his position in yards per route run (1.85) against man coverage. The one-time Pro Bowler might finally be poised for a total breakout in 2023, signifying a potential steal at his eighth-round ADP on FFPC. Engram was franchise tagged by Jacksonville this offseason, so he likely aims for a major pay day next season.
Marquise Brown- Arizona Cardinals (71.6 FFPC ADP)
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown had momentum towards a wonderful 2022 curtailed by a Week 6 foot fracture that cost him five games. The 25-year-old put forth 7.2 catches for 80.8 yards per game on a hefty average of 10.7 targets over the season’s initial six games. All of those contests came without three-time All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins, who could be on the move before 2023 commences.
Keep an eye on that development, as Brown’s eighth-round ADP could significantly amplify if the rebuilding Cardinals succumb to the trade desires of Hopkins. The speedy playmaker, Brown, finished second in the league with 31 yards per DPI infraction after drawing four of them in 2022. On a team full of slot weapons, the former first-round pick would command the attention of defensive backs on the perimeter even more if Hopkins ends up gone.
Joshua Palmer- Los Angeles Chargers (178.5 FFPC ADP)
A mere late-round pick in 12-team leagues, Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer might be one of the biggest fantasy sleepers based on DPI penalties drawn in 2022. He notably drew five DPI, tied for the most in the league, for an average of 20.2 yards per foul. The Tennessee product's productivity from his second season is surely inflated by Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missing various intervals of time last year, but Palmer clearly has a tendency to induce contact.
The target volume won’t be there for Palmer when these two stars are healthy, but he is a legitimate threat to create separation. He reached the sixth-highest average in yards between him and his defender when the pass arrived in 2022, per PlayerProfiler. The 24-year-old owns convincing contingency upside as well, averaging 13 full-PPR FFPG in his career without Mike Williams, and 12.3 without Keenan Allen. Palmer also achieved a robust 73.5% catch rate despite functioning mostly as a deep threat.
Michael Gallup- Dallas Cowboys (237.6 FFPC ADP)
A super deep-league sleeper now, Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup is only getting attention at the end of the 16-team leagues on FFPC. The 27-year-old at least still demanded the attention of cornerbacks and safeties last year, leading the NFL in average yards per DPI with a staggering 38.7 figure spanning over three penalties. He likely relinquishes number-two wideout duties, though, to the incoming Brandin Cooks in 2023.
After tearing his ACL late in the 2021 campaign, Gallup never gained traction last year, being usurped in the offense by the now-gone Dalton Schultz and even former seventh-rounder Noah Brown at times. Gallup has not been able to build on his 2019 breakout when he was fantasy's overall WR17. He’s slipped with a drastic descent in yards per catch averages in each year since. The forgotten former third-rounder is a desperado’s post-hype sleeper as well as a theoretical handcuff to CeeDee Lamb.
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