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At one time, slot receivers were regarded primarily as high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy propositions for their relatively low average depths of target. The position has evolved in a big way over the years, however, now capable of yielding some of the most prosperous fantasy outputs in the entire game. Look no further than Cooper Kupp’s amazing receiving triple crown accomplishment in 2021, most of which derived from the slot position.
The slot receiver is longer mainly regarded as a smaller playmaker who relies on route-running knowledge and shiftiness; archetypes of this playstyle such as Wes Welker and Julian Edelman may come to mind under this antiquated characterization. Even tall, big-bodied weapons like Allen Lazard and Chase Claypool saw nearly half of their targets stem from the slot in 2022. The term “power slot” has been coined in recent times to describe these types of physical players who help create mismatches against shorter defenders.
The slot concept represents a potential fantasy gold mine, affording receivers with high-percentage targets which increase their likelihood of meeting expectations each week. Combine that notion with the sheer receiving prowess of players like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams, and that makes a recipe for fantasy goodness. Let’s analyze some of the 17 most productive weapons out of the slot this season, and what it means for the upcoming year.
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Christian Kirk- Jacksonville Jaguars (65.2 FFPC ADP)
The Jacksonville Jaguars made wide receiver Christian Kirk one of the highest paid at his position during the 2022 offseason. The former Cardinal had never recorded a 1000-yard season in any of his initial four years with Arizona, so many NFL fans may have scoffed at the signing originally. Kirk proceeded to enjoy a prolific, career-best season in the first year with his new squad, however, finishing as fantasy’s overall WR12 in full-PPR scoring.
Kirk profiled weekly as a very consistent WR2 option, logging at least 45 receiving yards or a touchdown in 12 of his first 14 games with Jacksonville. The otherwise reliable fantasy play may have disappointed managers down the stretch with untimely duds in Weeks 16 and 17. He ended the year on a high note to make up for it, totaling at least 20 fantasy points in each of his final three games, including the playoffs.
Kirk concluded the year second among all wide receivers in targets (92), receiving yards (823), and first downs (40) from the slot. The chain mover placed third in receptions (61) and tied for first in touchdowns (4) out of the slot as well. Finally, Kirk closed as fourth in yards after the catch (289) while running routes in the slot. It’s worth mentioning that the slot receiver was rather effective as a deep threat, too, achieving a strong 58% catch rate (19 targets) on passes that traveled 20 or more yards down the field.
The general consensus circling the fantasy industry appears to be that Kirk’s productivity is set to decline with the forthcoming return of All-Pro-caliber wideout Calvin Ridley from suspension. While the former Falcon’s comeback is bound to detract from some of Kirk’s opportunity share, it also injects a dynamic playmaking presence into the Jaguars' offense. This supposition could smoothly complement Kirk, further opening up the short and intermediate levels of the field where the 26-year-old slot man particularly thrives.
The former second-round pick is just entering his prime, as Kirk is about to embark on his age-27 season. In 2022, Kirk represented rising star Trevor Lawrence’s preferred weapon in the red zone, gathering 22 looks inside the 20-yard line, which was fifth among all wide receivers. Kirk showed off his rapport with the signal-caller during a monster day back in Week 10 against the Chiefs, heavily targeted early and often.
Kirk holds a reasonable ADP in the middle of round seven in spring FFPC drafts. He is being overlooked under the unsettled assumption that the incoming Ridley immediately usurps him as the top target in Jacksonville's offense. All of Kirk’s targets, receptions, receiving yards, and air yards have increased in each of the last three campaigns. He should certainly have an edge over Ridley in chemistry with Lawrence entering 2023.
Jakobi Meyers- Las Vegas Raiders (121.0 FFPC ADP)
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers’ fit in his new group seems like a questionable one. He now teams up with Hunter Renfrow, the league leader in slot snap percentage among qualifiers in 2022. On the surface, that makes Meyers come off as a bust candidate with a redundant skill set to the slot aficionado, Renfrow. Meyers has admittedly logged a slot snap rate near 65% over his four-year New England career, and most of his production has stemmed from that position.
Meyers managed to haul in a whopping 135 catches before hitting pay dirt for the very first time back in 2021. He has often lacked the spiked-week potential of fellow fantasy-relevant WR3 choices due to this severe drought in touchdown scoring. By 2022, however, the once undrafted receiver developed into a well-rounded weapon, as his production was evenly spread out across each part of the field. Out of Meyers’ 803 yards, 279 of them came from 1-9 yards out, 247 from 10-19 yards, and 241 from 20+ yards.
It seems concerning that Meyers resulted last in receptions (35) from the slot out of the 17 wide receivers who tallied at least 48 targets from this scheme in 2022. His catch rate (68.6%) while functioning from the slot was the second-lowest clip among these players. Staying with this criteria, the 26-year-old promisingly, however, wound up as fourth in yards per reception (13.5) out of the slot. Meyers’ average depth of target (10.8) from this spot was also the third-highest mark of these 17 players.
New England’s most productive receiver had a superior PFF pass-route grade, abbreviated as RECV in the table above, from the medium and deep depths of the field to that of the short area. This is very interesting for Meyers' 2023 fantasy outlook as he ventures onto the outside more frequently with the Raiders. Quarterbacks had a robust passer rating of 117.1 when targeting Meyers in 2022. This passer rating figure increased as Meyers was targeted further down the field and three of his six touchdowns came on deep passes.
Meyers flashed enough upside as a vertical threat to potentially launch into every-week WR2 territory on a Las Vegas team that allowed the fifth-most total yards per game in 2022. Meyers has also upped the amount of yards after the catch in each year he's played. The soon-to-be fifth-year player still has room to grow in the touchdown-scoring aspect, owning just a 3.3% career touchdown rate. Starting his age-27 season, Meyers might be ready to break out in 2023 while holding a cheap 13th-round ADP on FFPC.
K.J. Osborn- Minnesota Vikings (128.6 FFPC ADP)
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn represents the team’s presumed new number-two wideout for 2023. The front office elected to release longtime slot man Adam Thielen as a cost-cutting measure this offseason. His departure frees up 107 targets and, more importantly, an enormous 621 routes run from 2022. The latter figure ranked second in the league in that category. Osborn’s best season yet could be imminent, as he was already fifth in the NFL in slot snaps (486) with Thielen still in the lineup in 2022.
Osborn has presented a knack for finding the end zone in his career thus far, compiling 12 touchdowns on 110 career catches, good for a rapid 10.9% touchdown rate. He has also netted three scores in four career games without Thielen. Osborn was an integral part of Minnesota’s historic comeback during Week 15 against the Colts, hanging a massive 10-catch, 157-yard line on their secondary over 16 targets.
The 25-year-old explosively registered 5.9 yards after catch per reception from the slot. This number ranked third among those in this facet based on a minimum of 48 slot targets. When targeted while running routes from this position, the young pass catcher outstandingly notched the highest-overall passer rating (131.2) under this baseline. Osborn also did not commit a single dropped pass when operating from the slot. Finally, he tied for the league lead with four end zone visits out of the slot during 2022.
Minnesota surrendered nearly 30 points per game over their final nine outings. Osborn’s already rising fantasy upside could be further catalyzed if their lack of defensive resistance bleeds over into 2023. The Vikings were also second in total passing yards last year. The 2020 fifth-rounder attaining his first 1000-yard campaign firmly lies within his range of potential outcomes, so I’m not overly concerned that the caveat of potential negative touchdown regression would ruin Osborn's appeal.
Osborn is well worth a flier in hopes of a potential full-on breakout in 2023. Just like Meyers, he carries an affordable 13th-round ADP on FFPC. His price tag has become more expensive with Thielen departed, but I’m still higher than the consensus regarding Osborn’s cost at this time. He may have recently participated in a mostly nondescript season as fantasy's overall WR45, but Osborn capped it off in a big way by collecting 16.1 fantasy points per game in full-PPR scoring across his final six contests, including the postseason.
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