RADIO
It's been a rough year for the San Antonio Spurs.
The Gregg Popovich-coached squad has won just 46.2 percent of their games this season, the worst mark since Popovich's first season in San Antonio. And while DeMar DeRozan hasn't led them into the playoff fight like many thought he would, his recent numbers -- including three 30 point games in his last four outings -- suggest that he could help lead your fantasy team into the playoff fight.
Let's take a dive into some of DeRozan's advanced stats and film and talk about why he's a rising fantasy asset.
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DeMar DeRozan: Deep Dive
Background Information
At this point, the things we know about DeMar DeRozan probably add up to a pretty accurate picture of who DeMar DeRozan is.
DeMar DeRozan can't shoot from three. He's hitting 17.6 percent from deep on 1.3 attempts per game. Aside from last year, when he took 3.6 per game, DeRozan has never really been a guy who fires from deep. He's also been efficient inside the arc, though, and is hitting over 48 percent from two for the third year in a row. He hits in the mid/upper 80s from the free throw line. He's...basically the DeMar DeRozan we've always known.
But let's dig a little deeper.
His assist percentage of 28.6 is a career best. Without a top tier point guard beside him, DeRozan has to take on more of the playmaking ability, and while he hasn't really cut down on his turnovers this year, the fact just 0.4 more than last year while taking on a larger role is a good sign.
DeRozan is also grabbing 15.6 percent of defensive rebounds when he's on the floor, five percent higher than last season. That's equaled a jump from 3.9 rebounds per game up to 5.7 per game.
DeRozan is in the midst of one of his best NBA seasons from an individual perspectives, even if the team around him is struggling to keep up. What's that look like on tape, though? Is he getting good shots? Is the Spurs system working for him? Let's look at some recent videos.
Game Tape
Let's look at some video from DeRozan's recent games.
Here he is against the Lakers on Friday. What we want to see from DeRozan is him getting the ball close to the basket -- I don't want to see contested long jumpers or three-pointers. If he can get good shots, things are looking good for him.
So, his first score of the game. DeRozan brings the ball up the court, dribbles inside the arc, and then goes about backing down Josh Hart before hitting the turnaround jumper in the paint. This checks all of my yes, DeMar DeRozan is making good decisions boxes.
Here's one where DeRozan is playing off the ball, with Bryn Forbes initiating things offensively and DeRozan setting a pick here that helps him get open at the top of the arc. The DeRozan pick initially helps switch Josh Hart onto Forbes while also taking Lonzo Ball away from the play, and it enables DeRozan to get the ball with space in front of him. Josh "Bless His Heart" Hart, in this situation, sticks with DeRozan as DeRozan drives in for the lay-up, but the sticking with him part was more of a formality, as it's pretty clear from the start here that DeRozan has the room to get the shot he wants right at the bucket.
DeRozan picks on Josh Hart a lot early in this game, and the inability to stop him might be part of why the Lakers just started fouling DeRozan on his shot attempts, leading to 18 free throw attempts in this one. DeRozan's ability to get to the free throw line is an underrated part of his big scoring nights, and also a reason why he struggles on some nights. DeRozan has three games this year with 30 or more points, and he's taken at least eight free throws in seven of those. Meanwhile, he's also posted games with five or fewer free throws on 10 occasions, and five of his seven games with under 20 points came in those games. Basically, DeRozan is better in games where he's more aggressive and draws fouls.
So, for example:
DeRozan doesn't score here, but by driving the ball and being aggressive, he gets fouled by Kyle Kuzma and ends up on the line. A driving DeMar DeRozan is a good DeMar DeRozan.
Let's also take a look at some clips from Wednesday's meeting with...oh, the Lakers again. (Side note: there are a lot of these games this year where teams play twice in a row, right? Like...it feels like more than usual, though that's probably just anecdotal evidence and recency bias coming into play when I make that statement.)
Here's DeRozan getting to the basket with ease again, but this time it's with Brandon Ingram and JaVale McGee on him. Over the course of these two games, the Lakers threw a lot of guys at DeRozan defensively, and the result was a pair of 30-point games for the former Raptor.
One last one clip here:
DeRozan never slows down here. The whole way, he's like I see this opening and I will take it, and he drives in to take the short floater. Sure, this basket doesn't count without a goaltend that comes after the ball initially hits the rim, but DeRozan still got himself a good shot and put the ball in a position for points to happen.
The Fantasy Impact
DeRozan is doing a lot of what I thought DeRozan would be doing when put on a team where he is the team's backcourt. Some of his less than stellar showing earlier in the year caught me off guard, honestly, but over the past week we're seeing a more aggressive DeRozan. Through the first 20 games of the season, he was taking 6.4 free throws per game; since then, he's up to 8.5. To me, that's a good indicator that DeRozan is employing a style of play that should lead to continued success.
Look, the Spurs don't really have much outside of DeRozan. LaMarcus Aldridge has never shot a worse field goal percentage across a full season than the one he sports right now. Rudy Gay is nice to have as a third option, but that's really all he is now. San Antonio's bench no longer has a guy like Manu Ginobili to come in and jack up shots. This is, for better or worse, DeMar DeRozan's team right now, and his recent play suggests that the Spurs are leaning in on that. Over the past five games, he has a usage rate of 34.9; before that, it was 29.1.
And if this really is the new way things will look for the Spurs, with DeRozan attacking, getting to the hoop, and getting either good shots or free throws from it, fantasy owners should be happy. DeRozan can consistently score in the high-20s with that kind of play, and he's a strong enough free throw shooter to help you there as well while still providing assists and rebounds and, hopefully, not attempting threes that will hurt his strong field goal percentage. DeRozan has taken just two three-pointers in the last six games.
Baller Move: This is probably a bad time to try to trade for DeRozan as he comes off this hot streak, but I also think it would be a bad time to trade him away. He should have a solid place in your lineups, and if the right offer comes along then move him, but don't get fooled into dealing him just because you think he's going to decline as the season rolls along. The 2016-2017 version of DeMar DeRozan is in play here, and that's a version that all fantasy owners (unless you're building a team where you can't afford a player who doesn't hit from deep) should want.
