RADIO
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season. We kick this week off with a fun game in Mile High Stadium between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. The Chiefs are road favorites, even though they've struggled in each of their last two games. The Broncos on the other hand, haven't allowed a passing touchdown since September.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks in FanDuel for Thursday Night Football on October 17, 2019 (Week 7). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @VarneyDFS and fire away. Now let's break this slate down and make some cash. Good luck RotoBallers!
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DFS Quarterbacks - Week 7 Picks
Patrick Mahomes - KC (FanDuel $16,000 / DraftKings $12,000)
The Chiefs go into Mile High Stadium as three-point favorites, with Patrick Mahomes playing the worst football we've seen in two seasons. After throwing just four touchdowns over the last three weeks, he faces off with a defense at home that's allowed just 400 yards and no touchdowns over the last two weeks. They have the pass rush to get to Mahomes, and the secondary can handle Kelce and Hill with Watkins out. This game will go one of two ways. Kansas City wants a high-scoring affair and if Mahomes can have success, look for these offenses to go back and forth. If the Denver defense can slow down the Chiefs and allow the Broncos to get a lead, they'll keep it on the ground as much as possible to keep Mahomes off the field. I still think this Broncos Defense is a bit overblown and I expect Mahomes to come out and have a huge night. On FanDuel, he's a great captain. On DraftKings, I'd rather pay down at CPT and put together a balanced lineup with Mahomes at FLEX.
Joe Flacco - DEN (FanDuel $14,000 / DraftKings $8,000)
Like I said, this game can go two very different ways. If Mahomes comes out slinging, Flacco will be forced to match him and this Chiefs secondary is exploitable. Flacco isn’t the most talented on his own, but he has viable weapons that will do the work for him. He’s also been a lot better at home, throwing for 292 yards against the Bears and 300+ versus the Jags. The Chiefs are by far the worst pass defense they’ve faced to this point and it fair to expect at least 250 yards out of Flacco. I wouldn’t play him at captain at all, as the upside is limited and if he throws more than two touchdowns, Courtland Sutton is the guy you’ll want at captain.
DFS Running Backs - Week 7 Picks
LeSean McCoy - KC (FanDuel $11,000 / DraftKings $8,800)
I’m going to go out on a limb here and recommend McCoy over Lindsay. They are both great plays and it’s extremely close, but I think McCoy sees the volume tonight and the production is unquestioned when there. He’s the clear number one back at this point, with him being there only one to see multiple carries last week. The Broncos are far worse against the run than the pass, and also allow the ninth-most receptions to opposing running backs. With KC a three-point favorite on the road, McCoy checks a lot of boxes that you want out of a running back. He’s also cheaper than Lindsay and will be lesser owned. McCoy is a guy I love as a captain.
Phillip Lindsay - DEN (FanDuel $13,500 / DraftKings $6,200)
Lindsay is going to be a popular pick tonight and rightfully so. The Broncos want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible and Lindsay has been phenomenal recently. The only issue is the timeshare with Royce Freeman, who works into the passing game as well. With that said, Lindsay has consistently seen 75% of the work and he’s been over 15 carries in three of the last four games. To put it frankly, the Chiefs suck against the run. Just last week they allowed 116 yards and a touchdown to a back they got rid of a few weeks ago in Carlos Hyde. Lindsay should have plenty of success when given the ball and he’s a viable caption option as well. If raw points are the argument, give me Lindsay. With price and ownership considered, McCoy has the edge.
Royce Freeman - DEN (FanDuel $8,000 / DraftKings $6,000)
Freeman has his niche carved out in this offense, so we know the touches will be there. They don’t want Phillip Lindsay to see 25+ hits a game, and Freeman has provided a good enough replacement to let them do it without taking much of a hit. He's been over 10 carries in all but one game, and has caught 21 balls for 145 yards. All the match-up facts that went for Lindsay go for Lindsay as well, and he also gets split out wide some. If he is able to find the end zone tonight, he’s cheap enough on both sites to more than pay his salary off.
DFS Wide Receivers - Week 7 Picks
Courtland Sutton - DEN (FanDuel $12,000 / DraftKings $7,600)
It seems crazy to not have a Chiefs WR as the top recommendation, but you get a good discount with Courtland Sutton and the production has been undeniable. He leads the entire league in air yards, and has seen a ton of red-zone looks. Flacco is not only looking towards Sutton to stretch the field, but to finish the deal as well. This Chiefs secondary doesn’t have anyone that will shut down Sutton, and we’ve already seen this defense struggle with tall receivers early in the season. Sutton is affordable and a guy I’ll have 100% exposure to. He’s a GPP captain at best and fits best as a flex.
Tyreek Hill - KC (FanDuel $14,500 / DraftKings $11,200)
Tyreek Hill saw limited snaps last week and still caught 10 balls and two touchdowns. His usage will go up tonight, and this offense is still missing Sammy Watkins. They’re also lockdown against tight ends. I don’t expect Kelce to fit that mold, but I also don’t think he has a huge game. It should push even more targets towards Hill, who could easily see 15 tonight. His price is high, but I’ll have him in every lineup and he’s a great captain, obviously.
Mecole Hardman - KC (FanDuel $8,500 / DraftKings $5,800)
With Sammy Watkins out, Mecole Hardman still has a huge role in this offense. He was the second-best receiver behind Tyreek Hill a week ago, catching all four of his targets for 45 yards. If you think the Chiefs have success through the air, which I do, Mecole Hardman is a great play in all formats. He’s typically a GPP-play, but the Watkins injury makes him a bit safer at the price. Hardman is a deep-GPP captain as well as he can catch two long touchdowns and nobody would be surprised.
Daesean Hamilton - DEN (FanDuel $7,000 / DraftKings $4,800)
Emmanuel Sanders is playing, but the word is that he’s not 100%. If that’s true, DaeSean Hamilton could very well have a breakout game here. People have been projecting the breakout since week one, but with all the attention on Sutton and Sanders, Hamilton could very well get proper with five to seven targets. He has a high catch % on his targets and this Chiefs Defense has given up huge games to slot receivers. Hamilton is a great cheap option.
DFS Tight Ends - Week 7 Picks
Travis Kelce - KC (FanDuel $13,000 / DraftKings $9,800)
The Broncos have been good against tight ends this year, but they also haven’t faced the toughest of the bunch. Kelce is a different breed by every standard and could very well break out with Sammy Watkins out of the lineup. I suspect he’ll be lower owned than Hill and I’m not sure that’s correct. Kelce hasn’t got it going yet, but we all know a two-score, 150-yard performance is on its way very soon. I doubt he goes off to that level in this game, but he could certainly score twice and is a great candidate for MVP.
Noah Fant - DEN (FanDuel $6,500 / DraftKings $3,400)
Fant is extremely cheap and a solid option if you’re looking for value. The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends (27th) and the Broncos aren’t fully healthy at receiver. If the Chiefs focus on Courtland Sutton in the red-zone and double him, Noah Fant may very well be that second option Flacco look towards. I wouldn’t play him at captain, and I like Hamilton just a tad bit more in FLEX. Good luck tonight and please do reach out with any questions!
