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In fantasy baseball, owners can often spends weeks or months preparing for the draft. Many will pore over websites and lists and spreadsheets and forums and magazines for hours upon hours to ensure they make the right choices. But once draft day comes and goes, what’s next?
As the saying goes, you can’t win your league during the draft. The moves owners make during the season are the ones that will determine who wins. The art to winning at fantasy baseball is being able to determine who should be added to a roster and should be bypassed. In order to do that, an owner needs to be able to tell if someone is for real or not.
This weekly column will focus on some pitchers who have recently thrown their hats into the ring for consideration. These pitchers will be available in many leagues, and we’ll dig a little deeper to determine whether you should be picking these guys up or leaving them be. For Week 12, we'll look at Jacob Faria, Dan Straily, and Brad Peacock.
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The Hype Machine
Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
2016 Stats (Triple-A): 67.2 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 64 K (8.51 K/9), 32 BB (4.26 BB/9)
June 18, 2017 at Detroit: 7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9 K (11.57 K/9), 1 BB (1.29 BB/9)
Listed by MLB.com as Tampa’s ninth best prospect coming into the season, Jacob Faria already had plenty of hype before he cranked it up to the next level this spring. Having posted 10+ K/9 at every level to this point, the test for Faria would be whether he could take a step forward in Triple-A. And step forward, he did. Leading up to his big league debut, Faria posted a 6-1 record with a 3.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 12.89 K/9 at Triple-A this season. His walks were still a concern, but otherwise, Faria was ready for the big time. After two stellar quality starts to begin his career, he was now set to face Detroit to see if he could keep it going.
On June 18, Faria faced off against the Tigers, and he tamed them without much trouble. Throwing seven strong innings, he only surrendered one earned run on six hits and one walk while striking out nine along the way. The run came during a tough opening frame where Faria seemed to struggle with keeping his fastball down. Two hard hit singles resulted from grooved fastballs, but he escaped with only the one run scoring and two runners being left on base. After that, he settled down and didn’t give up another hit off his fastball for the next four innings. This control with his fastball, which he throws over 60% of the time, is critical to his success. It’s not got a lot of movement, so placement is key. Also, while it’s not his out pitch, it is the pitch that sets up his slider. That slider drew a swing-and-miss 20% of the time in this outing. With the league average swinging strike rate sitting at 9.7%, that’s a huge number.
Verdict
Without a doubt, Jacob Faria is for real. Everything’s set up for him. He’s come through a minor league system that has a long track record of success with starting pitchers, he’s built hype at every level by posting huge strikeout numbers, and he’s living up to it at the big league level. Faria has all the tools to be successful at the major league level and be valuable to fantasy owners. That said, there are potholes to watch out for in the future.
First, the walks. In his three big league starts so far, Faria has posted an excellent 1.83/9 walk rate. That excellence likely won’t continue. The last time Faria posted a walk rate that low was in rookie league in 2013. Instead, his walk rate spiked at Triple-A in 2016 at 4.26 and has regularly been around 3.50 over the last few seasons in the minors. This is above average in the majors, where starters are currently averaging a walk rate of 3.13. If he can settle in at 3.50, Faria should be just fine, and if he can keep that number lower than 3, there’s potential for greatness.
Second, he’s gotten pretty lucky so far. As mentioned before, his fastball doesn’t have a lot of movement, he generates less ground balls (41% in the minors) than the average major league starter (44%), and he’s stranded 84% of the major league runners that have reached base against him so far this season. Expect the league to adjust to his fastball, and expect some more of those runners to start crossing the plate.
Faria still looks like he’s got a world of potential in the future, but if his walk rate rises (as expected), the league adjusts (as expected), and more runners start scoring (as expected), expect him to be more like a league-average starter for this season. If he can avoid any of those expected circumstances, he can be a star.
Dan Straily, Miami Marlins
2016 Stats: 191.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K (7.62 K/9), 73 BB (3.43 BB/9)
June 16, 2017 at Atlanta: 6.1 IP, 0.63 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8 K (11.37 K/9), 0 BB (0.00 BB/9)
Dan Straily is the first post-hype pitcher who spent time in the Oakland system in this post, but he’s not the last. The 24th-round pick had high strikeout upside through the minors, but his first couple trips to the majors weren’t very good. After dominating Triple-A in 2012 and 2013 to the tune of a 1.74 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 10.53 strikeouts per nine innings, Straily looked poised to be a stud upon call-up. Instead, his walks spiked to 3.43/9, his strikeouts plummeted to 7.33/9, and he posted an ERA of 3.94. He wasn’t a bad pitcher, but he was just mediocre. Then, the travels began. First, he was shipped to the Cubs in 2014, and he was bad in one major league outing for them. Still just 26 years old, he was sent to Houston that offseason for Dexter Fowler. Fowler would go on to win a World Series while Straily would hop from Houston to San Diego to Cincinnati. With the Reds rebuilding, they let Straily take the ball for the majority of 2016, and he posted similar numbers to his time in Oakland with a 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 7.62 K/9. An underlying tinge of good fortune with his low BABIP of .239 and high strand rate of 81.2% led to a FIP that ballooned to 4.88, but he was still good enough to get another major league job by once again being traded, this time to the Miami Marlins. In Miami, Straily has flourished.
On June 16, Straily got to test out his stuff in Atlanta’s new ballpark. The good news was that he’d get to face Atlanta’s new lineup as well, and it’s below average in runs scored and 26th in the league in home runs. Straily would take advantage of the opportunity, and he dominated the Braves. Through 6 and 1/3 innings, Straily only gave up four hits and no earned runs while sitting down eight en route to his fifth win of the season. Only one of the hits would go for extra bases, and Straily never allowed multiple baserunners in the same inning.
All in all, it was an excellent outing where Straily kept good control of the game while relying heavily on his change-up. 28% of the pitches he threw in the outing were change-ups, and he threw it far more often than he had in any previous outing this season. He also made a point of keeping it low and out of the strike zone, especially pounding the area inside to righties/outside to lefties. This drew a high number of whiffs as hitters bit on pitches that were basically unhittable. This type of pitching is what drew so much hype for Straily all those years ago.
Verdict
This version of Dan Straily is a possibility on any given day, but the real version of Straily is likely just going to remain a mediocre pitcher in the majors. There are some nice things about this season, such as a bump in his strikeout rate to 9.23 from his career average of 7.80 and a drop in his walk rate from a 3.47 career average to 3.00, but he’s not dependable. Four of his last ten outings have included strikeout rates above 10. Five have included strikeout rates below seven. He noticeably tires quickly, regularly losing two MPH on his pitches over the course of six innings, and he hasn’t completed six innings in nine of his 14 starts this season. The version of Straily that showed up against the Braves is the best case scenario, and fantasy owners shouldn’t expect anything more than an average pitcher from day to day.
Brad Peacock, Houston Astros
2016 Stats (Triple-A): 117.0 IP, 4.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 119 K (9.15 K/9), 40 BB (3.08 BB/9)
June 19, 2017 at Atlanta: 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8 K (12.71 K/9), 2 BB (3.18 BB/9)
Brad Peacock is back. After working his way up through the Nationals minor league system, Peacock was the centerpiece of the trade with Oakland that sent Gio Gonzalez to Washington. Heralded as a top prospect, Peacock spent 2012 in Triple-A for Oakland before being shipped off to Houston that offseason for Jed Lowrie. He was given a chance to start 37 games for Houston over the next two seasons, and it did not go well. While carrying an above average strikeout rate, Peacock walked far too many batters. He would eventually have hip surgery and miss the vast majority of 2015 due to ongoing injury issues. 2016 saw Peacock resume a starting role in Triple-A and act as a spot starter for the big league club as well as a short reliever. He was still nothing special, but he did well as a reliever. Now that 2017 has rolled around, Peacock has resumed his role of short reliever-turned-spot starter. However, he’s recently had success as a starter. A lot of success.
On the 19th of June, Peacock took a turn in Oakland. The Athletics were coming off the high of sweeping the Yankees, but Peacock quickly put them in their place. He only allowed two baserunners through the first five innings, and seven of the fifteen outs came by strikeout. Peacock fell apart in the sixth, allowing a pair of walks and doubles, and Houston turned to its stellar bullpen to help bail him out. The bullpen would go on to cover for him the rest of the way and help Peacock secure his fourth win of the season.
This type of game has become Peacock’s new modus operandi, and his success is bolstered by a shift in how managers use bullpens. Peacock started the season as a short reliever, and as part of that role, he’s dramatically upped his slider usage. 2014 was the last time Peacock operated as a regular starter, and he threw his slider 15% of the time that season. When he did more short relief work in 2016, that usage jumped to 30% of the time. This year, it sits at 35%. This has resulted in Peacock’s strikeout rate rocketing up from a career average of 8.67/9 to a current rate of 13.30/9 this year. This is rightfully drawing a lot of interest from fantasy owners.
Verdict
All it took for Brad Peacock to become the real deal was ten years in the minors, a huge change in his pitch selection, and a dramatic shift in how managers handle pitching staffs. Peacock has all the makings of a mediocre pitcher who has found a specific niche where he can excel. Fortunately, that niche has been embraced by his manager, and so Peacock is excelling. He’s got a lot of value, but he’ll also have some limitations.
The strikeouts are real, and those are what will draw in fantasy owners. They are, however, completely dependent on his slider. He gets far more whiffs with that pitch than any other, so if it suffers, he will suffer. For the time being though, that slider should give him some value.
That said, Peacock isn’t really a starter like most starters. He’s more of a long reliever who happens to go first in the bullpen. He’s made six starts so far in 2017, and he’s only reached the sixth inning in two of them and finished it in one. It’s been a successful strategy that has led to strikeout rates over 12 in five of the six starts, but it does limit his contribution in other categories for fantasy owners. Starting pitchers have to finish five innings to qualify for a win, so if Peacock can only make it through five in 33% of his outings, don’t expect many wins. Combined with that, Peacock still struggles with walks and has walked four batters twice in those six starts. Each individual owner will have to decide if the trade-off of few wins and high walks is worth the strikeouts.
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