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Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.
This article comes from staff writers Steve Rebeiro (@Steverebeiro) and Jason Katz (@jasonkatz13), who compare two running backs in standard formats that are almost unanimously being taken in the first round.
Steve argues in favor of last year's rookie sensation from New Orleans, Alvin Kamara, while Jason maintains that the Giants' Saquon Barkley could be even better in 2018.
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Opening Statements: Who Do You Draft?
Kamara could be even better in his second year - Steve Rebeiro
Alvin Kamara finished third overall in scoring last season. The biggest knock on him heading into the 2018 season is that his production can’t be sustainable. His five-game stretch where he averaged 140 total yards a game and scored eight touchdowns can’t happen again.
We’ve heard all the reasons why Kamara’s 2017 season might have been a fluke and why it can’t happen again. We’ve heard all the knocks. But how come we don’t talk about how ridiculous it was that Kamara finished as the third-best running back despite having so many things going against him?
Kamara started three games the entire season. Three! He was the backup to Mark Ingram, a Pro Bowl running back who touched the ball 87 more times than Kamara and stole almost all the goal line carries from him. Kamara didn’t have a consistent role in the offense until the fourth game of the year. He was injured early in a Week 14 bout with the Falcons and missed almost the entire game. He had double-digit carries in five of his 16 games.
All of those negatives and Alvin Kamara still was the third highest scoring player in PPR last season. This season, he’ll be without backfield mate Mark Ingram for the first four games of the season. Even if someone takes some of the carries Ingram usually gets for those game, Kamara is going to get a good amount of them. Even if someone takes the goal line carries during those games, Kamara was still able to score six rushing touchdowns in the red zone last year despite barely getting work inside the five. And if Kamara proves that he can be a true every down back during those four games, the Saints may role with him as the true feature back in New Orleans.
Kamara was fourth in PPR points per game among running backs, only behind Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, and Todd Gurley. When you factor in David Johnson, Kamara’s ranking as the fifth overall running back makes perfect sense. He’ll be unleashed in New Orleans this year. Last year was no fluke.
Barkley could be a generational talent - Jason Katz
When it comes to the transition from college to the pros, running back is arguably the easiest position in which to succeed. Fantasy owners will always have some level of reluctance to spending a first round pick on a guy that has never played an NFL snap, but when that guy was selected in the top five picks of the NFL draft, that risk is a bit overstated.
We have now seen both Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette burst out of the gate with tremendous rookie campaigns. Barkley is a better prospect than both of them. Athletically, Barkley might be the greatest RB prospect of all time. Now, athleticism isn’t everything. You can be the most amazing athlete in the world and not be a good running back. Fortunately for Barkley, that doesn’t really matter. I think it’s fair to say that Barkley’s floor as a player is that he is actually a mediocre running back. Do you know who has been a mediocre running back his entire career? Melvin Gordon.
The past two seasons, Gordon has finished as the PPR RB6 by average ppg while being woefully inefficient and generally uninspiring. He did it on volume. Barkley has stepped into a situation where he is guaranteed volume. I do not see a scenario where a healthy Saquon Barkley fails to reach 350 touches. The Giants offensive line, while still bad, is improved with the addition of Nate Solder and the drafting of first-round talent, Will Hernandez. With a returning Odell Beckham, the Giants offense as a whole should be better, thus presenting more red zone opportunities for Barkley. Based on volume alone, Barkley should at least be a low-end RB1. He is borderline bust proof. And what if Barkley is, in fact, a generational talent? Then he has legitimate top-three upside.
Rebuttals: Why Take One Over the Other?
Barkley's usage will not be superior - Steve Rebeiro
The big case for Barkley over Kamara is that you’re getting a bellcow running back over a guy who shares carries. Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, and Leonard Fournette were all bellcow backs last year, but that didn’t stop Kamara from having more points per game and more overall points than all three of them.
Another case for Barkley over Kamara is that Barkley is going to replicate what Ezekiel Elliott did in 2016. Is he though? Elliott entered a situation where he would be running behind an elite offensive line that helped Darren McFadden rush for 1,000 yards the year before. The Giants have bolstered their offensive line, but we can’t ignore how pitiful they were last year. The Giants failed to rush for 100 yards as a team in nine different games last year. It’s much more likely that Barkley’s numbers are more similar to Fournette last year or Gurley in 2015 than Elliott in 2016.
Even that is high praise! But it isn’t enough for me to put Barkley over Kamara, whose per game totals were two points higher than Fournette last season. Kamara put up the third highest point total among running backs in a timeshare. If he’s able to carve out an even bigger role for himself during the four games without Ingram, the sky's the limit for his value. If he isn’t, he’s still shown he can put up monster fantasy points with limited touches. We haven’t even seen Barkley take a snap in the NFL yet.
Kamara simply won't be as efficient - Jason Katz
Steve said it best: “The big case for Barkley over Kamara is that you’re getting a bellcow running back over a guy who shares carries.” While Kamara’s snap share will certainly increase from the 44.3% he saw last season and his opportunity share will increase from the 38.5% he saw last season, as Steve also correctly identified, Kamara’s efficiency is going to drop. As Paul Heyman would say, “That’s not a prediction; that’s a spoiler.” The odds of Kamara matching last year’s efficiency is flat out 0%. It is not going to happen. He had the single most efficient season of all time last year.
The good news for Kamara is he can certainly make up some of the lost efficiency with increased volume. But we can also safely say that even with an increase in volume, Kamara has no shot of sniffing 300 touches. His cap is probably around 250, maybe 275. There’s a very realistic scenario where Barkley touches the ball almost 100 more times than Kamara. Barkley is also going to have far more goalline carries and touchdown opportunities.
We know that the single best indicator of fantasy success is volume. Above all other metrics, volume is king. Barkley has it. Kamara doesn’t. I am not suggesting there isn’t a world where Kamara outscores Barkley – of course, there is. I am not even suggesting it is unlikely. This is about the security that comes with Barkley’s touch floor. Relying on Kamara is relying on efficiency. Sure, he may be able to put up mid RB1 numbers again on efficiency, but, in the first round, I want Barkley’s volume.
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
