Every fantasy owner has certain guys that they can never seem to stay away from, no matter how many seasons they are disappointed. The inverse is also true, making it perennially challenging to trust a player you do not believe in.

This latter point is true of Johnny Cueto and myself. His fantasy stats have been consistently very good, and yet the large discrepancy between his ERA and xFIP prevents me from ever considering him at an ace price.

It's been a little while since I called for his collapse, so I'll do it below. This article would be too depressing if that was all I did, so we'll also look at an ace that delivers where Cueto falls short. Shall we get started?

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Johnny Cueto (SP, SF) ADP: 42

Cueto's good fortune continued in 2016, as he posted an 18-5 record and 2.79 ERA in his first year in San Francisco. As usual, his 3.42 xFIP was not as impressive. Cueto managed to up his K% from 20.3 percent in 2015 to 22.5 percent last season, giving some experts confidence that he will be a four category fantasy SP. I beg to differ.

PITCHf/x is a great tool to evaluate whether a change of approach supports a change in a pitcher's statistical profile. It does not suggest any growth in Cueto's strikeout potential. He threw more sliders (11.9 percent in 2015, 19.3 percent last year) at the expense of his heater (30.6 percent to 23.2 percent) last season, a pitch mix swap that usually produces more Ks. However, Cueto's slider is poor by SwStr% (8 percent) while his fastball is better (9.7 percent). We should expect more Ks with more fastballs.

This effect is compounded by Cueto's best pitch, the changeup. His change had an 18.4 percent SwStr%, 43.6 percent chase rate, and 35.2 percent Zone%. It's an excellent put away pitch, but the low Zone% means that Cueto must be ahead in the count to utilize it. The heater's 55.6 percent Zone% fulfills this role well, while the slider's 52.5 percent Zone% is not as effective. The net result was a decline in Cueto's overall SwStr% last season (9.9 percent to 9.4 percent), suggesting sharp regression in his K%.

Everything else about Cueto is the same. His strikeout rate was still not high enough to support his 78 percent LOB%, while his HR/FB of 8.4 percent was his lowest mark since 2012. Cueto generated more grounders last year (42.4 percent GB% in 2015, 50.2 percent in 2016), but his power-suppressing home park means that the change did nothing but increase his BABIP (.293 last year). Cueto only provides three fantasy category production at his best, making him too expensive even if he doesn't collapse a la Sonny Gray.

Verdict: Chump

Noah Syndergaard (SP, NYM) ADP: 19.5

If you are looking for a worthy arm to lead your fantasy staff, look no further than Thor. Syndergaard went 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a 29.3 percent K% last year. Unlike Cueto, Thor's xFIP (2.67) supported his stellar ERA. Best of all, we haven't seen a full season of pitching from this New York ace yet. He could have Kershawian upside.

This potential is the result of absolutely filthy stuff. Syndergaard developed a slider last year, throwing it 21.1 percent of the time at the expense of his curveball (down to 8.3 percent usage). It may seem odd to scrap the "hammer" that gave Thor his nickname, but it was a good change. The slider produced an excellent 27.5 percent SwStr% and 52 percent O-Swing%. The curve only produced a 15.7 percent SwStr% and 35.8 percent O-Swing%. The slider was also better when batters managed to put it in play, posting a .162/.193/.229 line against versus the curve's .208/.263/.283. The curve's numbers would be good for a mere mortal, but Norse gods aspire to more.

Amazingly, the curve was not even Syndergaard's second best pitch. That honor belonged to the change, which posted a 21.1 percent SwStr% and 44 percent chase rate. His heat was also elite, posting a SwStr% of 9.1 percent despite a high Zone% of 56.8 percent. Thor also features a sinker, but it isn't great by either SwStr% (6.5 percent) or results (.348/.371/.459). It is not imperative to throw ground balls at Citi Field, so Syndergaard could get even better by scrapping the pitch.

This is especially true when the team behind him is considered. The Mets projected infield (Duda/Walker/Cabrera/Reyes) combined for -15 DRS last season, potentially playing a role in Thor's .334 BABIP against. David Wright (-8) and Wilmer Flores (-11) would not help matters if they crack the lineup. Syndergaard's best option may be to bypass his infielders entirely, focusing instead on Ks and fly balls.

The rest of Thor's metrics appear luck-neutral. His 76.9 percent LOB% seems sustainable given all of the Ks, while home runs are unlikely to bother him with a HR/FB of 8.6 percent and FB% of 27.2 percent. Thor is currently more expensive than Cueto, but the two rounds separating them are nowhere near enough.

Verdict: Champ

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