RADIO
Dynasty owners don’t play week to week, they play long term. However, dynasty owners still need to analyze different aspects of weekly matchups to determine the best time to sell or buy a player.
Make sure you don’t buy that hot rookie too soon and don’t sell the aging veteran too late. Each week, I will analyze different matchups across fantasy football with a dynasty frame of mind.
Let's take some time to see what matchups might pique the interest of dynasty league owners for Week 8 of the 2017 season. Here are some Week 12 matchup previews for dynasty league owners to monitor.
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Broncos at Raiders
Paxton Lynch vs Raiders Defense
Boy did we have high hopes for the Raiders this season. 10 plus wins, AFC West champions and even Super Bowl champions. So far this season hasn’t even come close to that. In fact, the only team more disappointing in the AFC West is the Denver Broncos. When the NFL schedule makers put together Week 12 games, this was probably seen as one of the better matchups. Possibly even one that could have huge implications on the AFC West. Instead, this game is only circled now because we will see Paxton Lynch for the first time in 2017.
Let’s talk about Lynch first though. The Broncos traded up in the first round of the 2016 draft to take their potential franchise QB. The year prior, the Broncos spent a seventh round pick on Trevor Siemian to battle for the backup QB position. Instead of Paxton Lynch or Brock Osweiler taking over for the newly retired Peyton Manning and defending Super Bowl champs, it was Siemian who seemingly came out of nowhere. Lynch was able to get some in game reps during the 2016 season, completing 49 of 83 passes for 497 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. It’s a very small sample size and not nearly enough to determine what we may see from the sophomore this year.
Coming out of Memphis, Lynch was seen as a big, athletic QB who could move in the pocket and had the arm strength to reach people all over the field. He needed to be groomed into a NFL QB though and that can take some time. Lynch worked out of a college offense at Memphis and didn’t learn the traditional style of QB play, like taking a snap under center, perfecting a five or seven step drop and even working out of the huddle. For as athletic that Lynch is, he lacks the accuracy needed to throw on the run. If he’s not sitting in the pocket making throws, it can lead to lost opportunities. Young QBs have a tendency to take off when protection breaks down and miss all the steps in their progression. If Lynch hasn’t improved on this in the last year, there is a man on the other side of the line Sunday looking to make Lynch as uncomfortable as possible.
Kalil Mack and really the Raiders defense as a whole is underperforming this season. Even though Mack is on pace to top his career high of 59 tackles, he may see his lowest sack total since his rookie season. One thing that has made the Oakland defense successful in recent years is Mack’s ability to play all over the field and get to the QB. We can’t blame it all on Mack underperforming as the Raiders currently rank 31st in the NFL with only 14 sacks this year. The Oakland linebackers have a mix of young talent and veteran presence but have not been able to help this year. Even with Mack, Bruce Irvin, Navorro Bowman and Cory James, Oakland is still giving up 367.1 yards per game and 253.3 passing yards per game. That ranks the Raiders 26th and 27th respectfully. No pass rush has allowed opposing QBs to be more comfortable in the pocket and wait on receivers to get open. It doesn’t matter how good your corners or safeties are, they can’t hold coverage on NFL wide receivers that long.
Even though Lynch will be seeing game action for the first time in almost a year, he has some very good weapons to work with. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have underperformed this year, but that has been due to poor QB play. Siemian and Osweiler haven’t exactly helped their skill position players into successful situations. That will be the name of the game though, can the Denver receivers get open before the pass rush rattles Lynch. He has the abilities to hit the open receivers while in the pocket, but it will be a completely different story if he spends his day running away from Oakland defenders. Good news for Denver fans, the Broncos wide receivers are better than the Oakland secondary and pass rush. They will get open quick enough for Lynch to have just enough time to throw.
What to watch for: Expect Oakland to dial up the pass rush and send multiple defenders at all times. They only have a chance to win this game if they can get Lynch out of the pocket, keep his eyes from scanning the field and reading his progressions. The Broncos offensive line has been middle of the pack, which will be just enough. Lynch could be a solid play on Sunday, but long term questions could be answered as well. If Lynch struggles in this game, against a very poor defense, then I continue to question whether he is the answer at QB for the Broncos. I need to see some significant improvement from last year to this year.
Titans at Colts
Corey Davis vs Colts Secondary
Corey Davis owners have been calling a breakout performance for two weeks now, but it’s yet to come. If there ever were a time for that performance, it’s this week in Indianapolis. Fantasy owners have become accustomed to fast starts from top rookies, and they expected the same thing prior to this season from Davis. When you spend a top 5 rookie pick (which most owners probably had to if they acquired Davis in the draft) you hope for immediate production. Players going to the same range this year include Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and Ju Ju Smith-Schuster. Fortunately for Davis, outside of Smith-Schuster, this hasn’t been a great season for rookie wide receivers. Davis wasn’t originally supposed to be in this article, but based on recent news, I think it’s significant to note this game has a lot riding on Davis.
Late Friday afternoon, news broke that Rishard Mathews had missed practice with a hamstring injury. Nothing about the news suggested Mathews would be ready to go by Sunday afternoon. This means an uptick in stock for all Titans pass catchers, but Davis will be the most important part to this puzzle. Fantasy owners and Titans fans are excited to see something from Davis that backs up the high pick that was used on him. Eric Decker will slide to the outside but it is noticeable that he has lost a step this season. Taywan Taylor will see more usage in three wide sets, but he is a more gimmick version of Tyreek Hill. Delanie Walker continues to be a big threat and mismatch at tight end, but he is not stretching the field. This is going to be Davis’s day to shine and be the big play maker. This is important against the Colts though. Receivers have the ability to go for big yards against Indianapolis.
The Colts defense is currently on pace to give up the second most yards in franchise history. Based on the current pace, they would be second only to last year’s team. Before I spend a paragraph shredding the Colts defense like most offenses have this year, let’s start with a couple of plus notes first. The defense has actually seen some positive gains the past couple of weeks. They are coming off a bye to face a Titans offense that really isn’t all that superior. It was just two weeks ago that the Colts shut down the Steelers and their prolific offense for more than a half. That just doesn’t happen on accident. It takes a good game plan and some serious heart to force the Steelers offense into struggling for an entire game. With that being said though, big plays have been the name of the game against the Colts this season. They are currently last in the NFL, giving up a league high 8.3 yards per attempt, while sitting at 31st in the NFL for giving up 275 passing yards per game. Those are bad numbers, considering you play in a division that has Jacksonville, Houston and Tennessee, none of which are known for their ability to air it out (except for the Texans while Watson was under center.) As I mentioned though, the Colts give up big plays and a lot of them. They have given up 47 completions this year of 20 yards or longer. That is seven more than the next closest team. The league average is only 30, which is 17 less than what the Colts have given up. Mathews was going to be the guy that exposed that flaw in this Colts defense, but since he may be out this week, lets officially welcome Davis to the party.
What to watch for: Davis is going to offer up some big play opportunities. He could very easily go five for 100 with a TD, finally offering fantasy owners a glimpse of what is to come. Health has been the biggest issue with Davis this year. The talent is there, he has a QB to get him the ball, a running game to take the pressure off and a good offensive line. No more excuses for Davis. If he doesn’t bring it this week, we need to reconsider his impact moving forward, but it’s not time to question yet. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed, right now is the time to move. After this weekend, owners will finally have the reassurance they need in their top pick.
Bears at Eagles
Mitchell Trubisky and Adam Shaheen vs Eagles D
Unless you are a Bears or Eagles fan, I doubt you will be tuning into this game. Just feel free to look up the box score after to keep to track of this matchup. I anticipate, maybe even guarantee, that this will be a game where the Eagles go up big early and don’t look back. Which is perfect because that will play into my exact reasons for wanting to keep an eye on this matchup. I have to say I was pleasantly surprised with Mitchell Trubisky this past weekend against the Lions. Jordan Howard tore up the defense which allowed Trubisky to actually play like a franchise QB. He even led a late drive that would have tied the game if it hadn’t been for a poor kick by Connor Barth. For this matchup though, it’s not just Trubisky, but the Trubisky to Adam Shaheen connection.
Shaheen hasn’t had the opportunity to offer much for owners in 2017. He was behind Zack Miller on the depth chart and Miller had become a veteran target in an offense decimated by injuries. After a gruesome injury to Miller two weeks ago in a loss to the Saints, Shaheen has had an opportunity to step up. It appears Dion Sims is still technically a top the depth chart, but hasn’t played since Week 8 due to an illness. Since Miller went down with his leg injury, Shaheen has hauled in all six of his targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. Numbers that jump off the stat sheet? Absolutely not. It’s important to note that Trubisky is not getting an opportunity to work with any pass catchers the Bears view as long term options. Kevin White is missing out on another season and Cam Meredith was lost in the preseason and the rest of the receivers seemed to be temporary stop gaps. If Shaheen has the opportunity to work the rest of the season with Trubisky, then he could be the favorite to receive targets next season. That’s big news for a tight end who really will be playing with a bunch of unknowns at receiver in 2018.
Boy that Eagles defense is bad, and by bad, I mean the way 17 and 18 year olds in high school use it. I’m just trying my best to stay up on the current lingo. The best part of the Eagles defense, is their offense putting up points and making other teams turn one dimensional. It just allows the Eagles defense to pin their ears back and go after the QB, which can be awful for a young QB starting only their seventh career game. The Bears really limited Trubisky in his first three starts, but have since allowed him to open up in his last three games with 30 or more past attempts in each. The only defenses that Trubisky has faced so far, that compare with Philadelphia, are the Vikings and Saints. Trubisky didn’t hit 50% of his completions in either of those games. I anticipate the same thing holding true here. Philadelphia is tied for fifth with 29 sacks and also hold QBs to a 61% completion rate and 235.8 passing yards per game. Add to all of this, the game is in Philadelphia where the fans are, shall we say, a little less than pleasant. Tough crowd and tough defense to go along with one of the MVP candidates and it becomes a recipe for a disaster of a game.
What to watch for: Trubisky is going to need a safety net in this one. Tarik Cohen could help with that, but I expect the Trubisky-Shaheen connection to grow. The Eagles have been middle of the road, giving up an average of 7.37 fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Shaheen has seen his targets increase the last two weeks and his targets will increase again. Very soon Shaheen will be the TE to own in Chicago and could start to develop into a good weekly fantasy options. As soon as 2018 though, Shaheen could start working towards the top 10.
