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As the trade deadline looms, there’s bound to be plenty of comings and goings in MLB very soon. The aftermath of these potential trades is sure to bring vast fantasy baseball ramifications. Some players will stand to benefit from the moving parts of the annual trading frenzy while others could see their value be hampered.
Some pitchers, especially relievers, can evolve into league-winning assets or devolve into borderline-cut candidates, depending on their trade destination. Hitters generally don't tend to be as vulnerable to such drastic value discrepancies following a trade, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t an edge that we can forecast beforehand.
Most of these names are veterans on rebuilding/disappointing clubs, which renders them likely trade candidates with August 1 looming. Let’s take a look at how things might shape out. A potential fantasy impact of being traded is also provided to help determine who we recommend to buy low or sell high on.
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Which Pitchers Comprise The 2023 Trade Market?
Let's first acknowledge that just about every playoff hopeful would love to bolster their starting pitching. The Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and Milwaukee Brewers stand out as six of the top clubs in the market for this area. For fantasy purposes, the Reds signify a dangerous team on the prowl for a starting pitcher with the caveat of the bandbox that is the Great American Ball Park. The O's may not offer an advantageous environment in Camden Yards, either. Though Camden Yards is much friendlier to pitchers than it has been in years past.
Jack Flaherty/Jordan Montgomery- SPs, St. Louis Cardinals
Potential Fantasy Impact: Neutral
The underachieving Cardinals could elect to gut their already-thin starting rotation at the deadline. Flaherty and Montgomery represent the most likely to go with both arms being holders of expiring contracts. Montgomery owns a solid 3.37 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 105:31 K/BB ratio over 115 innings pitched. Flaherty, on the other hand, has proven very volatile with a 4.39 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 102:52 K/BB over 104 2/3 innings. The 27-year-old does have seven starts allowing one run or less with at least five innings pitched mixed in there, though.
Flaherty canceled those impressive showings out, however, with three appearances permitting at least six runs, including a 10-run pulverization on May 4. On paper, St. Louis actually ranks as a relatively favorable environment for these two hurlers with a top-10 scoring offense and neutral ballpark setting. Montgomery would remain a reliable, if back-end fantasy starter, in potentially new digs, while Flaherty would maintain treatment as a matchup-based streaming play.
It’s admittedly a fickle stat, but it’s worth mentioning Flaherty is fourth in the NL in run support per nine innings (6.36), while Montgomery finds himself in the top 20 at 4.93 in this area.
Lucas Giolito/Lance Lynn- SPs, Chicago White Sox
Potential Fantasy Impact: Neutral/Negative
Much like the Cards, the White Sox look poised to function as major sellers at the deadline. Giolito, arguably 2022’s biggest fantasy bust overall, has rebounded nicely in 2023. The 28-year-old features a 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 131:42 K/BB ratio over 121 innings this season. Lynn, on the flip side, has served as one of the most haphazard pitchers in baseball this year. The big right-hander sports an ugly 6.18 ERA (MLB-worst 79 ER) and 1.44 WHIP with 139 strikeouts across 115 innings.
Lynn’s bat-missing ability is a tantalizing aspect, marred by -1.0 WAR despite being top-10 in punchouts overall. The 36-year-old has been a complete liability in keeping the ball in the yard, serving up an MLB-worst 28 home runs in '23. Giolito has also been plagued by the long ball, being taken deep 20 times so far this year. Fantasy managers might want to be careful rooting for either hurler to be shipped elsewhere, though. Cincinnati, a potential top suitor, fields the most hitter-friendly park factor for homers since 2021.
Giolito (4.98) and Lynn (5.17) are both quietly situated in the top 15 of RS/9 on the South Side.
Marcus Stroman- SP, Chicago Cubs
Potential Fantasy Impact: Negative
Stroman could have the most to lose of anyone here if moved away from a very advantageous environment in the "Friendly Confines" of Wrigley Field. That's especially true considering some of the possible landing spots that a trade could yield.
The 32-year-old groundball pitcher plays on a Cubs team that has collected the second-most defensive runs saved across second base and shortstop in MLB this season. A trade could disrupt this fruitful setup which has enabled Stroman to assemble a 3.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and NL-high 15 quality starts covering 122 1/3 innings pitched.
The '23 All-Star has limped to a 6.46 ERA over his last five starts (23 2/3 IP), but that shouldn’t prevent the Cubbies from exploring trade opportunities for his expiring deal. The fantasy sell-high window has probably closed for the moment with his recent drop-off. Therefore, managers probably have to hang on and keep their fingers crossed that Stroman doesn’t end up in Cincy, where his value could really tank. Though, Texas, Milwaukee, Houston, and the Tampa Bay Rays would be some nice destinations for the right-hander.
Jordan Hicks- RP, St. Louis Cardinals
Potential Fantasy Impact: Negative/Neutral
The only relief pitcher to make this list, Hicks quickly usurped Giovanny Gallegos as the Cards reliever worth rostering after Ryan Helsley (forearm) went down. With Helsley still out through at least early August, Hicks should remain the primary closer in St. Louis. But that dynamic could shift if the brass chooses to sell high on his expiring contract. They would be wise to sell while he’s rolling; Hicks' career looked to be on the decline after lingering throwing arm issues were followed by 2019 Tommy John surgery.
The 26-year-old has accumulated eight saves with a 1.80 ERA and rosy 17:3 K/BB in 15 IP since June 14. Hicks’ 100-mph sinker and recent control clean-up are sure to make him an attractive bullpen addition to target for contenders. Gallegos stands as an incumbent, yet uninspiring pre-deadline fantasy stash, with the implication he handles closing duties until Helsley returns if Hicks is ultimately dealt. Hicks could end up in the Bronx, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Minnesota, or San Francisco among many other possibilities.
There are not too many situations where the flame-throwing righty would immediately assume the stopper role. I’m trying to hit the eject button in fantasy via sell-high scenarios ahead of the deadline. St. Louis is tied for eighth in save opportunities (47) in '23, so Hicks finds himself in fairly beneficial territory overall even if it doesn't seem that way.
Michael Lorenzen- SP, Detroit Tigers
Potential Fantasy Impact: Positive
Let’s end with a positive potential fantasy impact for a change. The hitting aspect of Lorenzen’s two-way career may never have taken off, but he’s molded into quite a consistent and effective starting pitcher. The former first-round pick owns a 3.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 76:26 K/BB over 100 2/3 innings this year. Lorenzen has a remarkable 18 2/3 scoreless-inning streak going, heightening the prospective value of Detroit's returns as they try and sell high on his one-year pact.
The cavernous Comerica Park is a beneficial setting for starting pitchers, but the lowly Tigers offense isn’t very helpful for win-column fantasy upside. Even if a Lorenzen exchange results in the shift to a less pitcher-friendly arrangement, his fantasy upside should amplify with increased potential run support. Unfortunately, Lorenzen’s recent string of success diminishes the premise of fantasy buy-low possibilities, so managers should probably hold on and hope he moves to a contender.
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