Rafael Devers 2021 Fantasy Outlook: More Contact Could Lead To Bounce-Back Season
3 years agoBoston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers hits the ball very hard, and 2020 was no exception. In fact, his average exit velocity of 93 mph was in the 96th percentile, and his maximum exit velocity was a robust 116.7 mph. However, his batting average plummeted from .311 to .263, largely due to a significant increase in his strikeout percentage. In 2019, Devers struck out in 17% of his plate appearances, a number that is actually pretty good for a guy that hits the ball so hard and also posted 32 home runs. In contrast, his 2020 campaign saw that rate explode to 27%, which put him in just the 26th percentile league-wide. His overall contact was also down and his swings and misses were up, which severely limited his ability to get on base. There is some good news, though, as his barrel percentage went up from 10 to 12.2, but at his current NFBC ADP of 44, taking him there means betting on and paying for a bounce-back. For what it's worth, Steamer projects him to do just that, splitting the difference between his 2019 and 2020 seasons, with wRC+ scores of 132 and 109, respectively, to a 124 in 2021. He may very well be worth the price you pay, but you are leaving very little room for value and taking on much more risk than any potential reward may justify. For reference, players going just after him include Marcell Ozuna, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randy Arozarena, Cavan Biggio and Pete Alonso.