Jurickson Profar 2020 Outlook: Batting Average Rebound Candidate
4 years agoAfter a breakout in 2018 with the Rangers in which he hit .254-20-77, Padres’ second baseman Jurickson Profar saw a peculiar batting average regression in 2019. During last season with the A’s, Profar only managed a .218 AVG despite an xBA of .251 and a decline in strikeout rate from 14.8% in 2018 to 14.5%. This poor AVG was driven by an MLB-worst .218 BABIP (min. 500 plate appearances) in 2019. A likely BABIP correction, together with solid plate discipline including an 87.3% zone contact rate and 26.1% chase rate in 2019, suggests positive regression for Profar's batting average in 2020. Additionally, in 2019 Profar matched his 2018 HR total in 76 fewer at-bats despite moving from Texas to Oakland. Profar’s HR consistency was supported by an average 91.7 EV on FB/LD in 2019 (equaling his 2018 EV on FB/LD), improvement in average launch angle to 14.2 degrees and a barrel rate increase from 5.0% in 2018 to 6.2%. If these figures remain the same or continue to improve, the 20-homer threshold is again in play for 2020, even in his new home of Petco Park. While Profar is currently projected to bat eighth in 2020, the improvements to the Padres' lineup, including the addition of Tommy Pham and a healthy Fernando Tatis, Jr., should help the lineup turnover more, leading to more opportunities for Profar. As a result, a repeat of Profar’s 2018 production with the potential for more, including a more palatable AVG, is possible for those drafting him around pick 340.