RADIO
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.
If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (80-37-7), netting nearly 47 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 16 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:
Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.
***Because this tournament is so strong from top-to-bottom, we have been given a handful of virtual coin flips in the head-to-head market. The books are protecting themselves on certain sides with a higher vig attached to my preferred golfer, but I am not one who generally lays prices on matchup bets. I don't mind attempting to find a Dustin Johnson wager against someone ranked better than him on the futures list, but I have only found high-vig wagers against Patrick Cantlay and Tiger Woods. I don't believe in forcing bets where there aren't any and will only be attaching one selection for the article this week. I will also have a top-play in my 'Vegas Report' that releases Wednesday.
Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners -130
Reasons I Liked the Play: Despite making seven cuts in a row, Corey Conners is one of the golfers that is popping off on my head-to-head sheet for missed cut potential. The Canadian is not very long off the tee, nor does he feature the touch around the green or three-putt avoidance that you would hope to see for someone on a difficult track. Conners' recent results will give some hope that he finds a way to traverse Riveria Country Club, but I am not buying into the hype.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: A lot of the concerns I have about Corey Conners are also present in Ryan Palmer. Palmer's short game can always be a deterrent for his success, and his statistical setup for the venue leaves him exposed to some missed cut potential of his own. I do believe we have about a six percent edge in terms of implied win probability, but I worry that we could be in store for a missed cut showing from both men.
1.00 Unit to win 1.10
Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140
Reasons I Liked the Play:
Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ will be my 'Vegas Report' bet this week. I try to put my premium selection in these articles as often as possible to allow everyone to grab the same numbers I am acquiring, but my in-depth write-up will be out for this matchup on Wednesday.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Last Week's Results:
1-2-0 ( -0.43 Units)
We destroyed the closing numbers on all three wagers last week but ended up having to settle for a small loss at 1-2. As was projected in the article, Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay saw approximately 35 points of movement (closing at +125), but we weren't able to connect on what I had pegged as nearly a 50/50 wager. I am never a huge fan of releasing selections like that in my columns because they work better for those that take every edge possible, but it is hard to pass up on around eight percent of implied probability. We will attempt to get ourselves back on track at the Genesis Invitational, but we thankfully still have almost 2.5 units of profit to show for this piece.
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:
9-8-0 (+2.42 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Sony Open | Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| American Express | Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Waste Management | Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Pebble Beach | Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Pebble Beach | Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Pebble Beach | Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (8-2-1)
+5.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
