RADIO
The NFL preseason is rife with hyperbole. Countless players report in "the best shape of their career." Unheralded rookies "really stand out" in training camp without pads. Coaches talk up almost every player on the roster.
While that's all good and well, there are also players who struggle with injuries, inconsistency, and competition. The red flags may be harder to find but paying close attention to usage can reveal hard truths about players who could struggle to gain traction during the regular season.
Here are a few names at each position whose fantasy stock should be falling based on preliminary preseason outcomes.
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Running Backs
Michael Carter, New York Jets
Carter led the team in rush attempts and carries in their recent game against the Packers. That's part of the problem. The exhibition game leaders are usually the second and third-stringers because the starters barely see the field, if at all. Carter has been running behind both Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson throughout training camp and that hasn't changed in exhibition game action.
Jets HB snap count after 2 drives
Tevin Coleman 6
Ty Johnson 6
Michael Carter 0— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) August 21, 2021
Carter has been one of the running back sleepers most enticing to Zero RB drafters because he was selected by a team where the job was his to claim. Either he hasn't done enough to make that happen or the new coaching staff plans to stick with the veterans they have until their hand is forced. Either way, he's looking riskier by the day, even as an RB3.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
In his rookie season, Swift was a risk-reward pick with upside but also numerous question marks. Another year, same story. Swift has missed the past couple of weeks due to a groin injury. He has barely been on the field for anything other than individual drills. For a veteran that might make little difference but Swift is entering his sophomore season under an entirely new coaching staff. This is the same staff that made a point of signing Jamaal Williams, who OC Anthony Lynn seems to have an affinity for.
Know I'm late here, but Anthony Lynn's comments on Jamaal Williams should be taken seriously. Even if we think they're wrong. https://t.co/q9utAQXPiY pic.twitter.com/FLDE67GGAk
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) May 24, 2021
Swift was already considered the 'B' back in this offense and has done nothing to change the mind of his coaches because he hasn't been able to suit up. It's hard enough to trust a running back, talented as he may be, on a bad team. We now have multiple reasons to fade Swift.
Texans RBs
At this point, it's clear that Deshaun Watson isn't taking the field in a Texans uniform any time soon, probably never again. Rookie Davis Mills hasn't wowed us with accuracy so far, leaving Tyrod Taylor as the likely starter in Week 1. Taylor probably doesn't get enough respect for his abilities but there's no doubt this offense as a whole takes a huge hit without Watson.
So, we have an offense that was 31st in rushing yardage and 30th in rushing touchdowns last year and subtract a franchise QB. Then, rather than relying on David Johnson as a three-down back, add veterans Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead to the mix to make them all completely irrelevant. Johnson is already being pegged as a third-down back only, behind Lindsay and Ingram on the depth chart. Lindsay may play on early downs but has a non-existent floor in PPR leagues. This is a team that will likely be playing from behind a lot this season, so the entire backfield should simply be ignored.
Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints
The absences of Drew Brees and Michael Thomas (see below) drew speculation that Murray could see more action on the ground this season. Now, it looks like he may not even make the final roster cut. He has looked sluggish throughout camp and only mustered six yards on five carries in the first preseason game. Meanwhile, Tony Jones Jr. ran buck wild in the same game by totaling 120 yards. Murray is shifting from sneaky sleeper to hard pass on draft day.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fournette continues to be his own worst enemy. He had his share of off-field issues in Jacksonville which caused him to be released just before the start of the 2020 season. He didn't curry any favor with Bruce Arians this offseason by openly stating opposition to the NFL's vaccination stance and not attending the team's White House visit.
As far as football-related issues, the team lists Fournette behind Ronald Jones on the depth chart which indicates he'll have to serve as a backup or passing-down threat. Problem is, they also signed Giovani Bernard to take that job and have already said he'll have a significant role. Fournette could be the odd man out in this backfield. Not that fantasy owners will be missing much after he averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year and totaled all of 600 yards from scrimmage.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Not to sound like Captain Obvious but Thomas' fantasy stock has taken a massive hit this preseason. The drama behind his decision to delay surgery and rehab might be more significant than the ankle injury itself. Thomas is supposed to be back in action midseason but fantasy managers should be very wary.
In 2020, MT missed the first half of the season, came back for six games, then spent the rest of the campaign on IR. If he isn't putting 100% effort into being healthy and ready to play, we can't be surprised if history repeats itself. Then there's the whole issue of not knowing who the quarterback in New Orleans will be this season. In every league, there will be someone who pounces on him in the middle rounds thinking they're getting a great value pick. It won't be me.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
All the hype over Chase being the first wideout selected in the NFL Draft and joining former teammate Joe Burrow in Cincinnati is slowly giving way to reality. The fact is that Chase hasn't played a meaningful snap on a football field in almost 20 months. He is a 21-year-old rookie who will have a learning curve. He also has to contend with two quality receivers in Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.
It's far from a slam dunk that he'll be the most productive receiver in Cincy, yet he's being drafted as such. Chase has reportedly struggled with timing throughout training camp. In fact, the entire Bengals offense has had a hard time because the shoddy O-line can't keep a clean pocket for Burrow. Things will surely improve, but Chase may be overdrafted based on his draft capital.
D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars
Chark's arrow looked to be pointing up initially. The Jags have a new franchise QB and offensive-minded coach that could help Chark rebound from a down 2020 season. Then the reports came that Urban Meyer wasn't impressed with Chark's tape. Then came the added weight; this was a request by Meyer that Chark add muscle to get stronger but it doesn't usually result in positive gains. Finally, Chark suffered a broken finger on his right hand that will keep him out of preseason action completely.
Despite all this, Chark's draft stock hasn't dropped. He sits inside the top-30 receivers according to ADP consensus, well ahead of Laviska Shenault Jr. and Marvin Jones Jr. As it stands, Jones appears to be the WR1 in the Jags offense with Shenault close behind. Chark will have to work his way into his coach's circle of trust while developing chemistry with Trevor Lawrence in the regular season. Easier said than done.
John Brown, Las Vegas Raiders
Exchanging Nelson Agholor for John Brown might seem like an even swap for the silver and black. Agholor served as an effective field stretcher for the Raiders last year, averaging 18.7 yards per reception with a 15.5 aDoT. Brown has averaged 15.2 Y/R and a 14.4 aDoT over the last three seasons between Buffalo and Baltimore. If Agholor finished as a top-25 fantasy WR, why can't Brown?
The problem is that the team is committed to making Henry Ruggs III work as the deep threat they envisioned when spending a first-round pick on him last year and Bryan Edwards has come on to command a bigger role than expected. It may be Edwards and Ruggs who wind up starting with Hunter Renfrow in the slot, relegating Brown to a part-time role.
Quarterbacks
Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos
Simply put, if you have two quarterbacks you don't have one. As long as this position battle drags on, both players become undraftable in fantasy - even Superflex leagues. The growing concern is that they will be moved in and out of the starting lineup throughout the season based on performance. Lock has looked better but not significantly enough to ward off Bridgewater. Teddy B fits the personality of this team better as a mistake-free game manager since the strength of this club is on defense. But the front office wants Lock to take the mantle and grow from the competition.
Preseason action hasn't done much to separate the two. In Week 1, Lock had the edge by throwing for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Bridgewater went for 74 yards and one score. In Week 2, Lock completed 9 of 14 pass attempts for 80 yards with no TD or INT while Bridgewater went 9 of 11 for 105 yards and one TD. This may be a frustrating situation all season long from a fantasy standpoint.
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