RADIO
The annual All-Star break offers fantasy baseball managers a great chance to assess and revamp their rosters for the stretch run. With both the fantasy and real-life trade deadlines looming, this stage of the season signifies one of the last key opportunities to make a potentially league-winning swap.
These buy-low picks consider a combination of statistic discrepancies on Statcast as well as prospective upcoming deadline moves. Many of these players probably required significant capital in most spring drafts, which can also indicate an underachiever.
I experienced some success in calling out buy-low candidates with this method earlier this year, viewing Josh Naylor as such back in late-May. He hit for a .235 BA and .692 OPS across his initial 47 games (179 plate appearances). Since positive regression treated him with a six-RBI blowup on May 31, Naylor is batting .375 with a .928 OPS over his last 31 contests (136 PAs). Let's see if we can find more situations like this using a similar approach.
Top Fantasy Baseball Buy-Low Candidates
Keibert Ruiz - C, Washington Nationals
What kind of buy-low article would it be without arguably baseball’s unluckiest hitter in 2023, Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz. The former Los Angeles Dodgers top prospect represented to co-centerpiece of 2021's Max Scherzer/Trea Turner swap. However, Ruiz hasn’t made much noise with the bat since getting a full-time opportunity in Washington. The 24-year-old is hitting a weak .226 with nine home runs and 31 RBI over 283 at-bats this year. Ruiz is at least shining with a pristine 9.2% strikeout rate.
The xBA and xSLG are potent enough to support Ruiz's buy-low case in deeper-mixed and possibly even dynasty formats. The switch-hitter remains rostered in just about one-third of Yahoo leagues, so he could certainly be available in more shallow settings. At an annually thin position to find talent, fantasy managers could do a lot worse than take a flier on Ruiz off waiver wires ahead of the action. The backstop is averaging 10.1 ABs per SO this season, which is second in the NL. The leash is long for Ruiz here on a rebuilding Nats team.
Ryan Mountcastle - 1B, Baltimore Orioles
It looked as if 2022 Statcast darling Ryan Mountcastle was initially delivering as a popular '23 buy-low choice after a nine-RBI detonation on April 11. Though, the 26-year-old is hitting a dull .217 with a .613 OPS, six homers, and 22 RBI over 50 games (198 ABs) thereafter. Lo and behold, we have Mountcastle once again popping as a Statcast favorite this year while hitting a career-low .230 with a .691 OPS covering 243 ABs this campaign.
The right-handed slugger has suffered the consequences of the Camden Yards left-field wall being pushed back before '22. This factor is likely what Statcast is heavily weighing to turn out the largest difference in SLG and xSLG of any batter. Mountcastle recently returned from a month-long vertigo bout, causing him to be dropped in some shallower formats. With the sixth-fastest average sprint speed among first basemen, Mountcastle owns five-category fantasy upside on top of possible regression in average and slugging.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Now feels like an opportune juncture to aggressively pursue Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in fantasy trade talks, fresh off his Home Run Derby crown. A 16-game homerless drought from June 5 to 21 holds the 24-year-old's ranking in check, sitting just outside the top 10 of first baseman in Yahoo roto leagues. Guerrero is hitting a more customary .271 and .881 OPS with four big flies and 16 RBI over his last 15 games (59 ABs) since ending that dry spell on June 23. The slugger's Statcast page suggests he should be absolutely raking.
Guerrero signifies as good a bet as any to be fantasy’s best hitter the rest of the way with a career-high and 98th-percentile 56.3% hard-hit rate. We may not see the three-time All-Star's cost reach a much cheaper level than it's at right now. There’s plenty of room for improvement here with Guerrero's 3.4% home run rate this season inferior to his career 4.6% figure. I’m pushing chips in on the former Silver Slugger making a strong push as fantasy’s second-half AL MVP in Toronto’s star-studded offense.
Tim Anderson - SS, Chicago White Sox
I’m probably not the first salesperson you've seen try and advertise Tim Anderson as a buy-low proposition. The 30-year-old is dragging an unfathomable 142/27 ground ball/fly ball ratio. That’s 5.26 grounders per fly ball for the mathematicians. For a frame of reference on simply how inscrutable this feat is, DJ LeMahieu is the next worst on the AL list with a nearly halved 2.48 figure. If there's ever an appropriate time to believe so, Anderson just has to be going through the motions with such an extreme lack of authority with the bat.
A change of scenery seems inevitable at this stage with Anderson himself seeming to express apathy towards his White Sox future. While the former batting title holder doesn’t identify as a power hitter, Anderson generated a solid (for a leadoff man) 3.0% home run rate between 2016 and '22. I like the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Los Angeles Angels as some possible destinations for the two-time All-Star's services. Anywhere but the South Side sounds good at this point, admittedly.
Josh Bell - 1B, Cleveland Guardians
As previously mentioned, fellow slugging first baseman Josh Naylor has already embraced his positive regression. Perhaps now it’s Josh Bell’s turn. The 30-year-old has not supplied the Guardians with the big bat they had envisioned when signing him this past offseason. Cleveland anchors dead last in home runs (60) and Bell’s carry-over of a '22 second-half swoon serves as a big liability. The 2022 Silver Slugger is slashing a soft .215/.318/.343 with 13 HR and 63 RBI in 145 games since returning from the '22 All-Star break.
Bell is maintaining a stay in the heart of the Guardians batting order despite the letdown with their severe lack of better alternatives. The switch-hitter is starting to become notorious for half-season disappearances and re-emergences. Pre-All-Star break 2019, he hit .302 with a .648 SLG before batting .233 with a .429 SLG post-break. Bell then struggled during the 2021 first half before a hot finish, reversing that dynamic in '22. I’m betting on a second-half power surge for the streaky Bell with no resistance behind him jousting for designated-hitter playing time.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
