Defying Logic - Scrubs Over Stars for Week 10

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Not only have we heard this argument on podcasts, websites and among fellow fantasy football players, but we go through it in our heads every single week. Hopefully by this point in the season, you have established a bench with some worthy starters and are afforded the privilege of even considering such a blasphemous concept as sitting one of your studs. Well, as I clicked on the Keenan Allen WR tag in Yahoo to place him on my bench, I thought the topic was worth bringing up again.

Are there matchups that justify benching one of your studs? Are there matchups that justify playing one of your bench players instead? There is no exact science because there are many other variables involved in these decisions such as the health of said players, the health of opposing defenses and the weather. In regard to those variables being for or against each of these decisions, I say that ultimately you are your own GM and at some point you have to take that role seriously because this is real life and a real job that yields real rewards like bragging amongst friends, enjoying football Sundays and possibly a life-changing windfall of money in the realm of $300.00.

But for now, let’s assume those variables are constant and get to the nuts and bolts of these decisions and how you should make them now, at this current moment in this current NFL season because that’s all that counts. Let's investigate the good old "don't bench your studs" theory and see how we can defy that logic for Week 10.

Editor's note: Purchase any NFL Lineup Optimizer pass (including daily DFS cheat sheets), and you also get access to NBA and NHL Optimizers and DFS cheat sheets.

 

Elite Players vs. Matchup-Based Plays

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense vs. Wide Receivers

Let’s get back to my decision to sit Keenan Allen this week. I genuinely feel that Jacksonville is the new Denver (on defense) and I’d rather give someone else a shot at glory from my bench. Dare I say that I even think there are better streaming options than starting a WR against Jacksonville, such as Marquise Goodwin, Tre McBride, Adam Humphries, Cole Beasley or Terrence Williams? Oh my, what a potty mouth I have!

I may have gone too far, but I was just trying to prove the point that some good matchups, like 49ers @ Giants, Bucs @ Jets or Bears @ Packers help make the case that some of the aforementioned players can and will outperform studs playing Jacksonville. I learned this lesson last week as I rolled out A.J. Green only to see him fail as a WR1, UFC Fighter and an intellectual; AJ, there is no way to effectively punch a man in the helmet.

Jacksonville has the staunchest defense against WRs and allows 21.2 points per game, which is over two points less than the Steelers in second place, the largest Standard Deviation on the list. According to PlayerProfiler.com (@Fantasy_Mansion @rotounderworld) Jacksonville has two of the top three cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, which means your stud is doomed on both sides of the field. Lastly, I’ll state that the same dynamic holds true for QBs against Jacksonville. You may have a shot with mobile QBs like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson or Cam Newton, but you’ll need to temper your expectations.

 

San Francisco 49ers Defense vs. Running Backs

Start your running backs against the 49ers and thank me later. The 49ers are giving up 30.5 points per game to opposing RB, which is over three points better than the second-worst Rams, again providing the largest standard deviation on the list. This is not only a byproduct of having a bad run defense, but even more-so a byproduct of being a bad team that provides positive game script to opposing teams.

But here is the big caveat--Jimmy Garoppolo is coming and he’s coming sooner than later. San Fran has a bye next week and I believe Jimmy G will be the starter after that bye! Jimmy G only needs to be decent for the 49ers to be a better team and to ruin that unbelievable game flow I spoke of for opposing teams. I’m sure they will still be a great team to start RBs against, but I don’t believe it will be this ideal. So, what does that mean? I am saying that everyone needs to bow in honor of the great @OrleansDarkwa in Week 10! I’ll even double down on my point and tell you to start Wayne Gallman over the likes of Kenyan Drake, Ameer Abdullah or Doug Martin who have tough matchups.

As for other teams and other matchups, it really is a balancing act of all variables at play including your team and who you are playing. These are really the two matchups that I feel confident in advising for or against.

 

To recap: For Week 10, sit Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, House of Tyrell Williams (shout out to @RealTalkRaph) and Philip Rivers unless you are totally desperate. Play Orleans Darkwa and root for the Giants!

Thanks for reading my article suckas. Check me out @BrettMitchellFB on Twitta...

 

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