The first few guys you take in any fantasy draft are supposed to be your rocks. If their production falls off, it is easy to find yourself in a hole that can be difficult to climb out of. Do you hang on to your studs and bank on a rebound, or sell for pennies on the dollar to salvage something on your investment?

Both Trea Turner and Manny Machado have forced fantasy owners to confront this conundrum in 2017. In prior years, you would have been forced to guess whether a poor BABIP or HR/FB was a small sample fluke or a harbinger of things to come. Now, we have Statcast data to get a clearer picture of a player's contact quality. In theory, we should be able to use this new data along with other peripheral metrics to determine the proper course of action with both players. Let's get started!

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Trea Turner (2B/SS/OF, WAS) 99% Owned

Turner turned heads with his .342/.370/.567 line and 33 steals in roughly half of a season last year, but his current production (.244/.274/.429 with five homers and 11 SB) is doing anything but. A .282 BABIP and 3.7% BB% are the primary drivers of the disappointing performance. Will they improve?

Turner's disappointing BABIP is the result of two things: a cratering LD% (25.2% last year to 18% this) and less productive ground balls (.232 BABIP vs. .387). LD% is a fluky stat likely to settle in between the two extremes, so let's focus on the grounders. Turner is still fast, so he should be able to beat out more grounders than the average player. Turner's exit velocity on ground balls is virtually unchanged (86 mph last year, 86.7 this season), so it's not a quality of contact issue. Last year's .387 BABIP was absurd, but Turner's true talent BABIP on ground balls is probably around .300. He'll start getting more hits soon.

Turner also boasts a very strong eye (27.1% chase rate), so he is willing to take any walks available to him. Walking Turner is effectively a double though, so pitchers go out of their way to avoid issuing ball four to him. Turner could change this equation by developing a consistent power stroke to keep pitchers honest, and he might be working on doing so.

Turner's HR/FB has predictably fallen from last year's inflated 16.7% rate to a more reasonable 11.4%. Turner has continued to hit for some power by putting more balls into the air (FB% of 36.1% against 31.7% last year), but he isn't a real power threat yet. That "yet" is important, as Turner has considerably improved his average exit velocity on airborne baseballs (92.7 mph last year, 95.7 mph this year). His new mark is 27th in all of baseball (min. 100 balls in play), suggesting power potential that no one thought he had. His pull rate on fly balls is down (26.9% last season, 18.2% this), but Turner has some power upside if it goes back up.

Turner has only been caught stealing once this season, so his steals are down only because he is having a hard time reaching base. If he starts getting the infield singles his legs should grant him, steals and runs should accompany the increased average. Add in his power upside, and you get a guy who should be taken in the first round for years to come.

Verdict: Champ

 
Manny Machado (3B/SS, BAL) 99% Owned

Machado is hitting .225/.312/.444 with 10 HR this season, numbers that fall far short of first round production. Like Turner, the problem is a low BABIP caused by a lack of line drives (20% LD% last year, 12.1% this) that should correct itself with time. Unlike Turner, the few liners Machado has hit have also been underwhelming (.529 BABIP against .696 career). Is this a random blip or a troubling sign for the future?

Exit velocity suggests random blip. Machado's airborne batted balls are averaging 98.2 mph, up from last year's 94.8 mph and good for fifth in MLB. His grounders also leave the bat in a hurry (91.2 mph), again besting last year's mark (88.4 mph) with the third-best velocity in the league. It is logical to forecast positive regression in his ground ball BABIP as a result (.250 vs. .262 career). Machado is murdering the baseball every time he hits it, so there is no reason to suspect his current batted ball production to continue.

Maybe he's having a hard time hitting the ball? That's not it either, as Machado is displaying the best plate discipline of his career. His current BB% of 10.9% would be a personal best, as would the 28.3% chase rate supporting it. Machado has been less aggressive in the zone (last year's Z-Swing% of 72.3% is down to 68.3%) to be more patient outside of it, but his current rate is in line with his career norms (68.2%). Machado's 19.3% K-rate and 10.9% SwStr% are also perfectly reasonable for a slugger, so there is no cause for alarm here.

His HR/FB is where it should be (15.9%, 16.5% last year) while his FB% is up (45% vs. 42.7% last year), so his power game remains in place. Machado is popping up too often (IFFB% of 15.9%), but this has always been his greatest weakness at the plate (14.6% career IFFB%). He has succeeded in spite of it before, so there is no reason to think he cannot continue to do so.

Machado has two swipes in three attempts, surpassing his zero from last year. Still, it looks like the speed component of his profile is gone for good. He is also yet to play a game at SS, possibly making him 3B-only again after this season. When a slugger's lack of speed and positional versatility register as his greatest fantasy flaws, you are probably looking at a first-round bat.

Verdict: Champ

 

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