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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Las Vegas Raiders.
With the addition of former New England Patriots teammates Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers but the subtraction of Darren Waller, what can the Raiders do this season?
Below, you'll find a breakout candidate, a bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Raiders based on the current ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2023.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Jakobi Meyers
2019 undrafted wide receiver Jakobi Meyers landed his first substantial payday (three years, $33 million) with the Raiders this offseason. He reunites with head coach Josh McDaniels from their Patriots days. The 26-year-old previously served as a stabilizing presence within a Pats receiving corps devoid of much pass-catching talent. Meyers transitions into a complementary piece alongside superstar Davante Adams after acting as New England’s default No. 1 wideout.
Despite the theoretical relegation, Meyers figures to step into a more prosperous role in a pass-heavier offense than New England's. The slot man's skill set supposes to fit with new game-managing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's tendencies. Meyers could venture onto the outside more, with Hunter Renfrow monopolizing slot snaps. This bodes well for Meyers' floor/ceiling combination.
With Darren Waller’s exit, Meyers nestles himself into a role that afforded Waller a 7.92 target quality rating last season, per PlayerProfiler. This figure combines catchable targets with the average depth of target to determine its grade. Meyers was productive across the board last season, yielding at least 240 receiving yards when targeted at short, medium, and deep depths. The fourth-year receiver generated a 117.1 passer rating per target (eighth among WRs).
Operating alongside Adams relieves the pressure of fulfilling a No. 1 role, which the undrafted Meyers unfairly embodied throughout his New England career. The Raiders chose a wideout in the third round of the NFL Draft, but it was special teams merchant Tre Tucker. Meyers should be drafted in the later rounds of 10-team leagues as a WR3/4 with WR2 upside. In something of a breakout in 2022, he tripled the number of touchdowns (six) he scored over the previous three years combined.
Fantasy Football Bust: Michael Mayer
After coming off the NFL Draft board with an early second-round pick, tight end Michael Mayer profiles quite similarly to young versions of Zach Ertz and Hunter Henry. The 22-year-old possesses undistinguished athletic tools but was highly productive in college. This characteristic was enough to rank him as one of 2023's top positional prospects, much like Ertz and Henry before him.
During Ertz's rookie season, he split playing time with the less talented but more experienced Brent Celek. It wasn't until the next few years that Ertz began his development into a Pro Bowler.
While Henry was moderately productive in his first year, he generated an unsustainable 22.2% touchdown rate. During his rookie year, Henry shared snaps with Antonio Gates, who was in his 14th year. Henry was able to fully spread his wings as the starting tight end only after Gates had left.
This parallel is inferred as Mayer perhaps takes a similar approach while sharing work with the incumbent Austin Hooper. With that said, the 28-year-old hasn't logged more than 34 receiving yards per game in any season since 2020. While he appears to be beatable competition, Hooper holds the seniority advantage over the rookie. Mayer's unimpressive athleticism remains a cause for trepidation; he was PlayerProfiler's second-lowest-graded athlete of all time at his position among 465 tight ends.
Mayer's 2023 fantasy value will likely come down to his red zone role and ability to hit paydirt. Fantasy managers should deem a 50% snap share as successful for the first-year pass catcher, but Mayer will likely be fourth on the target pecking order for Week 1. Treat the Notre Dame product as a TD-or-bust TE2 prospect. Instead, I'm turning to Taysom Hill, Noah Fant, and Hayden Hurst if picking from this late-round TE tree.
Fantasy Football Lock: Davante Adams
Perennial Pro Bowler Davante Adams instilled some fear into fantasy managers in 2022 after experiencing a considerable QB change. The 30-year-old moved away from his harmonious eight-year connection with future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers to middling pocket passer Derek Carr. Adams showed no ill effects from the presumptive signal-caller downgrade, though.
Adams' fantasy ceiling was higher than ever, yielding a career season in targets (180), yards per reception (15.2), and air yards (2,130). It lends credence to the notion that the two-time receiving touchdown leader may be QB-proof. Adams has registered a 30.3% target share or better in each campaign since 2019.
The three-time All-Pro's efficiency may have taken a tumble after posting the lowest catch rate (55.6%) since his rookie year; however, that was more or less a side effect of the enormous workload. Adams piled up 124 receiving yards or more in seven games last year but fell shy of at least 37 yards in five contests. The target-hogging Adams did find the end zone through the air 14 times, the most in the league.
After finishing as fantasy's overall WR2 in half-PPR settings, Adams enters his second year in Las Vegas with a risk-averse QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. Adams' ADP resides in the middle of the second round despite carrying the most unrealized air yards (1,142) last year. It would be foolish to believe that he will maintain such vast air yards, considering Garoppolo has cautiously averaged less than 7.4 air yards per attempt each year since 2019.
Adams finished third among WRs in yards after catch (528) in 2022, a trait that could still mesh seamlessly with Garoppolo's game-managing play style. Adams should be regarded as a firm, high-floor WR1 with the QB turnover and diminished pass-catching competition following Darren Waller's departure. The fantasy stalwart is riding a six-year streak of ranking as the WR8 or better in PPR leagues.
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