RADIO
Spring training is officially underway, which means baseball season is upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already begun dealing with tough draft position decisions.
The outfield position is deep as always, but selecting the best outfielder for ADP value is not always an easy task.
In this article, we will take a look at two top-20 outfielders who are going very close together in early drafts: Kansas City Royals' Whit Merrifield (ADP: 46, OF16) and Tampa Bay Rays' Austin Meadows (ADP: 45, OF14). These two are being drafted almost interchangeably, as noted by their ADP, but does one offer more upside and value than the other? We will take a look at each player's history and advanced metrics to determine which of the two you should take around ADP 45.
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Is Whit Worthy?
Whit Merrifield has been a steady player for the better part of the past three seasons. He has always been a reliable source of speed and average while also producing a little bit of pop. In 2019, he was selected to his first All-Star Game and put up a slash line of .302/.348/.463 with 16 HR, 74 RBI, 105 R, 45 BB, and 20 SB in 681 at-bats. It was a relatively solid season from the Royals' leadoff hitter, but how does he project heading into the 2020 season? Looking at his previous performances, as well as his advanced metrics, should help us answer this question.
The first reason people gravitate towards Merrifield is due to his typically elite stolen base skills. From 2017-2018, Merrifield stole 78 total bases and was in the top five percent of the league in each season. 2019 was not the same for Merrifield as he only managed to steal 20 bases while playing in all 162 games for the Royals. Aside from only stealing 20 bases, Merrifield was caught stealing 10 times, which ranked him worst in the league. The drop off in stolen bases should be quite alarming as it is more than twice as few as he had in 2018 when he stole 45 bases. While Merrifield has only been in the league for three full seasons, he will be 31 entering the 2020 season, which makes you wonder if his ability to steal bases will continue to dwindle.
Aside from being a threat on the basepaths, Merrifield has also been solid at getting base knocks and hitting for some slight power. Taking a look at some of his plate discipline metrics should help determine what to expect in 2020. In 2019, Merrifield hit .302. He was able to do this despite having the lowest zone contact (85.8%) of his career. Merrifield also did this despite having his worst whiff rate in the previous three seasons at 20.1%. The reason he was still able to hit for a solid average despite these metrics is because of a .350 BABIP, which was 10 points higher than his career average of .340. If Merrifield continues to reduce his zone contact and increase his whiff rate in 2020, but fails to have a fortunate BABIP, we could see solid regression in his overall batting average.
Merrifield also managed to hit 16 home runs in 2019, which was the second-highest total of his career. He was able to do this despite a barrel rate of 4.3%, which was his lowest rate since 2016. He also managed just an 86.4 mph exit velocity, .435 xSLG, and a 28.9% hard-hit rate. Each of these fell below his career norms. While it isn't surprising that Merrifield lacks in the way of power metrics, it is hard to find where his true value lies heading into 2020 if he isn't able to pick up some power to replace the stolen bases he lost.
Meadows Moving Up?
Austin Meadows was the key piece in a 2018 trade deadline deal that sent Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Pittsburgh Pirates. 2019 was his first full season in the big leagues, and he did not disappoint as he slashed .291/.364/.534 with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 83 R, 54 BB, and 12 SB. This was a solid stat line from the youngster, but can we expect him to continue to progress heading into 2020? A look into his advanced power metrics, as well as looking into his player profile, should help us determine that.
The fact that Meadows hit 33 home runs last year may be a bit surprising, but he has always profiled as someone that would eventually hit for power in the big leagues. He had seasons in the minors where he hit for power, just not quite as prolific as he did in 2019, but the metrics seem to back up the performance. Meadows put up a 12.5% barrel rate, 90.4 mph exit velocity, .547 xSLG, and a 42.9% hard-hit rate. The xSLG he posted was especially impressive as it ranked him in the top five percent in all of baseball, a tremendous feat for such a young player. He also posted a 9.1% walk rate, which helps explain his .364 on-base percentage. He struck out 22.2% of the time, which is not all that troubling for a player in his first full season, especially one that put up a stat line like Meadows.
Aside from the power metrics, Meadows also added some speed as he stole 12 bases. While this may come as a surprise to some, he showed this ability in the minors as well. Throughout 457 games in the minors, Meadows stole a total of 66 bases. While this may not seem like many, it averages out to approximately 23 stolen bases per 162 games played. As he gets more and more comfortable at the big league level, we could easily see him increase his stolen base totals, and 20 stolen bases are certainly not out of the question for 2020, either.
The Verdict
After reviewing each player's past performances and metrics, it appears clear that Austin Meadows is the better outfielder to select. While Merrifield has provided major speed in the past, his age and ability to run with efficiency could be catching up to him, which would lead to a down season in 2020. Meanwhile, Meadows is just scratching the surface with his potential and provides a solid power/speed combo that should return plenty of value to fantasy players in 2020.
