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Prepare for lift-off, RotoBallers! It’s the most wonderful time of the year for fantasy baseball managers. We’re ready to shift gears from the Hot Stove as the cold winter days warm to spring training and Opening Day baseball, which means it's draft season, and also known as the best season!
These guys didn't the memo when it comes to lifting off. Defined by MLB.com, “launch angle represents the vertical angle at which the ball leaves a player's bat after being struck.” In layman’s terms, we want our hitters to hit a sweet spot. We don’t want them driving the ball on the ground often, but we don’t want them popping up, either. MLB.com also defines the sweet spot as 8-32 degrees off the bat, which is the happy medium between our favorite kinds of contact: line drives and fly balls.
This tool tends to be more valuable in evaluating pitchers, but it tells us about the tendencies of hitters, too. A high average launch angle indicates a fly-ball hitter, and a low average launch angle is likely a ground-ball hitter. On average, fly-ball hitters generally drive in more runs than ground-ball hitters, with power hitters wanting launch angles closer to fly balls and contact hitters seeking more line drives. Let’s explore some launch angle fallers and why it may or may not be important for 2024.
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Mike Trout - OF, Los Angeles Angels
2022 Launch Angle: 24.6 | 2023 Launch Angle: 19.3
Does this mean that the sky is falling for Mike Trout? Not exactly, my friends. Trout led Statcast's qualifiers in 2022 with a stratospheric 24.6-degree launch angle, hence the reason for the fall. There's not much reason for concern here, as Trout nailed the sweet spot 38.3% of the time in 2023 and ranked 16th with a 19.3-degree average launch angle. That's not to mention despite the three-time MVP's .263/.367/.490 triple-slash line producing career lows, Trout was still as great as ever last season.
The biggest red flag for Trout in 2024 has nothing to do with his ability on the field; he's going to rack up plenty of counting stats besides stolen bases. Health is our main worry since Trout has played in only 237 of a possible 486 games since 2021. While Trout is someone to fade at his 48 NFBC ADP in head-to-head fantasy leagues, where we're prioritizing floor over ceiling in terms of availability, I love the idea of gambling on the 32-year-old nine-time Silver Slugger in rotisserie settings.
Nolan Arenado - 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
2022: 21. 7 | 2023: 16.9
Although Nolan Arenado was an All-Star for the eighth time in his last nine seasons, his 2023 noticed a precipitous drop-off from an MVP-level 2022. Arenado witnessed an equally steep decline in launch angle as well, failing to hit for much authority with a subpar 38.1% hard-hit rate and 24.0% line-drive rate, his lowest figures since the truncated 2020 year that many stars struggled in. The 10-time Gold Glover has always been a defensive-minded player, but Arenado's going to be a safe bet at third base in fantasy as he is every year.
Arenado rode a rollercoaster a season ago, first watching his OPS dip below .590 with a .233 batting average through his initial 29 contests. Over the subsequent 69 outings, however, he hit a more characteristic .311 with a .972 OPS before closing the year in his early-season form with a .220/.272/.322 slash line across his final 177 at-bats. Although we shouldn't be out on Arenado's 77 NFBC ADP as he enters his age-32 campaign, the market might be struggling to adapt to his St. Louis Cardinals numbers versus his inflated Colorado Rockies totals.
Jose Altuve - 2B, Houston Astros
2022: 16.1 | 2023: 11.4
There might actually be some legitimate concern surrounding Jose Altuve from a fantasy perspective in 2024. His 29 NFBC ADP wouldn't tell you that after Altuve shrugged off a broken thumb from 2023's World Baseball Classic, slashing .311/.393/.522 with 17 home runs, 51 RBI, and 76 runs scored across 410 plate appearances. After tapping into his power during 2021 and 2022, Altuve's 11.4-degree launch angle more or less mirrored the result from his days of leading the American League in hits for four consecutive years.
While Altuve stole 14 bags in just 90 games, his baserunning value (27) and sprint speed (38) imply the former AL stolen base leader overachieved in this category. On top of that, Altuve has submitted career lows in hard-hit rate in back-to-back seasons, and he logged Statcast's worst difference in BA and xBA (.245), second worst in wOBA (.393) and xwOBA (.331), and third worst in SLG and xSLG (.419). Having already netted a new five-year extension to become "an Astro for life", Altuve is an easy shy-away candidate in Round 3.
Kyle Tucker - OF, Houston Astros
2022: 19.0 | 2023: 14.8
Kyle Tucker just seems to get better and better every year. What didn't get better, however, was a 14.8-degree launch angle, the lowest of his career. You wouldn't know that by the looks of his robust .284/.369/.517 slash line from 2023, so it's not something we should be concerned about. Tucker also surprisingly struggled defensively following a Gold Glove 2022, but his bat yielded an AL-high 112 RBI and the first Silver Slugger award of his career.
The 27-year-old former No. 5 overall pick checked every box one could ask for in 2023. Even if an unlikely dip in power comes to fruition, Tucker has cemented himself as a five-category fantasy superstar. As the projected Houston Astros cleanup man for 2024, Tucker will be frequently set up to swing for the fences. Covering 43 games started as the No. 4 hitter last year, the two-time All-Star slashed .301/.386/.503 with seven long balls, 12 two-baggers, 30 RBI, and seven thefts.
Tucker is already in midseason form over 14 Grapefruit League outings, slashing .297/.381/.486 with two big flies, six RBI, and six runs scored across 42 PAs.
Ryan Mountcastle- 1B, Baltimore Orioles
2022: 15.9 | 2023: 12.0
A Statcast darling entering 2023, Ryan Mountcastle was a popular drop candidate after delivering a weak .227 BA and .686 OPS over his first 60 contests. Following a month-long bout with vertigo, the former first-rounder returned with a vengeance during his closing 209 PAs, slashing a potent .326/.407/.492 with seven big flies, nine doubles, 29 RBI, and 30 runs scored. If that version of Mountcastle shows up for the Baltimore Orioles in 2024, he'll smash his late-round price tag (225 NFBC ADP).
After playing a part-time role in a loaded O's offense down the stretch, Mountcastle's defensive shortcomings will continue to have him pressed for ABs, and he isn't likely to open the year in a premium lineup spot. Even so, the 27-year-old carries legitimate five-category upside at a position that's difficult to find SBs (73rd-percentile sprint sprint in '23). Mountcastle will need every bit of his 12.0-degree launch angle if he wants his .503 xSLG to materialize at Camden Yards, with a deep left field that can be hard on right-handed sluggers.
Lars Nootbaar - OF, St. Louis Cardinals
2022: 10.7 | 2023: 7.2
After concluding 2022 with a power surge (9 HR in final 38 GS), Lars Nootbaar fully emerged in 2023 and settled in as the St. Louis Cardinals' everyday leadoff batter against right-handed pitching. While he was still highly effective out of the three-hole, Nootbaar slashed .277/.363/.454 with 10 bombs, 25 RBI, 48 runs scored, and six pilfers across 309 PAs while batting first. The 26-year-old on-base machine's launch angle has descended in each of his first three seasons, though.
If he's going to continue contributing to other areas besides BA, R, and SBs, Nootbaar is going to need to hit the sweet spot at greater than a mere 30.8% clip to compensate for a weak 37.8% hard-hit rate. Super-utility man Brendan Donovan is back in the fold for the Cards this year, so Nootbaar will be batting with him for leadoff ABs all year long. He should score lots of runs when healthy, but Nootbaar isn't a must-stash player in 12-team 5x5 mixed leagues while on the injured list to begin the campaign.
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