RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Thanks for checking out Power Pivots, where we discuss some alternative player options for DraftKings GPP's. Week 5 was a tough one for me personally and I never found a lineup combination that I truly loved. Unfortunately, bad weeks are a part of DFS and are something we have to learn to get through. I know I beat you guys over the head with it every week, but I must continue to stress a "process over results" mentality. Meaning, if we work hard on our research and thought process, the results will take care of themselves in the long run.
It's still early in the week as I write this column, but I feel safe in saying that there will be lots of DFS attention on the Atlanta vs Tampa Bay matchup. It carries the highest Over/Under of the week at 57.5 and is obviously a juicy spot for fantasy goodness. While we won't be discussing it exclusively, I will highlight some pivot options outside of the Atl/TB game that can offer us some nice leverage in large field tourneys. I want to stress that I'm not recommending a full fade of Atl/TB, but will touch on some options that you might want to use in order to differentiate your lineup in a few spots. Thanks for spending some time with me this week, let's dive in!
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
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Week 6 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Matt Ryan ($6,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 12.56% *UPDATED: 13.50%
POWER PIVOT: Jared Goff ($6,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7.43% *UPDATED: 8.41%
This is almost a "too good to be true" spot for Matt Ryan. He is in a great situation this week against a terrible Tampa Bay defense. However, Ryan is already atop early ownership projections and I expect him to only gain steam throughout the week. He will be the mega-chalk by Sunday. One option to differentiate at QB is by pivoting to the other side of the Atl/TB game and going with Jameis Winston at $5,800. While that is certainly a viable strategy, I'm not sure how much leverage Winston offers, as he's currently projected to be the second-highest owned QB behind Ryan.
For those willing to venture outside of Atlanta, let's head out west and give Jared Goff a look. Goff is the signal caller for what is one of, if not the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The Rams are third in the league in scoring, averaging over 34 points per game with Goff performing like the number one draft pick that he was, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards per game at 337.2. Sean McVay has unleashed Goff this year by giving him ample opportunity to make plays which have allowed him to average 33.2 pass attempts per game.
At first glance, Goff draws a tough matchup against Denver this week. However, as we've discussed in this very column, Denver's defense isn't the same unit that we have seen in the past and are 24th in yards allowed per pass through their first five games and have given up at least 27 points in their last three. Goff should be able to attack this defense and we know that McVay isn't afraid to keep the pedal to the medal late in games.
SATURDAY UPDATE: We've actually seen Jameis Winston leapfrog Matt Ryan in popularity, with Winston's current ownership projection at 16.19%. It seems that most players are electing to take advantage of the $1K discount that Winston offers. Goff is holding fairly steady at around 7-8% and I still like him as a leverage play for those that want to go outside of the Atl/TB matchup. I don't have much interest in any QB outside of the Ryan, Winston, Goff trio, unless you are multi-entering and want to grab some specific game stacks.
RB CHALK: James Conner ($7,700)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 22.51% *UPDATED: 14.75%
POWER PIVOT: Marshawn Lynch ($5,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 3.50% *UPDATED: 4.68%
James Conner regained some of his Week 1 shine last week against an Atlanta defense that would surrender 22 fantasy points to my mom if she played running back. So, while I understand why he's a popular option this week, I don't know that I'm willing to pay $7,700 for a chalky Conner in a tough division game. I would love to once again pick on Atlanta this week, but the Bucs backfield is an absolute fantasy wasteland and Warrick Dunn's not walking through that door.
Instead, I've got my eyes on a #revengegame with a #squeakywheel narrative. Marshawn Lynch will be facing off against his old team this week when the Raiders and the Seahawks square off in London. It's not as if Lynch ever needs the motivation to run hard, but I look for him to beast a little harder than usual against Pete Carroll and the boys. Much like we discussed with Denver earlier, this is not the "Legion of Boom" Seahawks defense anymore. They have struggled to stop the run this season and rank 26th in yards allowed per rush.
This is a prime bounce-back spot for Lynch, who saw his usage take a big hit last week when the Raiders found themselves trailing by a large margin early against the Chargers. After seeing 20-plus touches in three straight games, Lynch only touched the ball 11 times in last week's disappointing outing. This is probably taking a little walk down narrative street, but we also saw Oakland NOT give the ball to Beast Mode on the goal line last week, instead opting to throw a Seattle-esque interception from the 2-yard line. I don't think Jon Gruden will get cute this week and if Oakland has a goal-line opportunity this week, I'd bet a lot of money that Marshawn Lynch will get the ball.
Putting all the psychological reasoning aside, Lynch is a very solid play on paper. Vegas has just a three-point spread on this one and I look for this game to stay relatively close, which should drive Lynch's usage back up to around 20-22 touches, with those touches coming against a defense that has struggled mightily against the run. He offers a solid blend of floor and ceiling in a sneaky good matchup.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Lots to discuss at RB. Conner has slid down in ownership projection. Lynch is still drawing little interest, but on the other side of the Oak/Sea game Chris Carson at $4,400 is gaining steam as a value option. T.J. Yeldon has went to the top of ownership projections with Leonard Fournette ruled out yet again and is currently pegged to be around 25% owned. Devonta Freeman has been ruled out, which makes Tevin Coleman a very viable option at just $5,400 in a game with the week's highest projected point total and also brings Ito Smith into the conversation as a cheap dart throw at only $3,100. The Jets RB situation is worth monitoring, as Isaiah Crowell is shaping up to be a game-time decision. Bilal Powell would become a legit value option at $4,500 if Crowell is ruled out.
WR CHALK: Julio Jones ($7,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 30.51% *UPDATED: 33.30%
POWER PIVOT: Chris Godwin ($4,400)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 6.26% *UPDATED: 8.69%
Wide Receiver is shaping up to be a position of huge importance this week. Julio Jones finds himself in a dream matchup against a horrible Tampa Bay Bucs secondary in what's projected to be a shootout. However, he will be MASSIVELY OWNED this week on DraftKings, as he is ridiculously priced at just $7,900. This combination of price and matchup should lead to Jones being not just the highest owned WR, but the highest owned player overall on the slate.
I'm currently going back and forth on how strongly I want to fade Julio, which is really scary in this situation. I will probably end up compromising and using him in some lineups while leaving him out of others. What I am interested in doing is gaining exposure to this game, while also gaining some leverage on the field. It's tough to do this week, but Tampa Bay WR Chris Godwin is the type of play that I'm looking for.
Godwin offers a path to gaining exposure to the ATL/TB game without breaking the bank and is currently projected at just 6% ownership. The second-year wideout is an explosive talent who has played well this season. Goodwin has found the end zone three times in four games and his average of 12.8 DraftKings points per game was brought down by a dud in Chicago two weeks ago when he notched only 4.2 points in his worst game of the season. Before the two target stinker against the Bears, Godwin had seen a steady increase in usage in each game, with target counts of 4-6-10 over the first three weeks of the season.
I expect a happy medium between the season-high of 10 targets and the season-low of 2. In what should be a pass-happy game script, Goodwin should garner somewhere in the 5-7 target range. His floor is low, but I love the upside at $4,400. We could also look at DeSean Jackson who is in a similar spot, but sits at a hard-to-swallow $5,900. Atlanta's injuries on defense are well documented. The Falcons are near the bottom of the league in all defensive statistical categories, including total yards, passing yards, rush yards, and points allowed. They have struggled with getting off the field and rank dead last in the NFL in 3rd down stop %. For those that are dead-set on Julio, I really like the idea of pairing him with Godwin to gain exposure to both offenses.
SATURDAY UPDATE: This slate will revolve around Julio Jones. Julio will be the highest owned player at any position and how he performs will shape Week 6 for tons of lineups. Jones is such an interesting player this week, because he has such a wide range of possible outcomes. Does he go for 40 points and break the slate or does he have another quite game and only log 15 points? I think the most likely scenario lies somewhere in between. Other WR's in the matchup will also be popular...with Mike Evans projected to be the second-highest owned wideout at 21%. Mohamed Sanu has surged up projections and sits third at 17%, with DeSean Jackson at 13%. Our highlighted player, Chris Godwin still looks to be the sleeper of the bunch at just 8% projected ownership. There has also been surprisingly little chatter about Atlanta rookie Calvin Ridley, who could offer tons of leverage for those that want to pivot away from Julio. I think there are two paths that we can take in this situation...those that want to play Julio should pair him with some combination of Evans/Godwin/Jackson and no other Falcons receivers. Those that are looking to fade Jones should pivot to Ridley and/or Sanu and pair with a combo of Evans and Jackson/Godwin. Outside of the Atl/TB WR's...Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are very strong leverage plays. Chester Rogers has received 11 targets in Indy's last two games and with TY Hilton out again offers a really solid floor at just $4,500. I probably won't personally have Keke Coutee in my lineups, but he's a viable option at $4,600 for those looking to save salary.
TE CHALK: Austin Hooper ($3,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 21.11% *UPDATED: 21.02%
POWER PIVOT: David Njoku ($3,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 6.15% *UPDATED: 10.69%
Let me introduce you to our old friend recency bias. Austin Hooper popped up last week with a nice game against Pittsburgh, catching nine of 12 targets for 77 yards and 16.7 DraftKings points. It appears folks are ready to hop on the Hooper bandwagon this week, as he currently sits atop TE ownership projections with a massive 21% expected share. I'm sorry, but I just can't do it. There are times that I'm happy to eat the chalk, but this is BAD chalk. If Hooper has a monster game, I'm willing to live with it. This just screams "point chasing" and I'm not interested in a guy that's a TD dependent, fourth option at 21% ownership.
I'm not yet sure if David Njoku is actually good at football, but the guy is an athletic freak. He is raw, but has been getting a crash course over the last two weeks. Njoku has seen a huge usage increase since Baker Mayfield entered the starting lineup. The second-year TE led the Browns with 11 targets against the Ravens, bringing his total to 18 in the two games that Mayfield has started at QB.
Njoku draws a matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per pass. While the Chargers defense was much-hyped before the season and looked better against Oakland last week, this is not a matchup that we should fear. The Chargers are still without Joey Bosa and rank 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Mayfield's presence should continue to elevate Njoku's game and opportunities.
Unlike Hooper and Cameron Brate (another popular TE option this week), Njoku isn't touchdown dependent...though positive regression tells us that he has one coming soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see him approach 10 targets in a game that has very sneaky scoring potential. I like both his floor and upside and love that his ownership projection currently sits at about a quarter of Hooper's. There are no "safe" TE plays this week and I will be firing Njoku up.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Man...the TE position is a wasteland this week. Hooper is still holding strong as the most popular play. Njoku is gaining some momentum and sits at 10% expected ownership. Cameron Brate is expected to be popular at 14.%, but we've had a curveball thrown at us, as O.J. Howard has been practicing for the Bucs this week and is a game-time decision. There is no bailout play at TE. Paying up for Eric Ebron or Jordan Reed might raise your floor a bit, but nothing is guaranteed with those two. Pittsburgh TE Vance McDonald is a sneaky way to take advantage of recency bias after he burned so many people with a dud last week. My best advice is to say a little prayer when clicking on a TE this week.
D/ST CHALK: Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 10.79% *UPDATED: 6.96%
POWER PIVOT: LA Rams ($3,100)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 2.14% *UPDATED: 4.52%
Can't argue with the Jags in this spot, but for those of you that want to go a little against the grain, let's take a second to discuss the LA Rams. The Rams D has struggled over the last two weeks, allowing 31 points each to Minnesota and Seattle. Despite those performances, I like the Rams to bounce back this week against Denver. The Broncos offense is not a matchup that we fear.
While LA has struggled recently, we must remember that this is a very talented unit that averaged just over 13 DraftKings points per game in their first three this season. Injuries to Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters have hurt the Rams in the secondary, but Case Keenum hasn't been able to beat teams with deep throws. I don't think Keenum will have much success against Aaron Donald and company this week. This is a high upside defense that we can grab at around 2% ownership. The Rams are a great way to differentiate lineups this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE: The Chicago Bears now sit on top of the ownership projections at 12.06%. They feel like a safe play in a matchup against Miami and offer a slight discount from the Jags. I still like the Rams as a high-upside leverage play. The team that's catching my eye down the salary scale is the Colts at $2,500. The draw a matchup against rookie Jets QB Sam Darnold. Darnold played well last week, but is still turnover-prone, which should create some opportunities for the Colts solid pass rush.
