3 months agoSince winning the Sentry early in the season, Chris Kirk has been flatter than most people were expecting. However, a rough time on the greens, coupled with a few spotty weeks with the irons will do that. The good news is that the tour is hitting the point in the season that has been the best for Kirk, historically. His course history at Arnie's place has been as solid as anyone in the field without winning; in his last four starts at Bay Hill he's finished T39, T5, T8, T15 and T13. For stats, he is ranked ninth in strokes gained from tee to green (1.320), 11th in strokes gained on approach (.712), and 19th in strokes gained off the tee (.547). At $9,600 on FanDuel, he is a solid addition to any lineup.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoThe good news for Rory McIlroy is that Bay Hill has been one of his best venues. McIlroy's current form suggests he could struggle this week with how inconsistent each part of his game has been, outside of his driver. McIlroy is No. 1 off the tee but ranks outside of the top 130 in the other three major statistical categories. Bay Hill can be brutal and he has a win and six top-10 finishes so McIlroy has to hope his course history can help him get back in form.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoIf there has been a leaderboard to be on in the last five months, Sahith Theegala has more than likely been on it. Seven of his past 12 events have ended in a top-20 finish or better, including a win at the Fortinet Championship in September. Most of his success has come from his putting prowess, where Theegala ranks 18th in strokes gained putting (.655) on the season through six events played. There is also a chance that a T14 at this event a year ago could mean big things for him this week. The biggest question comes with his iron play and how much his flat stick can save him. His 72nd ranking in strokes gained on approach is somewhat inflated by two weeks of career-best ball-striking. For the strength of the field and where he is positioned in DFS formats, the Pepperdine University alum is far from the riskiest play at $9,700 on FanDuel.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoHarris English already has two top-10 finishes in six events to start 2024, and he's doing it in spite of his poor iron play. The Georgia native has lost strokes on approach in four of those six events, and in the two in which he gained, English has not eclipsed 1.0 strokes gained with the irons. The 34-year-old has had some recent success at Bay Hill, but he's outplayed the field on approach in each of those strong finishes. With the irons such a pivotal piece of the equation at the API, it makes since to steer clear of English this week despite a depressed price tag ($7,300 on DraftKings).
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoAdam Scott started off his 2024 PGA Tour season in style, placing in the top 20 in each of his three appearances in February, including an eighth-place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The Australian will now head to Bay Hill to see if can keep up his excellent ball-striking and above-average putting en route to another successful showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scott has made the cut in six of his last seven trips to this track, and while his third-place finishes came a while back, it's clear he's comfortable around Bay Hill. At just $7,500 on DraftKings, the 43-year-old will surely be a popular cash-game option this week.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoIt's a testament to how elite Scottie Scheffler's skills are that he has four top-10 finishes in five starts despite a brutal putting stretch. Scheffler has been slightly better this season, but it's still enough to hold him back from a win. Photos from practice rounds showed Scheffler had a mallet putter in his bag this week, which could be a big change. Any week where Scheffler is even a neutral putter is a near-lock for a late Sunday tee time and he's won this event before.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoCorey Conners has been trending up nicely as February has turned to March. The Canadian has gained 9.6 strokes from tee to green in his last two events combined, including an impressive 7.5 combined strokes on approach in those appearances. However, a combined 5.7 strokes lost with the flat stick has kept him from truly challenging the leaders. If the 32-year-old can just find that average putting game again, much like he did in Phoenix a month ago, and keep the irons hot, Conners could be ready for his third career win soon. With three straight top-21 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, including a solo third in 2021, Conners makes for a great high-risk, high-reward play in all formats this week.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoSince winning the U.S. Open last year, Wyndham Clark has returned to the consistent yet underwhelming player he was before last season. Sure, he has a win to his name in 2024 at a shortened AT&T Pro-Am, but being shortened to 54 holes puts it on equal grounds of LIV, and we've seen what the leaders of the sport think about that. The former Oregon Duck has not had the best track record at Bay Hill, either, with a best finish of T34 in 2023. He bolsters solid stats that would fit the mold of this course -- 40th in strokes gained from tee to green (.636) and 53rd in strokes gained on approach (.325). However, his downfalls at this event have come from those two statistics more than his putter that typically ails him. At $9,900 on FanDuel, there are better options around him.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoLucas Glover finished tied for 35th place at last week's Cognizant Classic and has only missed the cut once in his five appearances in 2024. This week, he will be playing in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Glover's past performance at this tournament has been mixed, as he missed the cut last year but finished tied for 74th in 2022 and tied for 66th in 2021. However, it's worth noting that Glover's iron play has been exceptional over the past 12 months. He ranks in the 97th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway, which is particularly relevant for this tournament as over 34% of approach shots came from that distance last year. Despite his past results at Bay Hill, Glover's excellent approach play makes him a strong contender to include in DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoSungjae Im is in a funk. The South Korean is typically a ball-striking savant who can run up any leaderboard when his putter heats up. However, he has uncharacteristically lost strokes on approach in each of his last six rounds. Since Im's T5 finish at the Sentry to open the 2024 season, he's completely lost his irons. That makes this week especially difficult for golf bettors and fantasy managers alike, because the 25-year-old has remarkable history at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, placing 21st or better in all five career appearances, including two third place finishes. Most will steer clear until they see signs of life with the irons, but there's certainly a massive ceiling for Im if he finally turns the approach game around this week, especially at a value price of $8,000 on DraftKings.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoNick Taylor is set to play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week after his last appearance at The Genesis Invitational last month, where he finished T39. He has missed only one cut in his six 2024 appearances, which includes one win and one top-10 finish. Although he missed the cut at last year's tournament, Taylor will be eager to perform better this year. If he continues his impressive approach play, he has a good chance of competing this week. In the last 12 months, Taylor has ranked in the 78th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway, and this is important as over 34% of approach shots at last year's tournament came from 150-200 yards. Taylor has been performing well in 2024 and is worth considering for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoAdam Svensson missed his third cut of the year at the Cognizant Classic last week. He had previously finished T10 at The Genesis Invitational last month. Although Svensson has been solid on approach and off the tee this year, his putting has been a letdown. He has only gained strokes with his putter in one of his seven appearances. Nevertheless, Svensson is ready to bounce back and has his sights set on the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week at Bay Hill. Although he missed the cut in 2022, he played well at last year's tournament, finishing T24. His approach play has been impeccable, with his proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway ranking in the 85th percentile over the last 12 months. Although Svensson has played well at times this year, his inconsistency could make him risky to include in DFS lineups.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoNaturally, Emiliano Grillo wants to win at Bay Hill. The golfer from Argentina has had some mixed results at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was in the Top 10 three years ago during the final round. However, a 74 derailed those chances as Grillo settled for a tie for 21st. Last year, he again ended up at +1 but this time he ended just inside the Top 40. In 2024, Grillo has putted well gaining 0.64 strokes (19th on the PGA Tour). The golfer will need his 66.67% driving accuracy and a few more yards on his drives to thrive this week. Also, a hot putter would help. Those over par rounds have hurt Grillo at Bay Hill in the past.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoJustin Rose will need several facets of his golf game to work very well this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. For one, the English golfer cannot get into trouble like he did at the Cognizant Classic. Rose never got going last week and inched his way to a -1 through 72 holes. Putting has been his main strength ranking 21st on tour early on at 0.624 strokes gained. Too many weeks Rose has needed that putter to bail him out from errant tee shots and approaches. Ranking 145th off the tee and 164th approaching the green has made life for the 43-year old more difficult. If he does that this week, bogeys and worse could be on the scorecard often.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoThe last two rounds for Adam Hadwin were excellent at The Genesis Invitational. The Canadian golfer shot 67-65 to sneak into a tie for fourth place. Hadwin skipped the Cognizant Classic to get a week off. It will be a challenge for Hadwin as in 2023, the golfer shot +5 through nine holes at Bay Hill and never recovered. With an average drive of 293.3 yards and a long course of 7,466 yards, expect the Canadian to need to set up shots and make for easier putts. Three years before, Hadwin also shot +5 on the back nine on the opening Thursday. Negotiating the early nerves will be vital.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
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